The Newt Question(s)

Newt is different. The first three anti-Romney's started with little name recognition and, fighting for attention in a crowded field, were perhaps unfairly painted as one or two dimensional: Bachmann (woman; social issues); Cain (pizza man; 999); Perry (Texas governor; lousy debater). Under the media's glare one or two missteps could be fatal. In contrast Newt has a long history with the media and older voters and fills the room; the debate format of the election cycle has been perfect for him; in response to any criticism there is the "but what about..." reaction. I like Romney, but find myself asking:

1. Would Newt be a good president? Is he smart enough? Check. Does he understand how Washington works? Check. Could he assemble a financial team to address our short term and long term financial problems? Check. Would he project confidence internationally? Check. Would he address the big issues affecting the future of the nation? Check.

2. What about his policy positions? Would he bring fresh thinking to large problems - health-care; immigration? Check. Would he be the House Speaker Gingrich of the 90s with his Contract with America leading the fight for balanced budgets and government reform? Or would he be the private citizen gadfly of the Bush era, advocating for the health-care individual mandate, Medicare Part D, sweeping immigration reform, and housing largesse? Criticism of Paul Ryan's 2010 budget proposal as "right wing social engineering? - perhaps a plaintive cry for attention; maybe a disqualifying true reflection of orientation. Count on big ideas - liberal or conservative.

3. What about his personal problems? Lobbying for Freddie Mac? - ugh, definitely an "inside the beltway" profiteer, but at least he's not a banker. Serial matrimonial unfaithfulness? - a problem with the Christian conservatives and women. Americans are not as forgiving as the Italians (Berlusconi) or the French (Strauss-Kahn) unless you are a Democrat (Clinton or Kennedy or Kennedy.) Perhaps his eleven-year marriage to Callista constitutes adequate atonement.

4. Could he win the election? This is really question number one for most Republicans. (For the Democrats who hope that the Tea Party wave has crested, Sorry.) Public polls, as reflected by Real Clear Politics, generally show Romney running stronger by low single digits against Obama nationally and in key states, but there are outlier polls and Gingrich is definitely surging. Expert pundits disagree who would be stronger. Given the Obama campaign's focus on Romney, it would seem that the White House's internal polling shows Romney to be stronger opponent and that they would like to help defeat him in the primaries.

With the Iowa caucuses on January 3 and the New Hampshire primary on January 10, the contest will move from Gingrich's forte of debates to a phase where Romney's superior fund-raising and ground organization will hold the advantage. For one, I would love to see a series of Gingrich-Obama debates, but not enough roll the dice. The good news is that either would be a fine president.

And a piece of advice for "Newt 3.0" if he feels a need to break out - "True Financial Reform" is a popular cause looking for a courageous champion.

------

This week's bonus is comments on Newt by two well-regarded conservative commentators - George Will and Charles Krauthammer .

bill bowen - 12/2/11

Comments

[Bill McCormick]

KING not a Newt fan--- NY Republican Rep today announced he is hoping that Romney is the Republican Nominee. He recalled Newt's tenure as House Leader as rocky and unproductive ending in Republicans dumping him. Asked if others agreed with him he said those who served with Newt are not anxious to see him nominated. His view as he was quized is that Newt is all about Newt and continues to show the same tendencies as a candidate for President. He said Newt is extremely intelligent but lacks focus on seeing things through. He also compared him to Obama as an intelligent guy who will not listen to anyone else or compromise. So, is Newt charming the country with his intelligence just as Obama did? According to King he is and the country would be better served to have Romney a guy who listens, gets consensus and gets things done. Interesting comments.

[Bill McCormick]

You cannot lead by--

I just listened to the I man one more time. He knew this down vote was coming on the Consumer appointment. And, yet he never calls in the leadership of Congress and negotiates anything. He also know there will be an attempt to link the Keystone approval with the payroll tax extension. Instead of meeting to discuss alternatives he continues to "paint the GOP as the enemy of the middle class". Calling press conference after press conference to discuss his inability to get anything to happen. In a way he is just showing how inept he is at leadership. He really never tries. His strategy continues to be make the Republicans lok like they won't negotiate when he never even tries. It is not going to work.

[Harrycat]

To Al B. Please re-read my comments. I did not say that most conservatives believe so. What I did say was that a hand picked group of Reps at the "debate" apparently do. Whoever picked these folks did the Rep party a great disservice for allowing the whole Rep do be painted this way.

I do hope that all Reps (and all others) reflect on the values represented by this group and reflect on their own values. In my view those four attitudes are completely unAmerican and need to be exposed. Reps need to disavow not just the people in the room, but those who put them there.

