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June 16, 2011

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THE MISERY INDEX---

As we enter the campaign to unseat the president--far too early by the way, we see a combination of two statistics that remain troubling. These statistics combine to make what is referred to as the MISERY index. Unemployment is high. At 9.1% it is well above the tradition comfort zone of Americans around 5-6%. It can be argued that it has dropped some from the 10% peak. Worse is the real unemployment figure that effects votes and that is likely around 14-16% that includes peolple who have stopped looking, people in temporary jobs and underemployed people. For Obama this will likely be the key to reelection. Can he get it down to where it was when he took office. And, can he continue to make the case that he saved us from the catastrophy he says GWB created? Not likely anymore. The second factor is the inflation index. While it took a big leap this reporting period he will likely benefit from the drop in gas prices recently. The Middle East has not erupted into all out war and that has helped. However, the devaluation of the dollar, the continued pressure on food costs triggered by the world demand for food and the increased use of food for ethanol production, the increase in taxes, and the increase cost of plastics and other products made from higher priced oil will continue to push inflation up despite lower housing prices.

Obama, if he loses can only blame his policies for the results. His antibusiness, prounion, alternative energy, big government approach has caused businesses both small and large to hold back on hiring and slowed the economic recovery. Virtually every promise Biden made along the way as the President's proxy has been wrong. His devaluation of the dollar, big government, big debt, Medical reform, environemntal oriented push toward alternative fuels have created rising inflation and stagnant job creation. And, now we have a MISERY INDEX that is climbing. It is no where near the levels of one termer Jimmy Carter but it is being felt in every household in the country. And, if it continues the Dems whether they hold the White House or not may pay another significant price in 2012. The Senate.

ON GLOBAL WARMING-----

And now scientists tell us that the sun's hotspots are going into hibernation. This will cool the earth for a long time--several decades perhaps. No one is sure why this happens but it has happened before in modern times and the last time it happened it led to what is referred to as the minnie Ice Age. Another natural event that will likely lead to weather changes that environmetalists will likely blame on mankind. Man's impact on the weather will continue to occur however it will be small compared to the impact of mother nature.

Hi LisainStlouis: Couldn't agree with you more. Immigrants for the most part work hard for less dollars. However, so do most Americans.Especially in this economy. In the past 30 years we have allowed nearly 30 Million illegal immigrants into the US. About 20 Million have been granted citizenship through amnesty programs sponsored by both sides. Unfortunately, we now have 12 Million or so illegals and a border open to many more. They now have a significant political influence on our policies as we see in the race for President and Congressional seats. So much so that they now can effectively influence the immigration policies of the country. Some call it invasion by immigration. My point here is that the case made most often by politicains ignoring the situation is that these workers are necessary to take the jobs no one else wants like farm workers and janitors. Unfortunately, that is not the only jobs these 30 million have taken. Our cities are full of out of work young black people. Our country is full of under employed black and white construction people. Mexicans may outwork some of them for less than going wage rates but not all of them. And, by taking those jobs they take away the basic starting jobs of many young Americans.
There are a billion or so potential immigrants who would love to relocate to the USA. How many would you like to let in then feed, educate, jail, provide healthcare for and compete with for jobs? I see a lot of minority small business owners in the country. My hat is off to them and their ingenuity and hard work. But, at the same time most of them employ more immigrants to gain the advantage in America. Family members maybe. Legal immigrants perhaps. Yhe more political influnce they gain the more the borders will open, the less enforcement will be applied and the more benefits American government will provide for them. If 50% of Americans currently pay no federal tax then what percentage of Mexican immigrants do you think contribute to the tax base of America? At the same time what % of the uncovered medical visitors to the emergency rooms do you think are mexican immigrants. Check with Claifornia to see the impact of uncontrolled illegal immigration over 30 years. I'm not antimexican immigrants, Lisa, I'm anti illegal immigration at the expense of young american's.

My hat is off to the Hispanic worker. He works! More interesting would be finding out how many other nationalities applied for those jobs. I assume the Mexican/Hispanic worker is legal since it is a federal project. In my area of the country, the hardest worker is the Hispanic - they work for their families both here and in Mexico or Central America. They are in the farms, the restaurants, the construction industry as well as housekeepers. They are honest and give a full day's work. We need a guest worker policy!

IMMIGRATION----

As I read with interest Bill's comments on jobs and the economy it brought to mind an example I observed last week of the impact of illegal immigration on jobs in the US. Route 3 in Fredericksburg, Va.,has had a sign on it since the stimulus bill was announced that read: Brought to you by the "American Recovery Act". The long awaited shovel ready project of about 4 miles of road widening finally began in April--nearly a full two years after the signs went up. As I drove through the work zone last week I counted the people working on the project. I counted 36 mexicans, 3 white males and 1 black male. So there we have it the American Recovery act is employing who? Not the middle class white workers, not the black workers but rather Mexican workers perhaps former illegal immigrants but immigrants none the less. You will find similar observations of county and state work crews along Highway 95 between Richmond and Washington DC and throughout the country. Good paying jobs that were formerly held by white and black Americans are now solidly in the hands of Mexican workers. These are not the jobs of picking fruit and vegetables in farm fields by migrants. Nor are the hundreds of thousands of jobs in the housing and commercial construction industry. Democrats may find the value of illegal immigration in generating future votes for their party but the offsetting political fallout of the deficits, debt, social cost and the loss of higer paying jobs as Mexicans climb the ladder will eventually offset the gains.

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