Explaining American Elections to Londoners

A holiday visitor from London asked asked why I thought that Mitt Romney would win the 2012 presidential election. My answer, adjustable for other candidates, is that voters consider four things:

1. Ideology. America is a "center-right" country, with voters self-identifying as about 40% conservative, 40 % moderate, and 20% liberal. (Obama comes from the liberal wing of the Democratic Party; Hillary was the centrist.) Compared to Obama, the Republicans' differences are shades of gray. Advantage Republican.

2. Party affiliation. Some 31% of the voters identify as Democratic with a slightly fewer Republican and 40% or so independent. (This reflects a shift toward Republicans of a few percentage points in the past several years.) Party identification matters in presidential voting decisions because the president appoints judges, runs foreign affairs, and sets the direction for the federal government whether you like your party's candidate or not. Republicans are riled-up; Democrats less so. Toss-up.

3. Executive competence. Obama's primary claim of managerial experience in 2008 was that David Axelrod ran a good campaign. Few would argue that executive competence has been a strong point as president, "leading from behind" and all. Detachment from the private economy and a high unemployment rate are heavy albatrosses for any president to bear. Mitt can tout effective experience with the Salt Lake Olympics, with Bain Capital, and as Governor of Massachusetts. (Perry as a jobs-creating governor of Texas; Gingrich as a transformational House Speaker.) Advantage Republican.

4. Personality. Many would like to vote for the affable African-American over the Mormon millionaire - or the Texas governor or the former Speaker of the House for that matter. Obama plans to spend $1,000,000,000 painting the Republican as heartless in one way or another. Advantage Obama.

Beyond that it is necessary to get into the swamp of ethnic politics, swing states, the effect of redistricting, and a bunch of other factors. Among the most important, many of my Democratic friends talk hopefully about the disruptive possibility of a third party candidate - recognizing that Ralph Nader likely cost Al Gore the 2000 election and Ross Perot likely cost George H.W. Bush the 1992 election. Ron Paul and Donald Trump offer some hope for Democrats, as does the George Soros-like Peter Ackerman-led Americans Elect organization which has registered for the ballot in 13 states and hopes to tap in to anti-establishment anger, using an "internet convention" to select a "centrist" nominee. Good luck explaining that to foreigners.

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This week's video is PBS' initial endorsement of Americans Elect, laying out the liberqal talking points.

bill bowen - 12/30/11

Comments

[collaboraitve leader]

I'm really inspired with your writing talents as smartly as with the format to your blog. Is that this a paid topic or did you customize it yourself? Anyway stay up the excellent high quality writing, it is rare to see a nice blog like this one nowadays..

[DickG]

Bill M. - WINDPOWER COSTS; I was told 'EAGLE' in Kenyan was BARACK! I'll have to check my English to Kenyan Thesaurus. The Oil PIPILINE should use caution; there might be a 'Barack' interferring there too.

[Bill McCormick]

Harrycat---you should like him. If he is as Newt portrays him then he's very close to your preferred candidate. In Iowa the votes were mainly swayed by the religious votes that went away from Newt,Cain and Perry and went to Santorum. It won't work that way as much in other primaries. However, the voters in the primaries will vote for the most conservative choice they have. Come election time Romney will look like Reagan compared to Obama for them. Primaries are all about segments of parties and who can survive the process of elimination. It will soon be Romney versus one or two of them. Then it may be a contest but he is likely to have the votes to prevail by then. Santorum can only win if he can hold his own in the debates against Romney and Gingrich--not likely. He will hold the religious vote and much of the Tea Party vote, however. But, he doesn't look very Presidential when pressured whereas Romney is cool under fire. Personally, I prefer a moderate candidate to a far right one. Only way to get something done for the country. Look at what the far left has gotten us.

[Harrycat]

Romney spends four years campaigning and can't beat his numbers from last time in a very weak field. Three quarters of Reps nationally don't want him. Yes, he really is off to a great start.

[Bill McCormick]

For all my liberal friends---another move to make wind power work--kill the eagles!From MSNBC today!

The federal government is proposing to grant a first-of-its-kind permit that would allow the developer of a central Oregon wind-power project to legally kill golden eagles, a regulatory move being closely watched by conservationists.

The Interior Department’s Fish and Wildlife Service on Tuesday released a draft environmental assessment that would allow West Butte Wind Power LLC to kill as many as three protected golden eagles over five years if the company fulfills its conservation commitments.

It’s the first eagle “take permit” application to be received and acted on by U.S. Fish and Wildlife under the Bald and Golden Eagle Protection Act. (“Take” means to kill, harass or disturb the birds, their nests or their eggs.)

