Competing Election Theories

    We have two competing "true believer" theories about the 2010 midterm elections.

    First, the Democratic theory, as articulated by President Obama and demonstrated by Speaker Pelosi. There was no repudiation of liberal policies, just the natural result of a terrible economy and an inability to explain their successes, particularly the benefits of the health care legislation. Before the 2012 elections the economy will improve, so what is important is to protect the landmark health care changes which will eventually be appreciated.

    Second, the (Tea Party) Republican theory, as articulated by John Boehner and Paul Ryan, that the public wants a dramatic return to smaller government, balanced budgets, and belief in American exceptionalism. It is not about communication or significantly about anger from having seen how sausage is made in Washington. It is about policy.

    Amid the cacophony, some good analysis will be presented. For three, I would suggest this Weekly Standard article which demonstrates that voter behavior correlated quite closely with attitudes on Obamacare (not just jobs), this American Thinker article which chronicles the demise of support for Paul Krugman's "deficits are good; huge deficits are better" mantra, and even Maureen Dowd channeling her conservative brother. People get the policy angle, and there are plenty of substantive spokespeople.

    But, what if the economy does improve and and in 2012 people are not so worried about 10% unemployment and 5 pending million foreclosures?  In the interim, it is important on the substance that Republicans really do have policies that drive the economy forward - clarity on a tax structure that encourages investment and hiring; a committed plan to get close to balancing the budget in a few years; courage to put Social Security on a sustainable path; an energy policy which fosters global competitiveness; and, yes, containment of health care costs. The Debt Reduction Commission offers a framework which should dominate discussion for the next couple of years.

    The stakes are not just who will win the next election - Pelosi seems dedicated to doing all that she can to help the Republicans on that. The task is to build a set of private sector economic policies to get us out of the ditch; policies which will be clearly more effective than the failed Obama/Reid/Pelosi public sector policies. Lets hope.

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    This week's hilarious video, courtesy of reader Themis Michos, conveys a German leader's response to the midterm elections.

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    And a thank you for those who have purchased my nuclear terrorism thriller, The Target. Please tell a friend and write a review on Amazon.

bill bowen - 11/12/10  

Comments

[Bill McCormick]

Harrycat--I havn't the time to postulate what they might or might not do. The strategy is clear: Obama needs to make the Repubs look like obstructionists while he, Reid and Pelosi guard the chicken house and the eggs they've laid. He will compromise just enough to look like he's cooperating and try to limit the damage Repubs can do. Repubs and Dems have solid contenders for his throne. If he does not get the economy moving and inflation shows up he is Jimmy Carter II. The Commission report will be food for debate. But unlikely for compromise. Most President's lose a few key people at the 4 year mark. Obama's staff has abandoned him. We shall see how crafty Obama can be in the face of stronger opposition. My guess is that he will use EPA to make his energy moves and play the blocking game in Congress.

[Harrycat]

Bill M. - Not too early re Simpson-Bowles to consider what is possible and what is not. There are many legs to this table. Pull out too many and it will fall. Success will call for both (all?) sides to compromise for the long term good of the country. All must be on the table for this to work, and the consequences of failure are catastrophic. Dealing with our debt must not be put off to another time. Now is the moment.

Not fair to blame Obama for earmarks, they have been around for generations. Both sides will have to agree what constitutes an earmark and then not put them in. Both parties are at fault.

The view from this point in history shows Obama coasting in to a second term. He will not be challenged by anyone in his party, and who will the Reps send against him. There appears to be no one of national stature.

[Bill McCormick]

harrycat: I'll wait for the final version to come out. Good to see Obama is now against earmarks after signing off on $1T of them in his first two years. And, by his own admission he should have set the tone for bipartisan gvernment when he took office. What a smoke and mirrors man he is. The far left deserve him as they now twist and turn as he tries to find a way to get reelected.

[Israel Drazin]

Hi Bill,
I received your book and I will read and review it. I lost your email address. Please sent it to my email address.
iddrazin@comcast.net

[Harrycat]

All readers - print out a copy of the Simpson-Bowles proposals and prepare to discuss. Enough with the platitudes and bomb throwers. What are we all prepared to do? and sacrifice?