Lots of ink is being spilled over Romney's VP choice - the alternatives, the criteria, the process being managed by long-time trusted lieutenant Beth Myers - but the decision which may have a greater impact on the November outcome may actually be on the Democratic side. The conventional wisdom is that Biden is a repeat, Hillary retires for awhile, and Mario Cuomo joins the two of them in competing for the 2016 presidential nomination. But maybe not.
The premise: Most observers anticipate a close election with likely voters now saying we are on the "wrong track" by a two to one margin, placing the economy as the most important issue by a double digit margin, and favoring Romney on the economy by a similar amount. Romney will want to focus on the current malaise and Obama's lack of any long term solutions while Obama will want to focus on income inequality and anything else. Even the "I Man" must know that he needs help.
From Hillary's perspective, assuming that she still wants the presidency when she turns 69 in 2016 (admittedly a big assumption), there are four possibilities: sit it out and compete to replace a President Romney (worst chance); sit it out and compete to succeed a reelected President Obama; be the loyal VP candidate and compete to replace a President Romney; or be a loyal VP and compete to follow a reelected President Obama (best chance; least work). She would, of course, have to be asked.
From David Axelrod's perspective, Hillary's labor support would have a strong chance to solidify key industrial swing states which are likely wins anyway (Pennsylvania; Michigan), a few that are true toss-ups (Wisconsin), and a few that are more tenuous, but on a "must have" list for Romney (Ohio). Ironically, in this fifth decade of feminism, the list of leading Democratic women is very short - Nancy Pelosi (nope), Debbie Wasserman-Schultz (nope), Maxine Waters (nope). Bad luck,former Governor Jennifer Granholm of Michigan was born in Canada. Even with a reach, there is no Sarah Palin, Michele Bachmann, Nikki Haley, or Susana Martinez. And if Romney owns the economic issues, maybe it would be better to play up Hillary's international experience.
Those who read the tea leaves make something of the apparent exclusion of Joe Biden from Obama's weekly campaign meetings - although there are undoubtedly scratches on the outside of the door. Biden's pushing of Obama into supporting gay marriage could have some impact on their relationship, and the former chair of the Senate Foreign Relations Committee might graciously accept a swap of roles. And if not Biden, who? The silence is deafening.
So, assuming that the Romney campaign is not asleep, what do you do about this woman who has rehabilitated herself to the point that Bush carry-over Secretary of Defense Robert Gates has described her as "Tough. Indefatigable. Patient. Smart. Knowledgeable. Superior political instincts. Funny. Loyal team player. Finds opportunities in crises and challenges. Skilled global advocate for American interests and American values." All of this has room for debate - and criticism of the handling of the Chen Guangcheng incident is aimed at Hillary as much as at Obama.
Who'd have thought that the Republicans would be hoping for another turn with Joe Biden?
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And in the spirit of providing equal time, this week's video is a speech by Joe Biden praising Jon Corzine as the smartest financial person he knows - just before Corzine bankrupted MF Global by betting on European bonds and inappropriately transferred $1.6 billion in client funds in a futile effort to cover his losses. At long last, somebody - Congressman Michael Grimm - is calling for Eric Holder to turn the investigation of $500,000 Obama bundler Corzine over to an independent counsel.
bill bowen - 5/11/12
"STATS OR POLITICS" on POLLS; We should push our News forecasters for full disclosure on polling criteria. Because the media is occupied by such a high percentage of liberal leaning folks; poll info should be highly suspect; especially with such a 'marginal president' .
Posted by: DickG | May 17, 2012 at 11:14 AM
THE MAGIC NUMBERS:
Today the Fed stirred the market's blood with new numbers on Industrial Production up 1.1% and capacity utilization at 79.2% up from 78.4%. At the same time the Fed revised March's numbers downward. They revised March's industrial production downward .6% and capacity down to 78.4%. By doing this monthly it gives the misleading perception that when we get an uptick it is much bigger than it is. The Fed is supposedly nonpolitical but ---there appears to be the smoke and mirrors magic in their numbers. Another example is Housing starts and permits. Now, what do you think shows the direction of the economy? Starts or permits? Today the Feds numbers on starts were up 717,000 from a revised 699,000 and permits were down to 715,000 from a revised 769,000 in March. Stats or politics?