[Bill McCormick]

Caught up in his ego----

For a while Donald Trump seemed to be making some good cases for US businesses and was a refreshing voice in the Republican party. But, now he seems to be trying to become the "King Maker". Somehow he has become a moderator for the candidates who show up and take part in what appears to be a game show program where the winner gets the prize of "Donald's endorsement"--that is if he is good enough. And, if he is not then, of course, come mid April when the Don becomes a free agent he will run as an independent assuring an Obama victory. I think the Don got one too many Greta interviews. Of course, this just happens to be at the same time his new book is released. I suppose if Romney doesn't appear and Newt does than the Don will bless Newt for paying his dues.

[Bill McCormick]

Well presented, Al.

[Al B.]

Unfortunately Bill Bowen's analysis probably is correct--the choice will boil down to Gingrich or Romney. I think it makes a huge difference,however, as to which candidate the Republicans select.

I may be naive, but Gingrich appears to share a number of negative traits with Obama (albeit from opposite ends of the spectrum). Both are arrogant, contentious, and unable to compromise with anybody. Witness Barack's inability to press his agenda (other than Obamacare), or even present a budget, despite owning both houses of Congress for half of his Term. Witness Newt's banishment from the Speakership for arguable reasons, because he turned so many people into enemies. Do we want to subject our great country to another 4 years of deadlock bickering, which probably will be the case if either Obama or Gingrich is elected.

As Harry Cat points out, Newt carries a lot of baggage. MSM will love to slice into Newt. That already is happening. Obama must be hoping that the knives stay in their scabbards until Newt is nominated because Newt is his easier target by far. Most of the USA is somewhere in the middle of the political spectrum and many will remember Newt as a take-no-prisoner politician. Not a hopeful trait for those believing that compromise between the opposing political poles is necessary for the well being of the USA. [Obama has lost all credibility on that score. He won my vote last election because I believed his pitch that he would compromise and unite--That lie will not work with me again]

It really is hard to find fault with Romney. What can he be attacked for? Flip-flopping? As Governor of Massachusetts, he had the common sense to fashion a health care compromise that most of the Massachusetts citizens wanted. How can MSM or Obama attack that as a negative? States Rights conservatives should not find fault either. Obama certainly cannot run on "accomplishments", and Romney is a very difficult target to demonize with any credibility. [Not that MSM and Obama's campaign won't try]

PS--I am very puzzlede that Harry Cat believes that most conservatives are in favor of torturing, electrocuting would-be illegal immigrants,or denying health car3e to those in urgent need. Maybe Harry Cat should expand his group of acquantances? And, having attended "Occupy Charleston" rallies, I did not find any unifying "anger". Rather, I found a rather eclectic group of causes (most of which I agreed with), such as withdrawal from Iraq, making the Federal Reserve more transparent as it commits our money, etc. True-this was Charleston, where the citizenry frowns on pooping on police cars, smashing shop windows, and provoking police as a legitimate exercise of "free speach".

[Bill McCormick]

Harrycat: Let's take the points one at a time without the implication you are making the Bill is calling out.

1. Perry executes prisoners. Perry carries out the will of Texans who found them guilty and had reason to ask the state to execute them. There are plenty of people in both parties who believe in the death penatly.

2. The GOP favors torture. Many people favor the use of enhanced interogation methods in order to save massive loss of life. In both parties. It is not as if the GOP favors torture as an every day method of interogation. Water boarding with the ok of a judge and the President is ok with many people. We have addressed this one before.

3. Electrocuted at the fence is a distortion of the situation in which an electrified fence is used to inhibit intruders from climbing it. Low watt high voltage electricity is harmless but it does sting. I'm not in favor of it but it is not to imply the GOP is advocating electrocution as in death.

4.An uninsured injured person denied treatment at an emergency room is once again a situation that has a lot of variables. Near death? Contagious? Legal citizen or illegal immigrant? etc. In my view we treat em, ask em for their identification and if illegal send them home. If legal citizens we then figure out how to pay back the system.

Your 4 ways of making a general statement about GOP members is frankly dishonest. But, then the smoke and mirrors President we have is doing similar things every day as he tries to pit us against each other rather than negotiate bipartisan solutions to our problems. He is simply trying to hold his gains from the first 2 years by either holding the Senate or the White House. With little substance to lean on he has to resort to demeaning the opposition. I have lots of differences with GOP leaders but not as many as I have with Obama.

