(Republican) Conventional Thinking

     So, was it an inflection point? 

     The common political wisdom is that voters re-elect an incumbent without much thought if things are going OK, that folks will take a look at the alternative if the economy is awful, that the Obama campaign has made a large early effort to paint Mitt Romney as a heartless extremist, and at this point the race is a toss-up. The Tampa convention was the first great opportunity to demolish the Democrats' greatest (only?) story line. How'd it go?

    First, do no harm.

        -  The libertarian wing was kept within the tent. There was some huffing and puffing about rules for delegate selection, but the 190 Ron Paul delegates (out of 2286 total) behaved. Gary Johnson will carry the Libertarian Party banner in the election, but Romney will have the vast majority of their votes.

        -  The social conservatives had their moments with Rick Santorum's and Mike Huckabee's speeches and the platform carried the traditional broad injunction against abortion, but few outside of the Left will see this as significant.

         -  The protestors were kept at bay and Joe Biden thought better of his initial plan to cause mischief by campaigning in Tampa. No Chicago 1968.

    The big stuff.

        -  Romey's speech can best be summarized in his phrase that Obama promised to make the oceans recede and to heal the planet; Romney would do everything that he could for people and their families.  He had the right level of detail, the right tone on the nation having hoped for Obama's success, and a high degree of American exceptionalism. The very telling stories about his ministering to church members and his support for women as governor of Massachusetts deserve media coverage, but will probably need to be made a subject of campaign advertisements.   

        -   Ann Romney was magnificent. Peggy Noonan's observation that more specific vignettes, "show, don't tell" in literary terms, has merit, but her most poignant stories are about Mitt's reaction to her cancer and MS and she shares Mitt's discomfort in talking about herself. Her comment that he views helping others as a privilege and not a political talking point leaves the filling in of examples to others.

        -  The Republicans offered a serious discussion to a serious public. Chris Christie's claim that the public will appreciate a party that tells the truth will be tested - particularly on entitlements. With Paul Ryan's presentation of the Romney economic agenda - including the "bring on the Medicare fight" challenge -  there could not be a better salesman for the medicine that is needed. It is fortunate that the Republicans could offer a string of governors - Christie, Walker, Kasich, Haley, Martinez, Fortuno, McDonnell  - to demonstrate that the application of conservative principles can balance budgets, lower taxes, and grow employment.   

        -  Neither Romney nor Ryan has solid foreign policy credentials. It is a shame that Condi Rice - who shares the intellectual leadership of the party - will not be a fixture in a Romney administration. The party has obviously moved beyond the other foreign policy speaker, John McCain.  

        -  All of the speakers got the memo to keep it positive. The media ignores the difference between Republicans attacking policies and results and Democrats attacking people, but the speakers were consistent on the prior. Let's see what Charlotte holds next week.  

    And the nuances.

        -  The significance of 42 year old policy wonk, Tea Party favorite, "Young Gun" Paul Ryan is compelling. Like Bill Buckley in the 60s, he legitimizes the intellectual argument for small government. Whether the Republican Party has coopted the Tea Party or vice versa is unclear, but the party has clearly moved beyond the "big government conservatism" of the Bush era - a message emphasized by his absence.      

        -  Beyond Ryan, one has to be impressed by the number of 35 to 50 year old rising stars, the number of legitimate women and minority speakers, and the number of swing states with Republican governors. The Democratic convention will provide an interesting contrast. Perhaps it is inherent that the incumbent president will suck up all of the money and publicity, but the second tier of Biden, Pelosi, and Reid should give Democrats pause.

    Now begins the 10 week sprint to the finish line. Obama is stuck with the economy and sees his best chance as continued vilification of Romney and Ryan. With a few hundred million dollars and three presidential debates, Romney should be able to demonstrate that he is not only experienced and competent, but also a reasonably nice guy. He has a lot of material to work with, and Tampa was a big step in that direction. Confidence grows.