Posted by: Bill McCormick | May 16, 2012 at 10:40 AM
"THE OTHER VEEP"- To Be Sure; For those who said 4 years ago that Hillary was a great 'fit'; see USA TODAY (above the fold)"Clinton Welcomes France's new path". And we thought there was only ONE in power.
Posted by: DickG | May 16, 2012 at 09:09 AM
Bill Bowen is spot-on with his Hillary as VP analysis. It is not beyond the realm of possibilities that this well-honed campaign to define the Republicans as at war with women, is a prelude to announcing Hillary as VP. She would be foolish to refuse the option to be a "loyal VP and compete to follow a reelected President Obama (best chance; least work)."
Al Smith 5/11/2012
Posted by: Al Smith | May 11, 2012 at 01:40 PM
DON'T WAIT FOR THE FED THIS TIME:
Beranke to the rescue one more time? Nope --in Congress this week the Fed Chairman basically called out the Administration and Congress and indicated that the psychological and financial problems caused by the inaction of government to address the so called "financial cliff" are too big for the Feds to overcome. Basically, Bernake says that if government leaders abdicate their roles and responsiblities to the Feds then they create uncertainty that cannot be overcome with monetary policy. We have now had 3 years of uncertainty. Basically fiscal uncertainty led by no budget. Tax uncertainty as we roll back payroll taxes and bounce back and forth between the Bush tax cuts extended and not extended. Debt uncertainty as we kick the can down the road on deficit reduction and entitlement reform. Massive expenditures looming on the horizon for Healthcare implimentation.
It appears that the Fed chairman is looking at Europe and trying to explain to Congress and the President that they were elected to act to solve problems not pass them on to him. Printing money is no good in the long run. It does not create jobs. Artifically low interest rates cannot go on forever. The longer you wait to move to austerity and reform the worse it ultimately impacts.
DEMOCRATS REVOLT: The move by Senator Webb to impose constraints on Presidential power to intervene in foreign countries is a mild revolt on Obama. Biden's acceptance of Gay marriage over Obama's view was a mild revolt by the left. Yesterday Democrats joined Republicans in demanding that Holder release the information on "Fast and Furious". Not good news for the President.
Posted by: Bill McCormick | May 11, 2012 at 10:09 AM
DITTO On HILLARY; The Clinton's look terrific so long as they are without the 'final say' on critical issues. Let's face it; they were 'steamrolled' into 'fiscal austerity'. From Bill Clinton's dishonesty and treason upon his first encounter with the Federal Selective Service Board; to his incredibly dishonable personal life.
Neither Bill Clinton nor Hillary have the critical skills and integrity required to 'rite the ship'.
Leave Joe Biden, who is a 'personification' of the 'Gang That Couldn't Shoot Straight',at his present 'Post'. Any other person assigned to the Post would only disallusion us.
Posted by: DickG | May 10, 2012 at 09:03 PM
YOU GOT TO BE KIDDING: Tomorrow Senator Webb from Virginia will introduce legislation to call for the President to get Congressional approval before intervening in another country for humanitarian reasons. We are going to wait for Congress to act? We've been waiting for Congress to act on our problems for 3 years now. WWII would have come and gone before this Congress would act!
This is another Democratic diversion from the real issues--right? Or is this the Democrats saying they don't like the humanitarian actions of Obama or to prevent the War with China over a disident?
HILLARY competant? This is the lady who called ASSAD the best reformist dictator in the Middle East. What has she accomplished as Secretary of State? How are relations with Pakistan,Egypt,Iraq,Venezuela,Mexico,Iran,Syria and all the other problems that were on the world plate when she and Obama took office? She's just Obama in female form.
Posted by: Bill McCormick | May 10, 2012 at 08:15 PM