The New Republican Congress

Despite Tom DeLay's admonition against overconfidence, I will go with the polls showing a "generic" Republican preference of about 5%, and offer some conjecture about a Republican 2011 House of Representatives. (See the electoral map.)

We've been here before and screwed it up. Lesser lights were the worst offenders: Congressman Duke Cunningham - guilty of taking millions in bribes; lobbyist Jack Abramoff - guilty of defrauding Indian tribe clients and official corruption along with a dozen other White House and congressional aides; Rep Mark Foley - guilty of soliciting a young male page.  While not convicted of crimes, a considerable stink hung over leaders Newt Gingrich (reprimanded in 1997 and fined by the House for ethics violations), Tom Delay (charged in 2005 with violating state campaign finance laws and money laundering), and Dennis Hastert (shady real estate deals.)  Those looking for reasons why Democrats outnumber Republicans 4 to 3 while voters self-identify as conservative over liberal 2:1 should start with the Republican House's decade of corruption. 

This time it is high unemployment and generation-punishing budget deficits that are giving Republicans a chance, and they will be the focus of the 112th Congress.

-- John Boehner, was a junior reformer in the 90's, helped write the Contract with America in 1994, and became minority leader in 2006, following Tom DeLay's resignation. Under his leadership (and with Nancy Pelosi seeking no Republican input), he has been able to hold his caucus to a virtual 100% voting record. He promises to be a solid majority leader.

-- Paul Ryan of Road Map fame will presumably be the Chair of the House Budget Committee.  Wisdom and courage will be required.

--  Ryan is also on the Bowles/Simpson Deficit Reduction Commission which will report in December on recommendations to close the $1.4 trillion dollar budget deficit, giving the administration and the Congress a beginning point for negotiations. Democrat Bowles has indicated that he favors 3/4 spending cuts and 1/4 tax increases, rolling back the recent expansion of government spending from 21 to 24 % of GDP.  Options such as a Value Added Tax will probably not get the 14 of 18 votes necessary for recommendation, but they will receive attention none-the-less.

--  Fortunately, the new Congress should be encouraged by several recent examples of new leaders receiving early credit for slashing spending - Governor Chris Cristie in New Jersey; Governor Bob McDonnell in Virginia; Prime Minister David Cameron in the United Kingdom. Look for the House's "power of the purse" to run into the Community Organizer in Chief's desire to spread the wealth. Obama is smart enough to know - even after the resignations of Budget Director Peter Orszag and chief economic adviser Christine Romer - that wealth has to be created before it can be redistributed.

-- In the short run, voters favor job creation over deficit reduction, suggesting a series of Republican proposals to help the creators of jobs - extension of the Bush tax cuts; a shift of focus on health care from extension of coverage to cost reduction (repeal is not possible with Obama's veto); movement toward real energy independence; a challenge to regulatory expansion; and most importantly, a plan to return to budget sanity.   

--  One concern of the White House will be Darrell Issa, the Republicans' biggest investigator of the administration's alleged abuses, as chair of House Oversight and Government Reform Committee - with subpoena power. Move over Henry Waxman.

-- Finally, it will be interesting to see what happens to the Blue Dog Democrats - or what is left of them - once they are out from under the thumb of Ms Pelosi. With a liberal Democratic president and a Tea Party-energized Republican House, they will remain in "no man's land".

This all assumes that the Republicans' campaign message remains on track, not getting distracted by popular, but less important, issues such as immigration, Muslim mosques, and the corruption of Charlie Rangel. I believe that the Republican leaders get it.

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This week's video is a largely unreported welcome of returning soldiers by President George W. Bush at Dallas/Fort Worth. Whatever his other shortcomings, this is his element.

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And, a plug for my nuclear terrorism novel, The Target, available in paperback and Kindle at Amazon and by request at most book stores.