                                                            -----   

    This week's video is Obama-endorser turned Republican Artur Davis' speech - one of the best of the convention - aimed at the millions of 2008 Obama voters with buyers remorse.  

bill bowen - 8/30/12  

Comments

[Bill McCormick]

RIGHT ON SPOT----Clinton made the best case he could for Obama's reelection cleverly using himself as a model of experience and taking the opportunity to campaign for Hillary 4 years early. Basically it came down to "I been there" and we just need to give him more time--"he will succeed". So, when was Clinton ever there? The closest Clinton ever was to Obama's situation was when he passed on the opportunity to kill Bin Laden. As for the economy he defeated GHB because of the "read my lips no new taxes" compromise he made with Democrats that Clinton seized on to win. The economy he inherited had no similarity to the situation Obama inherited. The financial crisis, however, was already being treated with Bush's TARP bill. None the less in true Clinton style he made a great show for Obama's sake.

I actually watched the speech during the game and then again after the game. I thought it was interesting how long the speech was delayed waiting for Obama to sow up. Then finally later than most were awake I think it was announced Obama would join Clinton after the speech and he went on. Perhaps it was payback for something between them or perhaps Obama was late getting back from the golf course. But, the late night start and the football game had to take it's toll on the national audience.

Clinton is not usually a man of smoke and mirrors. But, last night he spent an hour showcasing his Presidency, bashing Congressional Republicans as if Senator Reid and Obama were constantly offering conpromises to their positions and bills passed in the House. If ONLY the republicans had caved in to the Democrats we would be much further along by now. BUT, give Obama another 4 years and he will produce! I suspect he will. He will produce another $5T in debt. He will have Bernanke put another Trillion or two dollars on the Fed balance sheet and circulate another 2 Trillion in printed dollars. He will put the throttle on the only thriving industry we have in America: oil and gas now keeping Pennsylvania, the Dakotas and Texas afloat. He will solidify his healthcare changes. He will issue Executive order upon order to implement social change and environmental suicide. And, businesses will continue to seek their revenues overseas.He will continue to decimate the military. And, he will continue to put the world in a currency printing war as a substitute for econmic responsibility and entitlement reform.

Meanwhile, Hillary will begin her campaign and financing for her run to carry on. What a great husband he is! Right, Monica? Reminds me of the opening of the convention when Dems declared the late Teddy Kennedy the "champion of women's rights". I suspect Mary Jo's parents might disagree. Oh and so might the girl assaulted by his nephew while he wandered about in his drunken stupor. Or his ex wife who finally gave up. Some things in politics are really puzzling. Don't think the Dems could come up with a real role model? Maybe John Edwards?

[DickG]

NOT TO MENTION OBAMACARE; Lady Doctor summarizes 2700 pages and the admin thereof:

http://www.youtube.com/watch?feature=player_embedded&v=vdnY8r7_fLw

[Bill McCormick]

A FEW THOUGHTS---brilliantly composed speech last night by the First Lady and delivered with style. I thought it was designed to mimic and counter the speech of Ann Romney which basically presented the Romneys as people who give back in both money and service. Michelle made the case that despite his $15,000,000 in earnings the past three years the President has somehow forsaken the big bucks to serve his fellow Americans in depressed areas of the country. She also mirrored Ann's testimony that Mitt was a great family man and father to his boys by telling us that despite his 121 rounds of golf and his job as President he is too a great family man and father. So perhaps the First Couple did not watch "a minute" of the Republican Convention but the strategists and the speech writers did. Hopefully, it wasn't written by Biden or we could be looking at a VP impeached for plagiarism (joke). So I give a tie to the ladies.

A few attempts to mislead yesterday:

George W Bush passed the TARP bill and even knowing Democrats were willing to admit it was that act that saved the financial system. It also provided the funds that were loaned to GM and Chrysler for the bailout. Obama followed through on both of those initiatives. ALL of the GM and TARP funds have not been paid back.

The bailout did help restructure GM and Chrysler at the expense of US Taxpayers and the GM creditors and shareholders. Romney and Republicans might have taken the bankruptcy approach which would have been a different method using the courts rather than the Feds. But, GM and Chrysler would likely still exist and perhaps not produce the VOLT. Note FORD turned down the bailout and is perhaps stronger today than GM or Chrysler.

