Immigration: Policy and Politics

    We will have comprehensive immigration reform within the next few months. The Republicans need it to survive. The Democrats cannot again stiff the demographic which gave Obama a plurality of 6 million votes in his 3 million vote victory.  

    The policy is simple. In a brief moment of bipartisan wisdom, eight Senators worked out the framework - Schumer, Menendez, Bennet, and Durbin for the Dems (mostly Northerners); and McCain, Rubio, Graham, and Flake for the Republicans (all Southern/Border folks).

The program:

    1. A path to citizenship with secure borders and visa management.

    2. An improved legal immigrant system which attracts the world's best and brightest.

    3. Strong employment verification.

    4. A guest worker program and protection of employee rights.

    The final bill will jiggle a bit, but this is about it. We will move a bit more toward the Canadian model which admits immigrants based on what skills and attributes they bring to us. Let the beacon attract people who can make us greater - and pay for our Social Security.

The politics:

    1. Republicans cannot withstand a 70% Democratic vote among the rapidly expanding 23 million Hispanics who can vote (about half do), but worse would be to add another 11 million who would vote Democratic in even greater percentages. Long term residency (without the vote) works, as do lots of hurdles and an 8 plus year delay in elegibility for citizenship - until after today's political leaders are out of Dodge.

    2. Obama's role in this is fun to watch. In his first two years when Democrats controlled Congress he did nothing. Maybe because his African American supporters do not want to give up their status as the preferred minority. Maybe because his union supporters do not want to increase competition for scarce jobs. Maybe because he was clever enough to preserve Hispanic anger with Republicans. Those with longer memories recall the junior senator from Illinois torpedoing the Bush / McCain efforts in 2007 - for the same reasons.

    Now that comprehensive reform will be one of the few high points of his second term he wants it to be his accomplishment - prominence in the State of the Union; speeches around the country; a highlight of his Organizing for America perpetual campaign. But the Group of Eight has been smart enough to say "no thanks" -  you can position your thoughts as a backup plan, but we've got this one.

    3. On the Republican side it is the first round of interviews for 2016. People like a name on important legislation: Taft-Hartley; Dodd-Frank; Hart-Scott-Rodino. Eight names is too many, and Menendez-Rubio would have had a nice ring to it - until Menendez, the only Democratic Hispanic Senator got in trouble for jaunts on a donor's jet to meet up with hookers in the Dominican Republic. On this issue -one of the most critical to Republican success - there is a temptation to make it the Rubio Plan. He is the rightful leader, has been working on the effort for years and his name ends in a vowel.  

    Meanwhile, somewhere down in the bowels of the Hillary campaign the staffers are figuring how to take down Rubio if he gets credit for leading this charge, and the fair and balanced New York Times has raised the level of discourse by explaining why his taking a drink of water during his Republican response to Obama's State of the Union speech is an obvious disqualifier.

    Whatever. We will have reform and it will be good.

                                                  -----

    This week's bonus is a presentation that Harmeet Dhillon, the Chair of the San Francisco Republican Party made to the Central Committee in San Diego as part of her campaign for the state Republican Party Vice Chair. The good news for the GOP everywhere is that even in California the opportunity and liberty messages resonate.   

bill bowen - 2/22/13    

 

Comments

[DickG]

16 COMMENTS; the most I've seen. Some of us are getting nervous. Some probably should be and are not. The Republican Party has again closed it's doors; as it did during the Convention. This time, regardless of performance, Christi has gotten the 'shaft'. His ACT OF DISHONOR has past. Let's forget it. Christi is one of maybe two outpoken speakers the party has. In the event you are not nervous by now; that should do it. CPAC and the White House need leadership, desperately.

[Bill McCormick]

IRAN thinks talks are going well. So far they ahve agreed to nothing. In the meantime the west has proposed to remove some sanctions. Iran concluded this round by saying that the west must remove sanctions and agree to allow Iran to enrich uranium to 20%. Also they have refused to ship their enriched uranium out of the country and to stop enriching uranium underground. The next round of talks is March followed by another ound in April. These discussions began in 2006. So as Iran moves closer and closer to weapons grade enriched uranium the west moves closer and closer to reducing the sanctions. These issues seem to disappear into the cloud without an election on the horizon.

ILLEGALS are being arrested in the Tucson sector of the border at a rate of between 200 and 400 a DAY. A race to get in before the immigration bill passes with its amnesty provisions. Border security? Oh yeah, $9/hour might be a magnet as well.