[Bill McCormick]

The Economy-----

I keep hearing the good news from Wall Street but---
---Unemployemnt is at 8.6% for those looking for work. But 15.5% if you include those that are no longer.
---Another Obama solar company went under.
---American Airlines and Kodak (rumored) are bankrupt. Sears and K Mart are post Christmas in big trouble.
---3rd Qtr GDP is now revised down to 1.8%
---One of the best retail stores on Wall Street is the Dollar Store.
---Construction was revised down to negative.
---6,000,000 home owners are not making their payments.
---Ethanol subsidies are expiring but the government is still requiring ethanol be added to gas keeping the price of corn rising.
---Natural gas is so plentiful in the USA that it is now below $3. It sells for $16 in China. You would think we would build a pipleine, liquify it and sell it overses, no?
---In 2011 $300 Billion dollars left the equity markets and went into gold and Bonds for safe haven. How are American companies supposed to grow and hire with no capital? We could lower long term gains taxes but No?
---The EU bond auctions are very soft. A new crisis is only days or weeks away. More money will be printed. The Eruo went below 1.30 today. Eu banks are supposed to be lending each other money but instead they are storing it with the ECB and earning .005%.
---When Austerity kicks in in EU their recession will worsen and US companies who sell there (GM) will slow down. The Volt was voted one of the two worst new products of 2012.
---Syria's Assad thumbs his nose at the US,UN and Arab League and continues to kill. Once Iran has the bomb they will sell it to their treaty buddy Assad.
---Meanwhile the Taliban are opening a headquarters in the middleeast just to negotiate with the US to get their prisoners back. At least if we give them back our Special Forces they are fighting in Afghanistan can kill em.
---Yep things are really looking good under this President's leadership.

[bill mccormick]

SO GOOD SO FAR-----

The right guy won.

The right guy emerged to debate.

Newt showed why he is not the guy to win. Anger replaced his new nice guy image,

Democrats and antiwar voters could not carry Paul to a win.

[DickG]

'A WIN IS A WIN' even by '8'; The complexity of the economic 'fix' is going to demand Romney,I think. Anyone less talented would probably delay 'recovery' again. As we pass 110% DEBT/GDP,'delay' could be fatal.

[Bill McCormick]

Iowa--the beginning of a renewed economic cycle or the end of free enterprise in America? Tonight has little statistical meaning but it can provide a lot of confidence building for the people of America who want to see America back on a solid economic path. If Romney or Santorum emerge as the leaders of this race then America will begin to look for leadership one more time. If instead we have to be subjected to more of the comedy of Paul or Perry (moderated by the "constant threat to run" of Trump) then America may begin to lose hope that there actually is a true CEO like leader for this country. Republicans must get their house in order and focus on a candidate who can and will win. We do not have time for a loss. And, we do not need to see this attempt by the minor players moving on into SC and Florida. Hopefully, Iowa followed by NH will cut the field to 2 or 3 and we'll get focused on their vision and game plan and move against the "I" man. A hard fought campaign between Santorum and Romney would provide the GOP a lot of enery going against Obama just as the battle between Obama and Hillary energized the Dems last time around. The next 6 hours will tell us a little. By Florida we might have a clear idea of where we are going.

[DickG]

WHAT WOULD A LONDONER THINK; about The US Government attempting to prevent 'VOTERS' from being identified ? Would the A.G.object to the 'Purple Ink Wells' ?

[DickG]

LONDON STYLE;Start your year with the IMAGE of our 'LEADER' at a full 'HOUSE OF REPS'. quorum; taking rapid fire questions and hopping up & down like the British Prime Minister. Might have shaken out an actual FACT.

[DickG]

ROMNEY'S 59 POINT PLAN FWD BY Dean Hubbard,Columbia School of Business: Notes that Romney asked ;why won't policymakers trace the "seeds" of the 'CRASH ? Secondly, why does the Administration focus on The Growth OF Government wrather than Economic Growth ? Hubbard summarizes how Romney's 4% Growth Target is developed.
"But how? A growth agenda for the nation requires several parts: (1) an emphasis on productivity growth, with policies to support saving and investment, innovation and research, trade, education, and training; (2) a budget framework that does not threaten our fiscal health; (3) tax policy that enhances economic growth; (4) regulation that balances growth with concerns about safety and soundness; and (5) a healthy financial system that meets the needs of savers and borrowers.
These policy elements have three themes in common. First, they are unabashedly about long-term growth, not about papering over structural economic problems with “stimulus.” Second, they note that long-term policy uncertainty about runaway entitlement spending, or threats of higher tax rates, or increasing regulation, or failing to pursue global markets, constrains household and business spending today. Third, they are the key to shared prosperity."
THE FORMULA: Entrepeneurs + Business + Innovation = Exponential Wealth
Wealth = Social Change.
The Administration seems to constantly get the 'Cart before the Horse'.

[DickG]

EITHER WAY WE REDUCE SPENDING: If the Administration's 'APPROVALS' stay above 12%; The 'Department Of Education' has to admit failure.

[Bill McCormick]

It's The Economy Stupid!

Try as he might the President will have a very difficult time running away from his economic record. If the Republicans stay on message then unless we get some form of miracle economic bounce from all this international money printing the President will be on the ropes come November. Romney is clearly the best candidate to defeat him. The others are attractive to different components of the GOP but once nominated Romney will be the solid choice of the GOP and moderate independent voters. If the economy worsens then even some Democrats will vote for Romney's leadership potential.

But, the Republicans with their flavor of the month candidate swings in the polls and their line in the sand bluffs in the House are making it as dificult to defeat Obama as possible. The GOP is pretty leaderless at this point as well. IF they can unite and follow someone they have a very good chance of taking the Senate back at this point. If not then the Democratic strategy of holding either the White House or the Senate may prevail. The GOP will have it's hands full with the smoke and mirrors "I" man telling it like it isn't and the Senate majority leader playing political chess with GOP Congressional leaders. I have a feeling this is going to be a very frustrating year for Americans of both parties.