The resurgence of the auto industry, it can be argued, had more to do with the earthquake's impact on Japanese car companies than Fed money. Both Honda and Toyota led the spike in auto sales in August. The Toyota hybrid Prius leads the electric car market. Ironically, the leading American car sold in August in America was FULL SIZE pick up trucks. Not good news for global warming concerns.

The Iraq draw down was another Bush initiative followed through by Obama. The Afghanistan half hearted surge was all Obama's and he is now mired in a strategy in pause while he runs for reelection. He recently halted training of Afghan security forces to stop the killing of US trainers. And, yet he has stated we will be there for decades. Still the Dems claim he ended two wars.

The economy: 8.3 % unemployment for nearly his full term. GDP at 1.7%. Forclosures still at a record high. 23 Million people unemployed or under employed. Mortgage loan applications dropped 2.5% last week. 40-70 Million people on food stamps.

The Debt: $16 Trillion and climbing $1.3 Trillion a year.

Stimulus: Dems argued last night that the stimulus bill has renewed American infrastructure and create 4.5 million new jobs in the past 29 months. First, only 3% of the stimulus money went to Infrastructure. That is a drop in the bucket and modernized virtually nothing. It basically built parks and paved roads. Second, Ronald Reagan created 1 million jobs a month in the final 7 months of his administration setting the stage for the credit given to Clinton's economic performance. Third, if there has been any credit for the economic performance it goes to the Fed and their printing of money. In less than 4 years the Fed has taken on $500 Billion dollars of new debt buying US bonds and printng money to insert into the economy to create consumer demand. Bernanke has begged the President and the Congress to take fiscal responsibility for this country. No leadership from this President--just finger pointing.

CLINTON--tonight Clinton will try his best to get this guy reelected. Not because he believes in him or thinks he's doing a great job. No he will do it for personal reasons: Hillary. If Obama loses then Hillary will likely lose to Romney in 2016. But, if he can get Obama another term then Hillary will have a clearer shot at defeating a non incumbent candidate in 2016. It's best to understand how a defiant Clinton one day can become a cooperative Clinton the next. Self interest.

Can't wait for tonight and the Dallas-Giants game--oops I mean Clinton and Biden!

[DickG]

"REPUBLICAN THINKING"; I agree it's worrisome at times, but there's nothing to compare it to.

[Bill McCormick]

CLINT AND MITT---I must admit Clint is my movie hero. And, my first impression of his speech made me think I was watching a nervous walk on who had forgotten what he wanted to say. Perhaps he had a few too much whisky enroute from Monterrey. But, once I settled in knowing full well that one of the great talents of the movie world would not be shy and confusing without a purpose I began to understand the message. It was indeed all about the empty chair. The President who voted present as a Senator. The President few can remember in college. The President with no business experience. The President with 121 rounds of golf during our economic and military turmoil. The President with only 2 cabinet meetings in 2012. The President who could not enter the negotiations to save the country from entering into the fiscal cliff. The President who could not garner one vote for his last two budget proposals. The President who fails to lead on Iran,Afghanistan,Syria, immigration, Russia and the exploding deficits. The President missing from action yet still expecting the country to reelect him.

And, Mitt. Mitt got a B+ from me. No he cannot entertain like Ronald Reagan. But, he can make me feel like there is finally a competent alternative to lead us to some common ground on issues that desperately need to be solved. I am so weary of the biased salesmanship of politicians who only see things one way--their way. Who only care about elections and their base. He will never be and has never been an "empty chair". He will get both sides of the aisle engaged. He will comprmise. He will lead. It matters little that he ignored the military issues. Americans right now are focused on the problems here. The problems Obama promised to fix.

[DickG]

STEM WINDING; Although I never thought of Mitt Romney as a 'stem winder'; his Ohio presentation had them 'rock'n ' in the SWING STATE.

[Alternative Medicines]

I hate republicans thinking, because they want womens to lose their rights, which results in unhealthy life.

[DickG]

RULES; We've just recently experienced SAMPLES of 'strong arm' LEGISLATING during the course of the present Administrations' antics. Although I never heard many Details; hopefully the perps will be ferreted out thru Tea Party members.
It's a shame; after such an exemplary demonstration of political leadership.