Libya In Perspective

    Successful foreign policy requires a bit of idealism (particularly in a democracy) and a lot of Realpolitik.  The strategy must be well understood by the leaders, but a bit of ambiguity is needed to prevent the adversaries from attacking the weak points.

    First, the idealism:

        George Bush and Condi Rice pushed the idea that the spread of democracy in the Muslim world would serve as an antidote to fundamentalism. Barack Obama adopted the theme in his Cairo speech of 2009. For the United States, this theme goes back at least to Woodrow Wilson's "war to make the world safe for democracy."  In Iraq and Afghanistan we did not just put a friendly face in power - as the British did throughout the region in the '50s - we held messy elections. In the long run that may be best.

        We'd also like to stop people from killing their own people. In Egypt it was a few hundred; in Libya it is in the thousands.  But, in recent decades the West has shown little interest in the neighborhood when the numbers were in the hundreds of thousands or millions in Darfur/Sudan, Rwanda, and the Congo. For some reason CNN did not care.

    Second, the Realpolitik:

        Throughout the region there are three tiers of importance, and our actions should be measured in their impact on the top tier.  The game is about Israel, Turkey, Saudi Arabia, Pakistan, and Iran.  If the first four are OK, we are OK; it would be a great world if we could make Iran OK.  Tier Two Egypt and Iraq matter, but not so much.

        The third tier, which includes most of the places currently in turmoil - Libya, Tunisia, Bahrain, Yemen, Morocco - doesn't really matter except for their impact on the top tier. For these there are simple rules - no weapons of mass destruction, no al Queda, no attacking your neighbors - particularly if they are in the top tier. Fortunately Gaddafy gave up his nuclear program when Bush invaded Iraq in 2003. Sadly, Afghanistan belongs in this bottom group.

        As we consult with our allies, position our forces, and pass UN resolutions we need to keep our priorities in mind. We still have overwhelmingly the world's greatest military force, an economy almost three times the size of the second place Chinese and the dollar as the global reserve currency, but in the new reality we cannot be the world's only police force - particularly where we are not invited. Libya matters to Europe because of oil and a potential flood of refugees; if they don't take a stronger position than they did in the Balkan Wars of the 90's, maybe the European Union needs to rethink their military policies.  If the Arab League doesn't want our help, well ...

    As we approach the 2012 elections there is a tendency to view the performance of the Obama administration in political terms. "Mubarak is not a tyrant" (Biden);  "his government is stable"(Clinton); "he must go now"(Carney); "we should impose a no fly zone in Libya" (Clinton); "we need to avoid loose talk about a no fly zone" (Gates).  It is clear that there is no coordinated strategy or position as each leader makes their own statements while policy is made up on the fly.  Thus far the result in the lesser countries is acceptable, but American leadership in the region is being badly eroded.   

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    Joe Biden is always good for a humorous video, here during a plant visit to tout the administration's heavy subsidies for electric cars.

bill bowen - 3/4/11

        

         

Comments

[Bill McCormick]

Hillary today: "We understand the urgency of this and are looking for ways to support the opposition. we are rushing our humanitarian aid to them." OMG -- America has been reduced to the role of watching the slaughter of thousands of people while offering blankets and bandages to a people who will soon need tombstones and asylum to escape torture chambers. The no fly zone was blocked again today by Germany and Russia and China.

Saturday only 24 hours after the earthquake devasted Japan and threatened nuclear poisining of their people and with Libya and the mideast in flames Obama delivered a radio address on women's advancement in the US and played his 61st round of golf since assuming the office. Still no leadership on the budget and spending. I feel like I'm watching Nero fiddle in a void of indifference on a leaderless ship.

[Bill McCormick]

What to do next? How long will we watch as the terrorist dictator slaughters his people before we take action? In a matter of a couple hours I suspect the US with one carrier of aircraft could put Libya's airforce out of business. And, give the mercenary force supporting Ghadfi a lot to think about. On the other side of the coin we will have one more country with oil to worry about emerging as a Muslim state of some sort. Perhaps better to help them than ignore their pleas for help. Or, since this is EU oil perhaps we let them do it.