[bill bowen]

Harry: You miss the point. Your comment was "Does anybody wonder why I can't see any hope for the GOP base?" I am the GOP base. I do not want to be lumped together and vilified for the comments of a few (and they are a very few) any more than the Obama acolytes want to be lumped together with the Occupy folks pooping on cop cars. There was a hope to identify (nay, an effort to publicize) the Tea Party as a group of racist fanatics - a media effort which has turned out to be utterly false. Your effort is to vilify the Republican base as reflective of a few people who act out at debates. You may not like it, but the population identifiews itself as 40 % conservative; 40% neutral; and 20% liberal. There are a whole lot of people in that first 40%, and almost nobody in what you categorize as "the GOP base". Similarly there are a lot of people in the 20% who should not be categorized as Occupy crazies.

[Harrycat]

Sorry Bill B - bad analogy. The Occupy movement is not about politics. They have been quite clear that they are not part of some other group. They are upset with the system that has allowed the current mess to occur. They are mad at Reps and Dems or whoever has been in charge. They are not a political movement. Would they vote Dem? Probably, but that is not why they are camping out.

At the debate the crowd was explicitly Reps. No others were there. I don't think even journalists were allowed in. They were egging on politicians whom they assumed agreed with them. And no one told them just how out of bounds they were. All accepted the premise: execution, torture, electrocution of immigrants, no ER treatment. Except perhaps Ron Paul and Jon Huntsman.

It is incorrect to call the Occupy movement a Dem operation. If either party can figure out how to harness their energy that party would gain a great advantage. There may be only a few thousand Occupiers, but the anger is very wide and deep.

[Bill McCormick]

Hidden War?

Two big explosions in Iran could signal the beginning of the war with Iran. But, then who did them? Israel? The US drones? One took out a Uranium enrichment plant and the second took out a solid fuel Missile testing facility and several key missile technology experts as well as the leader of Iran's missile program. Prior to these explosions there have been a cyber attack on their software and several key assasinations of Nuclear technology experts.

On the Iranian side they have shot down a drone or two but then that happens without much fanfare in Pakistan and Afghanistan and probably Somalia, Yemen and Iraq as well. And, Iranians have identified and claimed to have captured several CIA agents. You may recall that after the failed raid in Iran by President Carter the Iranians wiped out our CIA friends as well.

So, where are we in the attempt to slow or stop Iran? Fighting behind their borders, supporting Israel efforts with intelligence, or watching the Israeli agents covertly conducting the war? No matter but for the liberal base of President Obama it must be worrisone that one attack too many could trigger a response we are not ready to respond to. Or are we? At this point the Iranian's are calling them military research accidents. And, the next question is what are we doing about the underground enrichment and warhead design sites that are sure to be hidden somewhere?

[bill bowen]

Harry: That's kind of like going to an Occupy Wall Street encampment, looking at the grungy inhabitants, and equating them to the Democratic base. Speaking on behalf of my Democratic friends, it would be insulting to equate the few on the edge to the base.

[Harrycat]

Another "debate" last night. Apparently the big applause lines were:

- Perry has executed 234 death row prisoners
- The GOP favors torture
- Illegals who try to cross the borders should be electrocuted at the fence
- An injured person without health care insurance should be denied treatment at an ER

Does anyone wonder why I can't see any hope for the GOP base?

[Bill McCormick]

You cannot lead by--

Antoher glaring example of Obama's inability to lead. Today at a visit to a project that added 250 jobs the President couldn't help himself but to lash out at the Republican Senators "they voted down the payroll tax emption" he proclaimed without a single word for Senate Democrats who voted down the payroll exemption." A leader would have acknowldged both and then said simply "Now that both sides have shown their hands lets sit down and negotiate a comprmise and get it passed." Then he went on to put Bill Clinton to work once again as he always does when he gets in trouble. Leading through compromise is just not in the man's blood. Then he will tell reporters he is not campaignng just talking to the American people.

