I have received quite a bit of blow-back for last week's suggestion that Hillary Clinton's foreign policy performance has made her a powerful Democratic choice for VP, and perhaps for president. My point was about her political position; the Obama foreign policy legacy is a longer (and sadder) story, but it might as well begin here.
The big picture:
1. After a doubling of our forces in Afghanistan (truly Obama's war), we are drawing down there, have exited Iraq (where America's influence is rapidly being eclipsed by Iran), and have had a very light footprint in places such as Libya, Somalia, and Yemen. Al Queda is decimated, but anti-Western Muslim fundamentalism lives; we just confront it in the way that Donald Rumsfeld advocated - with small special forces operations, the CIA, and the TSA. Most would agree that it is good to be ending the larger post-9/11 wars, and that the administration is "directionally correct."
2. To a large extent Obama tried to reach out to our adversaries - Iran; North Korea; Cuba - offering talks with no preconditions, while slighting many friends: Great Britain (removing Churchill's bust from the Capitol for example), Canada (the XL Pipeline for example); Mexico (Fast and Furious for example); Poland (missile defense agreements for example.) This got missile tests in Korea and the back of a hand from Iran and Castro. There have been few gestures of solidarity with other major allies - Japan (despite the potential to help after the tsunami), Germany (who seems to be alone in defending financial integrity in Europe), Israel (advocating a return to the '67 borders). The" re-set" of the relation with Russia is over, as evidenced by Putin's snub of the upcoming G-8 meeting in New York. Overall, it has been a naive rookie performance - more like Jimmy Carter than Nixon or Reagan.
3. For neo-isolationists on the Left and Right who think that the US should not get involved in other countries' affairs Obama has generally been good news. The Arab Spring has come and gone with little effort by the US to help bend it in the direction of western democracy - first in Iran in 2009, then in Egypt and Libya, and now in Syria, where an overthrow of Assad would be a blow to Iran. The Obama Doctrine was accurately described in the liberal New Yorker as "leading from behind".
4. Not much karma has been used in defending American companies around the world. Trade with China - including exchange rates, intellectual property protection, and Chinese import restrictions on things such as automotive products - is a big issue which Romney will emphasize. Brazil's criminal prosecution of US oil industry executives for a relatively small spill draws no response. And then, there is no administration response to having the world's highest corporate income tax rate.
In political terms, Obama's general retreat from the international stage may have been what people want - reflecting exhaustion from the Iraq and Afghan wars. The bad news is that the world is a dangerous place (particularly Iran, Pakistan, and Korea) while America's economic success is inevitably tied to our position as the world's economic, political, monetary, and military leader - and the result of electing a president whose inclinations are against business and the military has been predictable.
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This week we have two videos: one in France where the victorious Socialist, Francois Hollande, has promised a 75% tax on the French 1%; the other in Oakland where we may soon have a combined state/federal rate of over 60% with the proposals of President Obama and Governor Brown.
bill bowen - 5/18/2012
AND SO GOES THE WORLD--
Anyone beginning to figure out the World economic cycle? As the US suffers the great recession: 2008-Present, the politicains begin to look at the manufacturing prodigies, China,South Korea,Japan and India as well as the social welfare states in Europe and reengineer America to look like them. Unfortunatley, now that we are headed that way the recession is cycling it's way to them. This is, of course, caused by the fact that the US represents the biggest consumer market by far in the world. And, those countries who were basking in the glow of prosperity are now watching their GDP fall dramatically. The President can no longer point a finger at the wonderful solar energy transformation of Spain to redine American energy policy. Spain teeters on the verge of national bankruptcy. Nor can he run to China and India to make new trade agreements as Americans are not buying. China has now truned away from the manufacture of basic products and instead is in the business of making hi tech clones of American products following exactly the Japanese path of the 80's. When America stops spending the world slows. And, now it has hit hime. All those "developing markets" will slow and overseas profits of US manufacturers will dry up unless the US gets its fiscal policies fixed to handle the debt and spending orgy we have been on for 4 years. Our stimulus fueled the Chinese and Indian economy but now that it is over they are being hit hard. And, their ability to buy US debt will decline.
Posted by: Bill McCormick | May 24, 2012 at 10:19 AM
DON"T YOU JUST LOVE IT?
