Parsing the Election

    Those who enjoy politics - and those who get paid to feed the habit - are poring over Tuesday's results to draw conclusions large and small. For those who cannot make it to the Oracle at Delphi, I offer some conclusions:

1. Most importantly, Obama cannot deliver. This is not to say that the elections were a referendum on his administration (as MSNBC pointed out ad nauseum) - voters were focused on their states or localities; there was no foreign policy component. But, what is important to the politicians who live in and around northern Virginia is the undeniable fact that Obama made a personal effort to energize his support base in favor of Democratic candidates in Virginia and New Jersey, and he failed badly. (His incremental minority and youth vote stayed away in droves.) For Democratic politicians, this is not like the foolish effort to sway the vote on the 2016 Olympics - this is "what does it mean for me if I break with my constituents to support Obama's agenda."  A weak image is self-fulfilling - and Obama does little to nurture an image of strength.  

2. Republicans cannot win - even in solid Republican districts - without a strong candidate and a united party. In a perverse way, that is the lesson of New York's 23 district where the national and local Republican parties nominated a candidate with a liberal voting record on economic, social, and union issues and the unlikely alternative of the Conservative Party candidate was too little too late. Nationally, the party may have dodged a bullet by demonstrating Lesson Number 2.

3. Given a chance, many of the "Independents" will vote Republican. The anomaly is that voters self identify as conservative twice as often as liberal, yet they favor Democrats over Republicans by 4-5%. Many of them have abandoned the Republican Party as a result of disenchantment with President Bush and the past Republican Congress, but they haven't really changed. Add a better Republican economic story and good candidates and they will come home. And add Obama's foreign policy weakness - that's next week's blog!

4. For those seeking evidence of societal progress, the likely election of Mary Norwood would represent a post-racial milestone as the first white mayor of Atlanta since 1973. The success of a domestic partner law in Washington state and the defeat of a gay marriage initiative in Maine seem to define the public's boundary - all of the rights without the sizzle. (You didn't miss the White House's statement on either subject - there was none.) Unfortunately, Michael Bloomberg showed that $100,000,000 can buy 51% of the vote in New York City.   

5. There are also a few lessons on how to follow the political sport:

-  CNN actually was pretty good, with a panel of eight balanced experts; but Larry King and Wolf Blitzer have seen better days. Fox benefits with Karl Rove - the only commentator who really seems to understand the nuances of state politics; O'Reilly is trying hard to be "fair and balanced". Led by Keith Olberman's rants, MSNBC is in acute denial.

- Rasmussen's polling gains credibility as they called Virginia by 13% and New Jersey by 2%. They were the most accurate of the majors in 2008, and their "likely voter" (instead of "general population") methodology has been showing Obama below 50% in job approval.

   Meanwhile, here in San Francisco - Nancy Pelosi thinks it was a Democratic victory!!!

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   This week's You Tube demonstrates the growing sources of conservative political humor on the web. 

bill bowen - 11/6/09

  

Favorites: 
    1. Mitt Romney's "Free and Strong America" PAC web site. 
    2. Tom Campbell's California governor campaign web site.

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Comments

[William McCormick]

So hurdle #1 has been cleared and finally we see the Pelosi Healthcare dream come true. Will the Senate pass it? It's a tough call. Probably not as Pelosi would like but you know that Obama will be in his full court press mode to get something passed. Then the strategy will be to mix things up in the joint version hoping that they can twist enough arms and bribe enough players with "pork" to get it through. Then watch the small businesses as they shed people trying to pay for it all. Chapter 2 is on the way.

[LisainSt.Louis]

Hi All, Just got a note from my parents regarding AARP and the Healthcare bill. They have written to AARP and canceled their membership since AARP is supporting the bill. Mom asked that I write to anyone else who might be an AARP member and suggest that they do the same and be sure to tell AARP why they are canceling. As Dad said, Triple A gives many of the same benefits as AARP plus they unlock your locked car and tow it when needed.

Lisa

PS Sorry this is not a response to the latest blog. Will do that later but parents wishes come first.

[William McCormick]

To me this election was mostly carried out by the realists among us. Realists know the economy drives everything for the nation just as a good job provides the basis for a family to prosper and enjoy life. Realists have seen enough to know that this Administration and this Congress are headed the wrong direction. Rather than focusing on economic problems and taking small steps to adjust the healthcare system in America they are hellbent on changing America by redistributing wealth, inhibiting capitalism and spending money we don't have. Increased spending leads to increased taxes eventually and that leads to economic pain. The realists came out. The progressives stayed home. And, it can only get worse for the in crowd. If this was a victory for the liberals then I hope we see many more in the immediate future. Dream on--Nancy!