Predicting the Senate

    With America's most despised politician Nancy Pelosi speaking inanely about Romney's NAACP appearance and exploited Jewish Republicans, there is virtually no chance that the voters in the 435 Congressional districts will make her speaker again. It would be nice if some of her magic could rub off on the Senate.    

     The current Senate has 51 Democrats, 47 Republicans, and 2 independents who caucus with the Democrats. The Vice President breaks ties, so if Romney wins, the Republicans need to gain three seats; if Obama it is four. Of the 33 seats up for election, 10 are held by Republicans, 22 by Democrats and one by retiring independent Joe Lieberman. The math seems easy, but for sooth it is not so.

    The two most reliable pollsters on Congressional elections, Charlie Cook (leans Democrat) and Stu Rothenberg (leans Republican) paint similar pictures.  About half of the seats are "safe", the Republicans will likely gain Nebraska and lose Maine. Beyond that Republicans have a good chance of pick-ups in Missouri and North Dakata and a lesser chance of losing Massachusetts. That leaves a likely net plus one or two with the other required two or three coming from Montana where they enjoy a small lead, and Virginia and Wisconsin which are real toss-ups. Net plus one to five. As a wild card, Democrats are advertising for weaker Republicans in upcoming primaries in Wisconsin and Missouri, as Harry Reid did successfully in Nevada in 2010.  And another wild card -  in Maine Angus King  is heavily favored  to replace Republican Olympia Snowe - he is running as an independent and is expected to caucus with the Democrats, but if the stars align he may feel that he could accomplish more by giving the Senate to the Republicans.

     The flood of money in 2012 politics is obvious in the Senate.  Noteworthy is Massachusetts liberal  Elizabeth Warren's $6.9 million take in the first quarter - twice anybody else. Beyond the individual candidates, the Senate Democratic Campaign committee has raised some $78 million while the Republican counterpart has raised $69 million.  And then there are the Democratic and Republican Super PACs with millions to spend in the contested races. It is nice to live in "ad free" California where there is no contested election.  

    Like the 2010 cycle when S.C. Senator Jim DeMint led efforts in primaries to elevate conservative candidates such as Rand Paul (KY), Marco Rubio (FL), Mike Lee (UT), and Pat Toomey (PA),  his $8 million Senate Conservatives Fund has targeted inadequately conservative party favorites - successfully promoting Richard Mourdock (IN) and Ted Cruz (TX) while losing in the primaries to more moderate conservatives in Nebraska (Deb Fisher won), and Utah (Orrin Hatch won). In any case, the Senate Republicans will move a bit further to the right, and there is plenty of evidence that the Tea Party lives.

    Not yet burbling is the future of Mitch McConnell who has teamed with Harry Reid to make the Senate the place where all good House bills go to die without embarrasing the President. One can imagine Jim DeMint's demand that (perhaps with a different Republican leader) supermajority Senate rules not be allowed to block House legislation headed for the desk of President Romney. But that's getting a bit ahead of events.

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   This week's video is of Mitt Romney receiving the endorsement of Polish freedom leader Lech Walesa, two weeks after Barack Obama nabbed the endorsement of Venezuelan Socialist dictator Hugo Chavez. No contrast on foreign policy?   

bill bowen - 8/3/2012

Comments

[Bill McCormick]

HOLD ON TO YOUR GOLD! This morning the Fed Chief from Boston on CNBC advocated a policy of open ended QE. Now that is a short version of saying print money in whatever amount and for however long we need to until we get the economy growing at a rapid pace. When asked what that mean't for the Fed Balance Sheet he said that under the Fed's mandate it can print money and buy bonds and mortgage backed securities unti they all are on the Fed Balance Sheet if they want. OMG: With a President in mothballs and a dysfunctional Congress the new economic policy of the US could be a Fed in full out quantitative easing. Left unsaid was that might be necessary to get this President reelected. With a Congress and a President pushing for more spending and a Fed printing money to pay for it the future is clear: dramically rising interest rates and inflation. Forget the years of Clinton this is clearly the path we followed Jimmy Carter down the trail to disaster. The new Obama economic policy can be named the "Rumpelstiltskin Policy".

[DickG]

TODAY'S MARKET JUMP: I suspect a serious mis-read in the 'spike'. Unemployment actually increased to 8.3%. For many awaiting a clear Romney 'signal'to re-enter; this was it. I don't see any other reason. Nothing from Europe; Greeece actually is pushing for extensions in their supposed 'reforms'. As usual 'The Lame Stream Media' might be at it again. Maybe they had better stay with the 'Chik Fil A ' bulletins.

[DickG]

TODAY'S MARKET JUMP: I suspect a serious mis-read in the 'spike'. Unemployment actually increased to 8.3%. For many awaiting a clear Romney 'signal'to re-enter; this was it. I don't see any other reason. Nothing from Europe; Greeece actually is pushing for extensions in their supposed 'reforms'. As usual 'The Lame Stream Media' might be at it again. Maybe they had better stay with the 'Chik Fil A ' bulletins.

[DickG]

TURNING TO 'STARBOARD': As announced this AM on 'The Mike Gallagher Show'; North Carolina polling is showing a 5 pt Romney 'lead'. This following a memorable suggestion by the Governor (months ago) that a "postponement of the National Presidential Election might be considered". Shortly thereafter announcing her resignation at the end of the term.

[Bill McCormick]

SOMETHING GOOD? Today's numbers on job growth gave hope to a starving stock market. Up 163,000. Hopefully, it will be the beginning of a trend toward hiring. But, July is historically the second highest seasonally adjusted employment month of the year. Let us hope we begin to grow again. Unfortunately, wall Street numbers show declining revenues and increasing profits. That is a short term positive. Decling revenues have to lead to job cuts when combined with increased profits created by job cuts. In Virginia we are seeing federal contractors laying off some people associated with their Federal work. Perhaps the extension of federal budgets through the election will help minimize it.

SENATE: Here in Virginia , Bill, it is hard to get a grip on the election as George Allen is not really exciting the Republican crowd as an old politician from days gone by. A new face might have been better. However, he could very well benefit from the turnout ratio as Republicans seem hell bent on getting to the polls to make a change at the top. I know many small business owners and union workers who voted for Obama who will vote Romney this time. And, I know some Democrats who voted for Obama who do not want to vote Republican who will stay home so there is hope no matter what the polls say.