It's Romney's to Win (It Really Is ! )

  This was written Wednesday afternoon. It is doubly true after the first debate.    

    Those of us who obsess over a second Obama presidency need to stop offering unsolicited advice to our chosen candidate and realize that this is not his first rodeo. It might be useful to instead reflect on the broader shape of the election and the advantages that Romney has.

    First, I will stipulate that Obama Is leading by low single digits, a bit more in the battleground states than in the country in general. Time is short and he has slipped a bit in the past month, but the next phase involves an intense exposure of the candidates directly to the electorate.

    A year ago, the premise of many was that in an election involving an incumbent the voters first look at the incumbent's record. If it is OK, game over. If not, they look at the challenger to see if he/she is OK.  Beginning with the Republican primaries, the Obama strategy has been to debunk Romney rather than to defend Obama's record or to offer strategies for short or long term  economic recovery. That leaves a major opening for Team Romney.

    1. The Romney campaign does not need to exert much energy pointing out that Obama's economic stewardship has failed. Even the most passionate liberal understands that 23 million unemployed and $16 trillion of debt reflects an ongoing misery. Heck, even Joe Biden is ranting about "the middle class that has been buried the past four years". Ditto foreign policy where our troops are dying as we skulk out of Afghanistan and the State Department's incompetence and cover-up in Benghazi reflect a naive belief that weakness will bring peace to our friends - governments and individuals - in the Middle East. The 15%  of the electorate who still need to be convinced understand the state of the nation.

   2. Likewise, there is no question about Romney's competence and experience - his education, in business, as governor, in the Olympics. With the millions of dollars of personal attacks, virtually none have been about competence. That's not nothing.

  3. So the challenge for Romney - in the debates, in pesonal appearances, in advertising -  is to demonstrate that his experience and success in business and government are relevant to the country's problems. This has two parts:

        -  He is a data-driven numbers guy. He doesn't really need to teach the electorate about the relation of marginal corporate tax rates to deficits. He just needs to demonstrate that he understands and cares.  Less is more.

        -  He needs to demonstrate that he is a decent guy who is concerned about all of the people. Notwithstanding his 47% gaffe, his performance as governor and in his personal life demonstrate the reality. 

    Pundits will dwell on a phrase or the details of an answer in the October 3 debate, but it will take a few days to determine what the public really saw. The good news for the Romney camp is that at this point the election is about Romney. With three unfiltered shots at 50 million viewers, he has the controls.

                                                                    -----

   This week's video is an Illinois legislative candidate's reprise of a famous cartoon.  

bill bowen - 10/4/12 

Comments

[DickG]

Romney's 'BIG MEDIA MO'; The political 'wind' may be too strong for even the Media to endure. (1) Ann Romney-guest hostess GMA (2) The Admin. deceives the Media on Benghazi and CNN & WH Press Corps retalliate.(3) Brooks from the NY Times thinks The Romney-Ryan 'competitive choice'private sector, healthcare plan, might be the only chance of success. (4) 'Big Bird'& ELMO say "STOP IT". No one likes a LOOSER.
As they say in Baseball; tonight's a CRUCIAL.

[Bill McCormick]

AN ADMINISTRATION UNRAVELS: So, now the word "jobs" is still nowhere to be seen in Obama's speeches or the Democratic ads. Instead the subject is Big Bird and Elmo (used in the context of the OJ incident). It is unprecedented that an incumbent cannot even try to defend his record and that a VP is sequestered. Biden has not been on the major networks in months and the President has not faced the press for 2 weeks. And, to his embarrassment Sesame street has asked the Big Bird ads be withdrawn.

The Libya situation unravels as the State Department turns on the White House. Meanwhile Syria continues to boil. Iran races to Nukes. China "stimulates" economy--more printing of money to weaken currency--continuing the US led race to devalue worldwide.

Romney surges in the polls and the White House and liberal media panics into an all out assault on Romney's numbers. Meanwhile the Administration has had no numbers (except red ink for 4 years)and no budget to offer.

NY's Schumer attempts to torpedo the Senate compromise on the Fiscal cliff by demanding more taxes on the rich. Operating as Obama's proxy as the "tax the rich" theme seems to be backfiring on the President since the debates.

The more they panic and the more desperate they appear the more the voters turn away from them.

[DickG]

JOE TRIPEE COMMENT; "twenty minutes into the DEBATE, Republican internet 'voter registrations' began to double, and is continuing to do so."

[DickG]

JACK WELCH CONFIRMED 5% 'GDP' REQM'T; In order to achieve the Dept of Labor Statistics' 7.8% Unemployment. Confirmed on 'Larry Kudlow".

[DickG]

PER CENT UNEMPLOYMENT CHANGES VS GDP ; Statement was made today (Limbaugh Advisor)that the changes in the usual 'unemployment rate' reported over the last few months would require a GDP of 4-5 %.
In need of confirmation but it sounded correct. (Probably meant under a constant 'workforce' no..)

[Bill McCormick]

JOBS? 114,000 new jobs is a number 36,000 below what is needed to employ the new people coming on line. This unemployment number today of 7.8% was not likely a manufactured number by the political hacks it was likely the result of the fall season prompting more Americans who had given up looking for work to go out and try and find a job --any job for Christmas. Perhaps the president can influence the numbers--after all this is the same Labor Department that put out the notice to Defense contractors to ignore the law to give employees 60 days notice of layoffs. But, it is more likely that even that move was a precurser to an announcement by Mitch McConnell and Harry Reid that the have agreed to "kick the can down the road 6 months" on the Bush tax hikes and the sequestration --the so called fiscal cliff in order to calm the business world and give the new Congress time to come up with a different set of penalties. We'll see. In any case 114,000 jobs is woeful going into the holiday season and does not bode well for future jobs for anyone. The defense contractors will begin their layoffs, as will struggling businesses like HP.

[DickG]

ROMNEY ABLE TO HANDLE HEALTHCARE TOPIC DE'MYTH'TIFIED;Santorum's concern was 'aired' last night when about 10 items of Mass Healthcare's superiority were itemized by the Candidate. A few from memory:hiring penalties - NO, tax increases - NO,Insurance cost increases - NO, Death Panels - NO. Seem to remove the matter altogether and allowed Romney to freely discuss it.
(I'm sure Chicago has some Election 'loophole' which will allow someone from S.C to vote for Dr Bellar)