Right in San Francisco

Parsing The Pledge

    A number of readers have asked my opinion about the House Republicans' "Pledge to America". Briefly, expectedly disappointing - it reflects the cautious Democrat-lite ethos of the Republican establishment rather than the passion of the Tea Party fiscal conservatives.

    First, what it does do in its 21 rambling pages:

        -   Gives a conceptual nod to the Tea Party movement - fiscal responsibility, national security, and good government without emphasis on social issues.

         -  Confronts the "Party of No" claim by including a thousand Republican positions on everything from taxes, to health care, to missile defense. (Drafted by a committee with 1000 inputs.)

        -  Provides the structure of a "Repeal and Replace" strategy for healthcare, changing the focus from benefit expansion to cost reduction.  (With a majority of the public favoring repeal, the prime issue of the next Congress will be Republican efforts to reshape the rube-Goldberg legislation in the face of Obama's inevitable veto.)

        -  Provides numerous ideas about how to better run the House (e.g. 3 days to read bills before voting on them) - from the perspective of the minority party which has been abused by Speaker Pelosi since 2006.

    More importantly, what it does not do:

        -  Provide a strategic vision of where we are going financially. It is good to rail against the Democrats exploding deficits and failure to even have a 2011 budget, but some Republican targets are necessary.

        -   Address in a meaningful way the largest budget problems (Medicare; Medicaid; Social Security; military spending), or the causes of the 2008 financial melt down (Fannie Mae/Freddie Mac; rating agencies; derivatives; hedge funds; "too big to fail").

        -  Provide a realistic tax strategy - critical since everything is currently up for grabs.  

        -  Signal a real commitment to legislative reform by banning earmarks.

    If trends continue and the Republicans gain control of the House and gain 6 to 8 Senate seats, there will be a real test of the GOP. It probably would have been too much to hope for to treat the American public as adults during an election campaign in which the president is leading a chorus such as the blatantly untrue fear mongering on any mention of Social Security. Such is democracy - the voters know what is needed, but do not want to be confronted with the specifics, and many partisans are predisposed to attack anything.

    But we do have Paul Ryan's Roadmap and John Boehner's suggestion that we roll back spending to 2008 levels to give us hope for change. The real battle will be in the House between traditional Republicans who see the public's mood as just a political opportunity, and the wave of true believers who will demand a return to fiscal sanity. And maybe that earmark omission was just an oversight.

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   This week's video is a trailer for "Waiting for Superman", a documentary about the failing state of (largely inner city) American schools, the struggles of reformers in Los Angeles, Harlem and Washington D.C., and the trauma of life-changing lotteries for selection to attend public charter schools.

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    And a thank you for the many favorable reviewers of my nuclear terrorism novel, The Target - available at Amazon.com (paperback or Kindle), and by order at most book stores.

bill bowen - 10/1/10

Red State Gathering

    The Wall Street Journal's recent scoring of the 2010 political primary season had its winners (the conservative Club for Growth; Senator Jim DeMint; and Erick Erickson's RedState.com) and losers (politicians who had changed parties; TARP supporters; the Republican Senatorial Campaign Committee; and liberal Democrats.)  By good fortune, I spent the past weekend at a gathering of the Red State community in Austin, and have some observations about this driving force of conservative activists.

    1. This is the year of the conservative woman. About half of the attendees were women; Nikki Haley of South Carolina was perhaps the speaker with the greatest political upside; a centerpiece video, "Fire From the Heartland", featured female leaders from Margaret Thatcher to Michelle Bachman and several leaders of the Tea Party movement.

        -  My premise: Sarah Palin has legitimized pro-life conservative women. Diversity has come to feminism.

        -  With over 50% of voters being women this is a critical demographic, with younger single women who tend liberal outweighing older married women who tend conservative. But, there are plenty of conservatives.  

    2. Red State leader (and now CNN contributor) Erick Erickson's  success in identifying and being an early supporter of viable conservative anti-establishment candidates is astounding - Marco Rubio (Florida); Nikki Haley (South Carolina); Rand Paul (Kentucky); Ken Buck (Colorado); Mike Lee (Utah); Joe Miller (Alaska). Also in the cohort, if perhaps less electable, are Sharon Angle (Nevada), and Christine O'Donnell (Delaware.) Thus the Wall Street Journal recognition.

    3. The ideology was simple across all Red State speakers - rolling back the scope of the federal government to its constitutional place (as required by the 10th Amendment) and fiscal responsibility. These energized activists did not spend much time on immigration, abortion, terrorism, or anything else that would distract from the central message of this election cycle.  There was equal criticism of Bush administration transgressions - the expansion of Medicare, the federal role in education, and earmarks.       