Comments

[FlyOverState]

Not worth a defense. Another guy (or woman) who doesn't get it. Or get the culture I live in and most of middle America lives in. Are you from one of the coasts? And have a big degree that makes you smarter than me? That's where those cultural wars start. Just let me live my life and bug out.

[Harrycat]

FlyOverState
After 1 1/2 years of Obama do you really want to talk about his wife's vacation and choice of clothes? This is part of the "culture wars" that have contributed to our inability to talk to each other. Let's talk about might get done about spending and taxes.

[Harrycat]

Bill M -
Are you really trying to say that the financial collapse we are in is due to a President had been out of office for seven years and that Bush with control of both House and Senate was powerless to stop it?

[Bill McCormick]

Spoken like a true Tea Party man, flyover. I cannot blame you for feeling that way along with millions of others. I'm all for conservative financial discipline but every time the Republicans get too conservative we losr the next election and the flip flop continues. We need bipartisan solutions and that requires some give and take on the part of both parties. But, I agree defense and fiscal balance are first priorities. I think both Bills agree on that.

[FlyOverState]

Thanks Bill McCormick (gotta keep my Bill's straight). I don't write well but I gotta say that I was pretty hot when we got back to the blame game. In a nutshell, Bush didn't get us into wars ... 9/11 got us into the war. Unlike you guys I think we have kept the terrorists on other shores rather than back on ours. Don't expect it to last and am still afraid. Don't really care where all of this financial mess started ... Clinton, Bush, or even before that when we all thought we should have anything we wanted and borrowed to the hilt to get it with credit cards, etc. Spent money we didn't have. What I do know is it isn't getting better. Finances are getting worse and terrorism is even more frightening since it keeps popping up all over. Those guys know we are vulnerable ... our nation is running scared. Scared of Iran, scared of offending the liberals, scared of offending the conservatives, the seniors, the young kids, the Moms, etc. I'm a tea party guy because I believe big government isn't going to solve anything and they need to quit messing around with my life.

I'm mad because I did it right ... didn't use credit cards, didn't buy a house I couldn't afford, worked 6-7 days a week. If one of my guys (when I could afford guys) messed up a job, I didn't go to my customer and say woops ... not my fault. The supplier, the other guy screwed it up, the guy who put in the last plumbing screwed it up. Nope I took the job and it was my job to make it right. Try that in government. And it's my fault that those guys in government are there. So we're taking them on and going to throw them out and hope that we get real men and women who understand how things should work. Yep, I hope there are some moderates in there but that isn't my biggest concern. My concern is how is the person on financial issues and how do they see us defend ourselves. And if they are for more entitlement programs or making nice with the Middle East then I'm going to march for the guy who wants to cut entitlement and be firm in the Middle East. Let them keep their d--- oil and we'll drill in Alaska or use coal or do some other thing. I'd rather have some pollution than give the terrorists one more dime so they can blow us up. By the way ... don't go painting me as a racist. That is getting pretty old. I don't agree with you then I'm a racist. Nope, you want to live here and be my neighbor and support the USA then great. If you don't, move on.

[Bill McCormick]

Sorry Harry Cat but you can trace the beginings of this mess to the begining of a housing for all move by the Democrats similar to the healthcare for all move of this year.. It clearly began with Clinton, was accellerated by Fannie and Freddie under the direct control of Dodd and Barney. The Dems filibustered the attempts by Bush administration to regulate them both. Even now after all that Fannie and Freddie have done to contribute to the financial mess they are exempt from the financial reform act just passed by Congress.
Two wars were started for sure and perhaps one was misguided but it was Bush who made the surge decision that allowed us to end it. As for Afghanistan even the Obama man was in support of that one and he is still fighting it. We did not start that war Al Queda did just as surely as the Japanese did at Pearl Harbor. The roots of Al Queda are broad and deeply woven in the countries with Muslim populations and the dangers are ever increasing with the instability in Pakistan and the nuclear ambitions of Iran. One nuclear weapon detonated in NYC or Washington DC and this recession will seem like nothing. Financial chaos is what Al Queda is after. Bush clearly stated after 9-11 that this is a long time war fought mostly below the radar screen and it will continue to be that way no matter who is President. As liberal as Obama is even he has certainly changed his tone in his two years in office. Two years of daily intelligence reports on the threats to America will certainly bring some reality in focus even for a liberal when the buck stops at your desk.

