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July 28, 2011

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I'm not as pessimistic. I think the economy will recover once the bickering is over. It will not recover quickly until 2012 is over because the politicians are going to continue fighting.. I think a deal will be struck before August 8. I think the President will win reelection in a close battle with Romney. The Senate will be close and could go either way. The House however will likely be less divided and swing back in balance. The Conservatives will pay a price for their stance--right or wrong. They always do.

A note on the "Balance" component of Cut, Cap, abnd Balance: A strong majority of the public favor a structural change to the system, such as a Balanced Budget Amendment. That may well eventually pass - there are lots more Red states than Blue, so if it gets out into the countryside it has a good chance. However, it needs to be well structured - what counts as revenue?; what counts as expenditures?; how are national emergencies to be handled?; what are the timeframes that balance is required? Most states require a balanced budgert, but the folks out here in California have figured out how to bring forward the revenue from the tobacco settlement by selling bonds, exempt public employee retirement obligations, etc. etc. It can be done, but it will require careful thought.


"Calculus 221 intervening" NOT BUYING THAT

Negotiating 'deficits' and strategies were certainly in short supply. Points all very well taken. Unfortunately, 2 election cycles just may be the only solution. A more immediate correction to the problem ,however, might be the replacement of both House and Senate Leadership.
It was a shame that 'Cut ,Cap & Balance' (HR2560 (112)went virtually unsupported. Should have been a "full court press" on both it and Sen Coburns 'Composite' solution; having taken the best from all three partisan Commissions.

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