[Bill McCormick]

FED SAYS 2016--to get to unemployment target of 6.5%. For any of you small business owners who can survive it that means $4 Trillion of more money out there to try to get a peice of. That would mean that under Obama the money in circulation would have been increased through printing from $800B to $6.7 Trillion and according to Fed Chief we will not have any appreciable inflation. That makes it probable that the debt of the US by the time Obama leaves office will be around $20 Trillion on Treaury books and $8 Trillion on the Fed books. A total of $28 Trillion dollars. If by then long term interest rates return to a simple 4% the annual interest on the debt will be $1.12 Trillion. What a great financial strategy this administration has given us. No wonder the stock market cannot stop going up. A 2008 dollar will be worth about 12 cents by that time.

[DickG]

NEW FINANCIAL INTERPRETATION TEXTS FOR 2013 ? A MUST ! Hopefully Duncan (Educ. Secretary) will get to work on new Financial Arithmetic and Dictionary books for the Obamanomics generation. Do not doubt it. To be surfacing in a school district near you.
UNCLE BEN's BIZ SCHOOL (all new) Student Dictionary ? How about Tim Geithner and Rubin's Text on THE ARITHMETIC OF DISAPPEARING DERIVATIVES ? We'll have former 'CFTC' Chair (Rubin had Clinton Fire her), Brooksly Born, to review it.

[Bill McCormick]

HOUSING STATS: be careful what your hear. Yesterday new home sales come out up 15% over January of last year. And,any sales going up in this environemtn is good. However, as with political arguments which often focus on percentages so it goes in economics. The easiest example is that if your stock price falls 50% then it must go up 100% to be back to even. So any rate of change going down is less than the rate of change going up.

NEW HOME SALES are currently at the same level they were in 1990. In 2006 or so the new home single family sales peaked around 300% above today's levels. The fact that they went up 15% is ggod but not spectacular. Keep in mind that New home Prces fell at the same time 9%. And, inventory of new homes on the market fell from 2 Million to 1.6 million. I point this out because it shows that construction of new homes is meeting the headwinds of lower profits and margins. SO, while there are encouraging signs all is not rosy.

[Bill McCormick]

ALL's WELL WITH THE FED: It's all going ok says the FED chief. I listened to him today and I certaninly was convinced that his strategy of putting off cutting government spending for another decade will work out fine. All we do is keep on printing until unemployment gets below 6.5%. It's all the way down to 7.9% now. and, just before his talk JPM announced another 4000 cuts in employment this year and 14,000 next year. All in America. So, when will we make that 6.5% marker? 2014? That's another $1 Trillion in circulation. 2015? $2 Trillion more. Let's see--in other news today the Italian people voted to have no leadership as they try to deal with their $3 Trillion debt. Italy has the third largest debt in the WORLD. And, no leadership. Why don't we just have the FED print $3 trillion and eliminate their debt? That way the stock market wouldn't have to worry about an Italian default. The Japanese Yen being printed as fast as presses can run STRENGTHENED today against the Euro on the Italian news. Yep everything is great--just print away!

[Bill McCormick]

CALIFORNIA TURNS TO OIL: without much fanfare California oil shale estimated to be the largest reserve in the country with 8 Billion barrels is perhaps on the edge of being exploited. And on Federal lands!! Horrors. It is said that 10 test wells have been drilled on the Federal lands to test the use of fracking technology to unleash the oil. And, now that the news is out the California environmentalists are on the offensive. Perhaps Bill will give us the latest on this intiguing news as the story unwinds. And, perhaps California will return to state of reason.

[DickG]

NORMAN MATTOON THOMAS (Nov 20 1884-Dec 19 1968), 6 time Socialist Presidential Candidate in the USA. Said this in a 1944 speech......

"The American People will never adopt Socialism; but under the name 'LIBERALISM', they will adopt every fragment of Socialist Programs. Until one day, America will be a Socialist Nation and will not know how it happened. I no longer need to run as a Candidate for the Socialist Party. The Democratic Party has adopted our Platform."
Today, some 'sound' Democratic Party programs could be advanced much easier and economically safer without this Socialist Avalanche of destructive schemes.

[DickG]

DOCUMENTS: Search for Fla. Port St Lucie Voter Tally Sheet as described was gone from the Election Commission Website. On the evening of Nov 6, however it was posted. I personally saw "182% of the 'Registered Vote" had turned out." The sheet was read on FOX that evening . A Utube may yet be available.
Search to whatever depth of satisfaction may be required on the following (it is everywhere):(1) 59 Precincts in Phila and 9 in Ohio all reported '0' opposition vote in an area with at least 20% opposition registered voters. (2)14 States passing INDICTMENTS charging Acorn (to which this President served as Councel)with voter Fraud. (3) Military Absentee Votes in the tens of thousands,lost.

The Atty General of the US claims "no serious threat to the Vote Integrity exists and therefor does not justify 'Voter ID'."

[harrycat]

DickG -
These are just anecdotes. Where is this documented? Or these urban myths?