    4. To liberals, Red State is a real threat - median age perhaps 40; very proficient technically with blogs, videos, Twitter, Facebook, and precinct mapping.  Whatever Howard Dean and Barack Obama's subsequent Organizing for America might have brought technically, these folks have it - along with "citizen expert commentators" on subjects as diverse as the Gulf oil industry, union organizing legislation, and myriad other subjects.

   If you haven't yet, you should attend a Tea Party event to witness the gap between the mainstream media's depiction of the participants in this movement and the reality. 

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    With three of Obama's top four economic team resigning, here's a video of the fourth, Treasury Secretary Tim Geithner, expressing an openness to a Chinese suggestion to replace the dollar as the world's reserve currency.  

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   And another plug for my nuclear terrorism novel, The Target, available at Amazon.com (paperback and Kindle), and by order from most bookstores.

 

The Obama Economic Plan

   The most significant speech coming out of Washington this month was not Glenn Beck's rally, one of President Obama's political rants, or John Boenher's suggestion that we cut spending back to 2008 levels and freeze taxes. It was outgoing Chairman of the President's Council of Economic Advisors Christina Romer's "valedictory" at the National Press Club. Her main points:

     1. She had no idea how bad the economic collapse would be (thus Obama's famous 8% unemployment limit);

    2. She still doesn't understand exactly why it was so bad;

    3. The response to the collapse was inadequate;

    4. She doesn't have much of an idea about how to fix things.

   When Budget Director Peter Orszag resigned in July and later took issue with with Obama's tax policies, it suggested disagreement about details of the administration's plan. Romer makes it clear that - like Congress having no 2011 budget -THERE IS NO PLAN.

   To the layman, it seems as if a big piece of our financial problem is failure to distinguish between shorter term cyclical problems and longer term structural problems. All of the "sound and fury" coming out of the Democrats for the past two years (aside from health care) has dealt with the cyclical problem - often making the structural problem worse. If Washington listened a bit to The Public, they would realize that The Public understands and wants long term solutions.

    So, the cyclical problem: overbuilding in housing; excessive personal debt; irresponsible financial industry mismanagement; lax regulation. A few trillion dollars later we have deferred some of inevitable pain in housing, saved some banks and car companies, extended the dole for the unemployed, and funded every public works project that could be earmarked. Twenty or thirty years ago we could have afforded that and moved on - but there are bigger structural problems afoot in 2010 and THERE IS NO PLAN.

And a few thoughts on the long term problem:

-- We were living on debt for a couple of decades, consuming more than we produced as a society - we will not return to those levels of perceived wealth. Until we recognize that everybody isn't entitled to a McMansion, a place at the lake, and world travel, we cannot start to rebuild our foundation.

   --  The productivity of the information technology revolution has hit in full force - much as the automation of agriculture and manufacturing did in the past. (We are still the world's largest manufacturer and third largest agricultural producer despite low manpower requirements.) The question for government is what to do about the workers that we do not need. Some logical answers - keep people in school longer; retire earlier; limit immigration of unskilled workers; shorten the work week; move back toward single wage earner families; increase services.

    --  A balance of payments imbalance of 5 % of GDP is crazy. Fixing this - by establishing "ranges of appropriate balance" with our major trading partners - would help to fix the employment problem. The world knows that the balance of the past decade (not only with China) is not sustainable; our politicians favor short term gratification.

 Paul Krugman's bizarre attack on Paul Ryan's "Roadmap for America's Future" is reflective of not only an ideological disagreement with its provisions, but also of a desire to avoid any clarity with The Public about where we are going. Many bought the "Hope and Change" schtick once; this time a more adult America needs a leader willing to discuss a plan.

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   This week's video is an intriguing presentation on the status of social media. At least you read a blog.

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 And a reminder about my new nuclear terrorism thriller, The Target, available in paperback or Kindle formats at Amazon.com and by order from most book stores. Thanks to the readers and friends who are helping organize an October 16 to 24 bookstore/library/media tour in Illinois and Wisconsin - the home of many of The Target's characters.   

Leadership - California Style

Last week, in a conversation about the absence of Tea Party activism in California, a number of my liberal friends got to talking about California's leadership of the country. I recalled an old lesson about leadership from my Air Force Academy days - every now and then the leader needs to look back to see if anybody is following. A few observations about the current state of California politics:

  1. The governor and senate races are toss-ups - an accomplishment for Republicans in a state that is 45% Democrat, 31% Republican, and 20 % Independent/other - but Tea Party activists are nowhere to be seen. Steve Poizner (the more conservative Republican) got crushed by Meg Whitman's money in the primary; Chuck Devore (who had national support from some Tea Party leaders) came in a distant third to Carly Fiorina in the senate primary.

  2. Of the 53 congressional seats, the split will likely remain 34 Democrat and 19 Republican - the result of extreme gerrymandering to create safe districts for all incumbents. The national tsunami stops at the Nevada border.

 3. While the Republicans stand to pick up at least eight governorships nationally, California's accidental Republican governor, Arnold Schwartznegger, may well pass the mantle to a Democrat.

