Right in San Francisco

The Truth Deficit

There is good reason that the Soviet Union's newspaper was called Pravda (Truth), that George Orwell's 1984 had a Ministry of Truth, and that military academies have honor codes. Leadership requires that followers trust the leaders. Barack Obama beware.

When Obama was first discovered by the main stream media and the masses, he was given a pass. Tony Rezko was just a guy next door with whom he did a small real estate deal; for twenty years he didn't pay much attention to his "crazy uncle", the Reverend Wright; the bomb-throwing Bill Ayers was "just a guy in the neighborhood". His personal history - without transcripts, a birth certificate, or sources of support - should be taken as he wrote it. OK for round one - he was a charming guy with a charming story.

Phase II can be forgiven as political rhetoric. Of course nobody thinks that we can actually provide health care for 30 million people without anybody paying for it; of course you couldn't really expect him to eliminate lobbyists, earmarks, and back room deals; of course the stimulus plan couldn't really have been expected to get the economy going; of course we'll be fiscally responsible once we spend our way out of Bush's recession.  We can fix the problems once we get the big bills through.

Then came Congressman Joe Wilson and Justice Sam Alito with the message that the emperor has no clothes.  When Wilson cried out "you lie!" during an address to Congress, he was improper and factually wrong. He reacted to Obama's claim that health care coverage would not be extended to illegal immigrants. That is not in the House and Senate bills - a gap left to be fixed by immigration reform.

But when Supreme Court Justice Alito mouthed "not true" during the State of the Union, it is Obama who was improper and factually wrong. Obama must have known that he was on the edge of propriety in criticizing a Supreme Court decision in this forum, and that the "free speech" decision did not apply to foreign corporations as Obama claimed. It was a good applause line and he has a base to energize, but he did knowingly lie.  

But one's reputation for honesty is a precious commodity - particularly in a large country where most people do not know the president personally -  and Obama has lost it. A recent Rasmussen poll shows that a strong majority of voters do not believe Obama's claims that he has cut taxes for 95% of Americans, that he has started the economy growing, and that he has put 2,000,000 people to work. And he is asking these people to ignore the Congressional Budget Office and believe that his financial plans will somehow lead to fiscal stability. Fool me once, shame on you - fool me twice, shame on me. While the speech gave a bump to Obama's approval with his base, the "strongly disapprove" among independents moved from 42% to 50%.

Another resource squandered.

-----

This week's You Tube is an interview with Douglas Elmendorf, the geekish and honest Director of the Congressional Budget Office, discussing the 2010 federal budget projections for the next decade. The key question (at minute 2:00) from the Bloomberg reporters - is there any plan to do anything to fix it? Nope. 

Next week we'll try to make some sense out of the prospect for a jobs recovery - short term and long term. I'm trying hard to conjure up some optimism.

If you have any comments or suggestions, please make them directly on the blog or send an e-mail to bbowen7@comcast.net. I send a weekly reminder to a list of readers, and would be glad to add others to the distribution. Just let me know.  (No tweets at this point.)

bill bowen - 2/5/10 

The State of the Speech

It is interesting how many of the critiques of President Obama's State of the Union speech were written before he gave it - "Obama Pivots to Jobs"; "Obama Bids for Rebound"; "Message to Democrats: Stay the Course". I'll try to be objective, and use the test of whether the speech reflected a change of direction or added impetus to any major initiatives. And, it is important to recognize that a speech is just a speech unless it results in specific legislative proposals or executive orders.

First the credits:

-  In discussing energy, Obama seemed to advocate offshore drilling for oil and a significant expansion of nuclear power (a la McCain.) In promoting exports, he seemed to advocate for passage of the long-delayed free trade agreements with South Korea, Columbia, and Panama (a la McCain.) He claims a desire for bipartisanship, and has agreed to participate in House Republican Conference later this week. He sought Republican ideas on health care - and can find them at Gop.gov.

-  And he gave credit to George W. Bush (well, he didn't exactly phrase it that way) for the plan to successfully phase down American military presence in Iraq, and the TARP's rescue of the financial system.

- On the economy, he advocated using $30 billion of remaining TARP money for loans to small businesses through community banks. Better late than never.

-  While some would disagree, I would put the rescinding of "Don't Ask; Don't Tell" in this "credits" category. (To me, President Truman's 1948 executive order integrating the military provides encouragement.)

Then the debits:

-  Obama obviously doesn't get it on fiscal responsibility. A "spending freeze" on discretionary spending - to begin next year on budget items which have increased 70% in a decade and does not include "stimulus money" - satisfies nobody. And a toothless "bipartisan fiscal commission" to recommend spending and tax changes after the next election provides political cover for the Democrats who control everything budgetary. He couldn't even resist new spending programs - college loan foregiveness and subsidies for elder care.

-  He clearly understands the need to do something on jobs, but has no idea what. He included much of the Chamber of Commerce's wish list on tax cuts (ala McCain) - rejected a year ago in favor of the pork-laden Stimulus Bill, and this will do some good, but not soon enough to save his Democratic Congress.

- And national security really is a blank. False claims of moral leadership (abandonment of Iran's opposition movement), progress on control of nuclear weapons (except Iran and North Korea), and a comprehensive (unsigned and stalled) treaty with Russia should be challenged. And the silence about criminal trials for terrorists was deafening.

And the pivot?:

-  Health care. We still need Congress to pass comprehensive reform, now that we are so close. C'mon Harry.

-  Cap and Trade. Still a priority. Ignore the "deniers".  

-  Financial regulation reform. Maybe Tim Geithner will get out ahead of this if he survives.

-  And "Good government". There was acknowledgment of the people's disgust with Harry Reid's health care deals (with or without C-Span), credit for starting to rein in earmarks (ala McCain; well, there have been just a few thousand), a false "lobbyist-free" claim, and an inappropriate criticism of the Supreme Court decision on free speech by corporations and unions - with a clearly wrong and inflamatory claim that it applied to foreign corporations.  

   And finally, on style:

-  The pundits still refer to his great oratory - despite his finger wagging and 96 references to "I".  Over-exposure for sure.

-  And most irritating was the requirement to spend an hour watching Joe Biden and Nancy Pelosi in the background, particularly as she jumped to her feet to applaud at the mention of earmarks.

So, did it change any significant directions or add impetus?  It might edge his approval ratings back toward 50% for a few weeks, but otherwise I doubt it.

-----  

This week's You tube is a hilarious riff by John Stewart about the Scott Brown election, the event which showed that the emperor had no clothes. And for those questioning the Daily Show's general bias, here's a year-old interview with Stewart's 10 (all male) writers expressing their love for Obama.

bill bowen - 1/29/10