The conventional wisdom is that in presidential elections two thirds of the states are so one-sided that they are irrelevant except for fund-raising. Most polling is done at a national level which doesn't mean much, and there are varying opinions about the prospects for each of the swing states. How to think about the math? Here are a few tools:
1. Charlie Cook's Partisan Voter Index, or PVI. The premise is that each state has a predictable spread above or below neutral, and that by taking the national Obama/Romney result and overlaying it on each state's traditional bias you can get a projection of how the national result would impact each of the swing states. As a starting point there are 14 states with 171 electoral votes with a history of being within a plus or minus four range, with the rest being irretrievably red (181) or blue (186).
2. Sean Trende recently wrote a great article on Real Clear Politics providing the PVI for most states for each of the last eight presidential elections, drawing a trend line for each. Some, like coal-based West Virginia, have moved significantly Republican; others, like Illinois have gone in the opposite direction. The electoral votes and PVI's (with a + meaning advantage Republican) for the middle 14 "swing" states are:
Colorado (9) +0
Florida (29) +2
Iowa (6) -1
Michigan (16) -4
Minnesota (10) -2
Missouri (10) +3
Nevada (6) -1
New Hampshire (4) -2
New Mexico (5) -2
North Carolina (15) +4
Ohio (18) +1
Pennsylvania (20) -2
Virginia (13) +2
Wisconsin (10) -2
3. 270 to Win offers an interactive map which allows the reader to designate the winner in each state, showing the overall outcome. In the case of a national tie in voter totals and assigning the above PVI values to the swing states, Romney would have 266 electoral votes (the base 181 plus 85), Obama would have 263 (the base 186 plus 77), and Colorado's 9 would be a toss-up. A national plus 1% in either direction or movement of a single swing state in either direction would mean victory. It is that close.
Adding some subjectivity, it is hard to be optimistic about the states with large, growing Mexican-American populations (Colorado; Nevada; New Mexico), Romney must win Ohio and Florida, and has reason to be optimistic about Wisconsin (Scott Walker), New Hampshire (vacation home; neighbor), and Iowa (gay marriage). On Obama's side it is hard to see him winning without Pennsylvania; he should carry Michigan (auto bailout); and Virginia (layoff threat to the DC suburbs). With that, plus Minnesota (Democrat) and Missouri (Republican) reverting to form, the outcome would be... da da da ... Romney 273, Obama 265. A piece of cake.
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For those who missed it, here's the video of the president of the South Carolina AFL-CIO explaining her opposition to the pro-business policies of Governor Nikki Haley. Imagine the media outrage if the tables were turned.
bill bowen - 5/25/2012
'ROLLING THUNDER'; After spending 'X' number of years in RVN combating Indonesian Communists; why would the absence of one be a concern.
Thank You Lisa for your thoughtful comment.
Posted by: DickG | May 31, 2012 at 04:57 PM
AND ON THE HOME FRONT---
JOBLESS CLAIMS rose to 388,000 as employers announced layoffs of 61,887 employees.
NEW JOBS--were revised down to 119,000 for April and reported at 133,000 for May well below expectations.
GDP GROWTH was revised down from 2.2% for the first quarter to 1.9%.
The SMOKE AND MIRRORS revisions continue but as the smoke clears it is becoming more and more apparent that the economy is struggling no matter what is reported the unemployment picture worsens.
HOME DEPOT's Founder said yesterday on CNBC that Obama has nothing in common with Bill Clinton in working with businesses to create jobs and has created an administration of Academics who have no clue as to what it takes to run a business. He contends that Bill Clinton worked hard to understand businesses and to help them while Obama makes life more amd more difficult for them to know what to expect and to create jobs. When asked if he thinks it would be possible to start a new company that would rise to the level of Home Depot under this administration he said "no".
Posted by: Bill McCormick | May 31, 2012 at 09:43 AM
JUST WHEN YOU THOUGHT IT WAS GETTING BETTER:
IRAN is found to have enriched Uranium much higher than we thought. And, they say it was by accident. Just think what is in their sites we havn't inspected.Now, in the middle of the "talks" tey announce their missiles can reach US bases.
SYRIA uses the cease fire to slaughter more of their people. We throw out their ambassador.
EGYPTIAN elections will include a candidate from the radical Muslim brotherhood.
PAKISTAN sentences our CIA man who helped us bring down Bin Laden to 33 years and trhreatens his family. Hopefully the Seals are on their way in. Pakistan demands we stop drone strikes. Pakistan continues to deny our shipments to Afghanistan. We cut their budget $33M.
OBAMA ignores 500,000 in Rolling Thunder and then gives a big speech in support of the Vietnam vets.
Posted by: Bill McCormick | May 30, 2012 at 10:26 AM
MORE VANISHING NUMBERS as the smoke clears. Consumer confidence revised down to 68.4% for April (surprise) fell to 64.5% in May as consumers worry about jobs. Housing prices SPIKED .0009!
The President disappointed the Rolling Thunder bikers who rode to DC to honor Veterans by spending only a few minutes with their leaders for a photo op. More than 500,000 rolled into the Capital for the meeting. The crowds didn't disappoint them however. I guess he doesn't need the Veteran's vote. But, then it was Memorial Day was it not? One of my friends who rode with them was very unhappy.
Posted by: Bill McCormick | May 29, 2012 at 12:07 PM
I know that many of the reader's of this blog have served in the military at some point in their life. With all that is going on in this country, I would like to thank each of you. You gave up a portion of your life and have made it possible for us to have these conversations about our government without fear of reprisal. Whether or not you were at a desk in the US or on the battlefield, you are my hero! God Bless each of you!
Posted by: LisainSt.Louis | May 28, 2012 at 03:36 PM
ON OCT 26 1980; 'GALLUP' SAID, "Carter 47% Reagan 39%". Reagan swept 44 States following their final debate. Truth will win out in the END.
Posted by: DickG | May 25, 2012 at 06:38 AM
WORTH A LOOK AT THE REAGAN CAMPAIGN IN MAY '80; Both fiscally Conservative Governors coming in on the heels of a 'Gang that Couldn't Shoot Straight'. Plus, considering Romney's recent exit from the 9 mo. 'Cockfight'; this 'early on' projected 'Electoral College'position is nothing short of terrific.
Posted by: DickG | May 24, 2012 at 10:37 PM