 4. While the Republicans stand to pick up control of at least ten state legislative bodies, California's house and senate will remain firmly in Democratic hands.

  5. A few of the down ticket races are also instructive:

   -  Democrat San Francisco Mayor Gavin Newsom of gay marriage and personal infidelity fame is leading in his race against Abel Moldonato for lieutenant governor, despite his association with a "sanctuary city", hundreds of "medicinal marijuana" outlets, and local purchasing rules which violate state laws against preferences for minorities. Rock on.

    -  Early Obama supporter Democrat San Francisco DA Kamila Harris is competitive for the state AG role (down single digits to Los Angeles DA Steve Cooley), despite total opposition to the death penalty, the lowest conviction rate of any DA in the state, and a series of amateurish scandals in the medical examiner's office.

    -  And a bit further down the card, Republican Damon Dunn - African American, born dirt poor, Stanford grad, NFL player, dynamic speaker - is still likely to lose the Secretary of State race to Debra Bowen (no relation.)

   Interlaced through these campaigns are a relative indifference to public employee pension problems (Democratic governor candidate Jerry Brown's campaign has been led by the unions); a continued desire to lead the country in environmental restrictions; quiet refusal to accept teacher accountability in a feeble Race to the Top application (despite the current bottom-of-the barrel education results); and near-uniform condemnation of Arizona's efforts to curb illegal immigration. With 55% approval ratings, President Obama can continue to enjoy visits to his California ATM. 

 It would be interesting if national polling data were presented with and without "national leader" California's 38 million "steady as she goes" voters.  Fortunately for the nation, nobody is following. I can still hear my old drill sergeant's voice ... "To the rear, ... haarch!"

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  This week's You Tube is the first presidential endorsement ad of 2012 - running in New Orleans for Hillary. Thank Chicago dentist William DeJean.

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And a reminder about my new nuclear terrorism thriller, The Target, available in paperback or Kindle formats at Amazon.com and by order from most book stores.  

Afghanistan No; Mexico Si

It is nice to have another speech from President Obama about his victory in Iraq and the "get in / get out" strategy in Afghanistan. It would be nice to hear something from him about the escalating war on our southern border.

As a preamble, I would note that Mexico abuts four states while Afghanistan is 7000 miles away; we have a stalwart ally in Mexico's Felipe Calderon (who recently fired 10% of the federal police force for corruption) as compared to Hamid Karzai (who fired the chief investigator of Afghan corruption); and we now spend over $70 billion per year on the Afghan War as compared to $400 million supporting Mexico's anti-drug efforts.  

It is hard to know what to think about the cartel-driven violence in Mexico. Since Calderon began his crackdown on drug smuggling in 2006, some 28,000 people have been killed - mostly members of the Gulf, Familia, Zeta, and other cartels, but also many targeted government officials and a significant number of civilians. While the greatest problem is drugs (a $13 billion dollar a year business), attempted kidnappings have caused the removal of US consulate dependents in the business center of Monterrey; and last week 72 Central and South American migrants were killed 100 miles from the Texas border when they did not pay extortion demands. Kingpins keep getting killed or captured, but new ones pop up. In several border areas, the cartels represent an alternate government.

While most of the violence remains in Mexico, we are a big part of the problem: most of the cocaine, meth, and marijuana market is in the U.S.; most of the weapons come from here; and the migrants are easy targets. Our border cities- San Diego; Albuquerque; Tucson; Phoenix; El Paso; Houston - do not have particularly high murder rates, but a third of the prisoners in Arizona are illegal immigrants. The cartels largely fight their war south of the border, but they definitely have tentacles in the north.  

On the one hand, the violence in Mexico is not our problem. We contribute some $400 million per year to the multinational Merida Initiative to provide equipment and training for the Mexican law enforcement agencies. We agreed in March 2009 to increase our efforts to reduce the flow of money and weapons from the U.S. If our tourists choose to go to the Caribbean or Hawaii, that seems like a good choice.

But, eventually we need to deal with the millions of illegal Mexican immigrants in the country, the things which we do to attract them here, and the things which make them want to leave Mexico. The Calderon administration has been understandably focused on their civil war while our political leaders have been focused on the politics of border management. It would be nice if President Obama moved beyond his polemics against Arizona's efforts to protect themselves, and put as much effort into helping the Mexicans as the Pashtuns. You can bet that John McCain would.

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This week's You Tube is an ad by Arizona Governor Jan Brewer focused on criminality associated with the drug trade - before Hillary's State Department included Obama's attack of the Arizona law in a report to the UN as an example of his defense of human rights. He's on our side, right? Just sayin'. 

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And, another plug for my new nuclear terrorism thriller, The Target, which can be purchased in paperback or Kindle versions at Amazon.com or by order from most book stores.

bill bowen - 9/3/10