I couldn't agree with you more that the Republicans and the Democrats are equally to blame for our mess. But it is more so the fault of the knee jerk response of both parties to move away from the center and to either the far left as we are currently experiencing or the far right which we are about to experience with the Tea Party taking out anyone in the middle regardless of their party. Congress is about to become even more divided as the far left control the Dems and the far right will once again take the Repubs. Nothing could be worse. Until governemnt comes from the center with some fiscal responsiblity the economic threat to America will persist. And, governence will be problematic. How can any organization plan when the ground rules are changed every 2-4 years by a frustrated voter set? Tax cuts are not the problem costs are. Ever increasing budgets cannot be met by tax increases. Only economic growth and cost cuts can solve the problem along with a willing Congress that will change the ground rules for the entitlement programs to reflect modern America and acturial tables.

That's my view and I'm sticking to it.

[Harrycat]

Thank you for reminding us of the failings of those Reps. It is healthy to honestly recognize the past. We must also recognize that the Bush administration was a an abject failure - 2 wars started and not finished, unfunded drug benefit for seniors, attempt to invest SS monies in stock market, tax benefits for the most wealthy, and, of course, the worst recession/depression since the great crash.

What I don't see is any thought about governance with the exception of Ryan. Is it only about getting elected? This country needs help from all. What are we going to do? Please don't just say tax cuts. What programs should be cut? Military, SS, drug benefit, or what? What additional sources of revenue can we find? Bush and a Republican congress got us into this mess. It is time to get serious and find a grand bargain.

[William McCormick]

flyover---your comment is exactly the reason that America is rejecting this Admnistration: they talk like they know what they are doing and that they relate to the people but they actually have no clue what it is like to run a company or to need to find a job. For the most part they come from Ivy League schools and go directly into jobs that exploit the blue collar workers or academia. They see their role as the caretakers through social transformation taking from the rich and giving to the poor. This "Robin Hood justification" of their cause allows them to live the good life while taking the moral high ground and denegrating the entraprenuers of America. AND, so it is in communist and socialist societites: the 10% elite exploit the rest of the population. Russia tried it, China is doing it, Venezuela is on its way. No different than the monarchs and dictators of the world.

Until they got so deep in trouble Obama paid no attention to the small businesses in America. Now, he's our best friend trying to get $30B in credit to us through community banks. If only those bad Republicans would approve it. Why? The banks won't loan it anymore than the big banks did with the TARP money. And even if they do $30B is $2500 per small business in America. What will $2500 do?

If the polls are anywhere near correct there will be a major change in Congressional control in November. Hopefully, it will lead to balance and an atempt to bipartisan bills but I have my doubts. My guess is Republicans will try to roll back the programs and it will be the Dems turn to block their efforts under the direction of the President. A continuation of the flip flop mismanagement of America.

Hopefully, things will get better for you in Ohio. Based on things in Virginia and watching New Jersey the best thing that can happen to a state is to elect a Republican governor who will attack the costs of state government.

[FlyOverState]

Haven't written in awhile. The economy in Ohio stinks but our area is getting into politics big time. We're trying to make a red state from a swing state. Getting involved seems to take our minds off our own finances and gives us some hope that the government will change. Still not sure I trust any of them. Small business needs help big time. Can't believe Obama and the rest of those yo-yos still have their heads in some nutty cloud. Take big expensive vacations where this year we couldn't even go camping with the kids. And my wife says they wear designer clothes and we have left K-Mart and are going to GoodWill. Go figure!

[Bill McCormick]

Go, Fred!!!!