[Bill McCormick]

Thanks , Bill. As you know I have shared many more comments with you and others directly rather than putting all of them on your site. With my liberal friends playfully engaging my comments and logic I thought it would be good to test the liberal waters more broadly with people who don't know my personality. So I did so. Now that I see how frustrated liberals are on the President's economic incompetence and their response to my thoughts I've decided I should run for President. But, a closer look at my hidden lifestyle,my need for my company to remain neutral and my Obama like passion for golf I've decided to pass--for now. Rest easy, Harrycat! Here is an interesting conversation I heard a few hours ago:

One of the Fed men was asked about the unemployment number and if that mean't good news for the President. His answer mirrored mine of this morning. he said politically the 8.6% will sell but if you look at how fast the labor pool is falling you would have to look very closely to the numbers to understand what is really happening. Asked about the Fed "fixing things" his response was very interesting. He indicated that the Fed (and the ECB) is a quick fix to buy time for the governments to fix their problems. He likened it to deploying a life boat, buying you time until you are rescued. In essence he says that we have bought time and if Congress does not begin to fix the problems (and the EU as well) then time will run out. Asked what the time frame was he indicated that the US is four years away from being in the same situation as Greece. That in itself shows how urgent this election is to America. You can see the Fed is constantly deploying lifeboats--whether they have no other option or they are trying to string things out until the election I do not know. But right after Obama ran to the EU we had the Fed and IMF bail them out. Now, in anticipation and support for the Dec 9 meeting in EU he has deployed Giethner to meet with Italy,Spain,Greece and France. (Note: not Germany as of yet). This is likely to preempt a bank failure or more likely to let them know that AUSTERITY must be implemented if America is to join in the bailout effort. Sadly, the IMF President is running around South America begging for contributions to bailout Europe. The social programs of the western world instituted in return for political power are coming home to roost. The good news: American companies are so lean that productivity is sky high and profits are still rising. The bad news hiring will lag until the Congress begins to fix the problems. The last time that happened was under Newt. Just as an aside anyone seen the Egyptian election results? Not good news!

[bill bowen]

Bill M: It is good to see you quantitatively tracking responses to your comments in places such as MSNBC. I do a bit of that on Seeking Alpha, but that is a financial site (which I visit daily anyway) with a touch of political commentary. I applaud all efforts to have our collective voice heard.

[bill bowen]

The period of Newt's speakership was certainly a contentious one. Monica Lewinsky; a short shut down of government; the Contract with America; 84 ethics charges filed by the Democrats. The one that stood was for diverting tax exempt money to support a college course that he taught. I never understood the issue and don't find it disqualifying for somebody who would otherwise be a good president. The Republican vibe that Newt is harnessing is a pervasive anger about the president and the federal government (Tea Party; Occupy issues) and a belief that he can and will act and speak forcefully. Huntsman has many good features, but he comes across as a wimp IMHO.

[Harrycat]

You didn't mentioned that he is the only Speaker who has ever been sanctioned for misbehavior in office. How can conservatives ever get behind someone with so much baggage?

I think it is a measure of how much Reps don't want (don't trust) Romney. The whole summer and fall has been a succession of alternatives and the impossible-to-consider Newt is the last in line. Now, if Huntsman had ever been given a chance.....

[Bill McCormick]

Hooray! Unemployment down to 8.6% OOps! Employers added 120,000 people but 50,000 were(likely) retail seasonal workers. And, just as last month when 200,000 ran out of benefits or gave up looking for work this month 600,000 came off benefits or quit looking. This has reduced the labor pool by 800,000 in the past 2 months and is the real reason the rate dropped. Roughly 16,000,000 are out of work and 25,000,000 are under or not employed. December will see more easonal hires and another huge drop in people off benefits or no longer looking for work. This is a Santa Claus moment for the President but he knows even if the press does not that when the season ends and the retail layoffs occur or if Congress extends the unemployment benefits once again that the rate will rise once again. Unemployment rate is a very misleading way to measure real unemployment. I posted this on MSNBC and the results:

Agree 52 Disagree 6 Wow!

[Bill McCormick]

ON Newt---and Romney. The only real question that people who feel we need leadership need to answer is which one can beat Obama AND hopefully carry the Senate with them? If Newt gets the podium nationally and can become a Reagan like figure he has a chance even as the more conservative. He will definitly trounce Obama in debates as he will roll back the smoke and mirrors answers and reveal the true motives of the Obama "I" man. Romney on the other hand if nominated, will challenge every weakness of Obama: lack of business experience, socialist economic policies, poor tax reform, poor international leadership,over regulation and his achillies heal--helathcare. He will hold his own with Obama in debates. At this point I think both will beat Obama but a Romney-Newt ticket would be a gigantic challenge for Obama-Biden to face. And, have a real chance to carry the Senate. A Newt-Romney ticket will be less formidable and Romney likely to turndown.

[DickG]

In Greenville; One Hour with Hannity on FOX last night. All appearances in Greenville were sold out. Several hundred a plate. Audience , including myself, very attentive. The PROBLEM - MY WIFE.
His daughter has released her BOOK on the subject of MOM & DAD. Jury is out on that one; but its a BIG ONE !