As if we didn't all know that our Congress is totally out of business waiting for the election to get over, the Congressional Budget Office adds to the depressed mood of the country with a warning that the pending fiscal cliff could push the country into a recession soon. I guess warning shots are sometimes good but in this case with business and consumer confidence in the tank what good does it do to broadcast more doom and gloom to a President and Congress that are more interested in election strategy than solving the problems they were elected to fix.
With Europe showing us a glimpse of our future, Japan getting a fiscal downgrade, the stock market sagging, housing stuck in a 5 year recession and unemployment rampant amoung college graduates, inner city youth and people over 55; we have the VP attacking every segment of the Republican party and the President ignoring all calls to leave the campaign trail and come to work. Meanwhile the Senate is holding hearings on why unemployment of 55+ year olds has doubled since 2008.
Internationally, Syria continues to kill it's people. Iran stalls at the peace talks. Pakistan continues to block NATO shipments into Afghanistan. Russia boycotts the G-8 meeting.
Yesterday I saw a city council meeting tape on NYC people who were demanding the City do something about the increased number of Mosquitos as a result of the warmer winter. Down here we hire a pest control company for $100/year to spray them, put OFF on our kids and put out torches on our porches to chase them off. How far is the nanny state supposed to go?
Posted by: Bill McCormick | May 23, 2012 at 11:40 AM
This one isn't mine but I found it posted on CNBC. It received 70 agreeds and 8 disagreeds. Further evidence of my point that even Democrats are getting tired of the smoke and mirrors diversions.
A Democratic Mayor; Newarks Booker, got caught up in a conversation, said what he truly believed, and forgot the party line. He was then reprimanded by the party Union Boss and since has recanted his former comments sort of. This is the Soviet Union in the 60's. We used to read the Soviet News Agency TASS and joke about how it was just the party line and none of it was believable. It was a joke to us then and it is a joke to us now. All this dem/rep union is interested in are themselves and maintaining power. Is it any wonder so many Americans feel disenfranchised to the point of not even listening!
Posted by: Bill McCormick | May 22, 2012 at 02:49 PM
MORE MAGIC NUMBERS
New home sales rose 3.4% in April (by the way 3.4% of very little is very,very little) after the March numbers were revised DOWNWARD. The smoke and mirrors campaign continues!Revise March down and then April looks up until we revise it next month.
Fitch downgraded Japan. They based it on higher domestic debt and slow plans to deal with it. Japan's econmy is predicted to grow 2% this year and 1.5% next year. After nearly 20 years of stimulus, government run economic plans and growing debt the once powerful Japanese economy is flat at best. America what does Fitch really think of us?
Democratic Mayor chastised seriously after he said the Obama attacks on Romney and Captialism were making him sick. A lot of Democrats getting tired of the smoke and mirrors campaign?
The President defended the violent NATO protestors as simply doing what NATO defends them to do: demonstrate. I wonder if Martin Luther King would have been so happy with their behavior?
And, then there is Facebook. I wonder who reviewed the financial reports of Facebook for the SEC? I think that Facebook has to get to nearly $3 Trillion in sales in order to get the PE ratio of Apple. I am buying it on the way down. A little smoke and mirrors here?
GM, the Nation's car company, gives up on Facebook advertising AND THE SUPERBOWL. Their IPO is performing similarly to Facebook.
Posted by: Bill McCormick | May 22, 2012 at 10:59 AM
MUST BE THE CONFUSION; Those darn 'BIRTHERS'have come up with another problem (discussion of 5/18 on WORD Radio). Seems an add pamphlet for a 1991 book by Obama with a title concerned with "Seeing Life in Black & White" has surfaced. (Discovery by two of Breightbart's researchers)
The publicist at the time must not have gotten the word. He has the following:"Born in Kenya, raised in Indonesia,educated at Columbia School of Journalism".
This character cannot be allowed to register on any Ballot without
credentials.
Posted by: DickG | May 18, 2012 at 08:52 AM
NICE SUMMATION; I seriously hope this is sent to the 'Campaign'. I think this Campaign Manager is over-rated. In '08,both McCain and Romney remained in their 'comfort zone'in that respect. It cost us dearly. The only thing I would add is the Brazilian 'Oil INVESTMENT'
fiasco; while attempting to devistate the US's progress.
Posted by: DickG | May 17, 2012 at 02:17 PM