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August 01, 2008

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Thanks Neil. A good perspective, writing from Utah. I had not thought of the Crist connection. Lets hope that he picks Romney and that Huckabee and a few key Christian right leaders get on board. In a different context, this could be a good development for American understanding of the Mormon church.

Bill

I agree with most of your analysis,but would add the following. I do think that McCain can win Fla without my distant cousin (very distant) being on the ticket as VP, as long as Charlie actively supports the ticket. I was there when Romney's primary lead disappeared overnight after Sen Martinez (Cuban American voting Bloc) and Governor Crist (popular republican Governor) endorsed McCain 2 days before the election.

I also agree that Romney could deliver Michigan and Nevada if he has the VP slot on the ticket. Whether he gets it or not, he has done a LOT of fund raising for McCain. I also think that the Mormon vote in other states would be heavily in his favor...and maybe enough to swing a state or two.

What worries me is whether the adverse reaction in the southern bible belt states would cause the ticket more harm than the above benefits would help. I saw a LOT of very ANTI-MORMON attitude in the southern states during the primary campaigning...hence the focus on Huckabee in those areas. If Huckabee really supports the ticket, that would help, but he hasn't been very active/enthusiastic in his support for McCain so far.

What it boils down to is that I think Romney would bring a lot of conservative and Mormon votes to the ticket on the national scale if the Republicans can keep the bible-belt on board. How it will shake out in the other swing states is, however, a question that I couldn't begin to answer.

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