The debate du jour within the Republican Party is not about philosophy or objectives, it is about the best strategy for defunding Obamacare. One group thinks it must be done now, before it gets ingrained in our national welfare state; the other thinks it more realistic to marshall the political resources to roll it back in 2014 or 2016. Neither adequately addresses what comes next. Some observations:
For the "do it now" advocates (House Republicans; Ted Cruz):
- A majority of the public believe that the new law will make the healthcare system worse, but that number is volatile. Liberals complain about a few ads encouraging people not to sign up, but future months will see a billion dollar advertisement campaign from the administration, insurance companies and other advocates.
- We are at the peak moment of dysfunction. Thirty six states have decided to let the feds run their exchanges. Several large insurance companies have decided not to participate. Polling shows that most young people will choose not to buy insurance despite the mandate. Computer glitches abound. Clerks managing subsidies will have access to previously private health records and income tax returns - and for 2014 will accept applicants claims of income without any verification. Much of this will be worked out in a year or two, if not in months.
- Even if Republicans hold the House and win the Senate in 2014, President Obama will veto any rollback. A trifecta in 2016 is far from inevitable. The surest approach is to attach a defund mandate to a bill that the Senate and the President must pass and sign - a continuing budget resolution or a debt limit increase.
- Election losses following the 1995 government shutdown are a myth - Newt Gingrich's Republicans held the House and gained Senate seats in 1996. It is the president who refuses to negotiate on the budget, the debt limit, or Obamacare. It is the president who grossly misrepresented the impact of Obamacare on the middle class in terms of taxes, change of doctors, and change of insurance carriers.
For the "marshall the resources" advocates (The Republican establishment):
- Don't worry about the law succeeding. Tens of billions in new taxes will hit the public as they prepare 2013 and 2014 tax returns. Unions and the public understand that the employer mandates are destroying the 40 hour work week and full time jobs in the service sector. Doctors are dropping Medicare while Obamacare is trying to add 30 million patients. Insurance companies will be offering inferior provider networks at mostly higher rates, higher deductibles and higher co-pays. Corporations are requiring hundreds of thousands of employees to purchase their own insurance. The individual mandate and required coverage for contraception and morning after pills remain strongly unpopular.
- Rarely does a political party face a president whose "signature accomplishment" is so unpopular and so difficult to implement. There is a golden opportunity to force Democrats in red states to take votes that will be vastly unpopular - particularly Mark Begich of Alaska, Mark Pryor of Arkansas, Mary Landrieu of Louisiana, and Kay Hagan of North Carolina who face reelection in 2014. Ted Cruz has helped to shine the spotlight. A pickup of 5 is needed for control.
Most analysts, and even firebrands such as Rand Paul, believe that the Republicans will eventually give in rather than risk giving up a winning political hand for 2014.
But this is only the prelude. Beyond "defunding Obamacare", the Republicans need a plan of their own. Elements could include tort reform, selling insurance across state lines, perhaps a base government-funded catastrophic insurance, perhaps enhanced Health Savings Accounts, something to enhance access for people with preexisting conditions, perhaps the popular requirement that kids could remain dependents until age 26. The absence of a Republican alternative creates two problems:
1. In the ongoing debate it is hard to beat something with nothing.
2. More importantly, as Obamacare becomes increasingly unpopular the Democrats have a Plan B - "single payer", perhaps in the form of Medicare for everybody, with current support from folks such as Harry Reid, unions, and other advocates for a government run national healthcare system.
In 2016 a Democratic candidate promising to simplify the system and get rid of insurance companies will have an attractive message. Republicans had best get their plan put forth while the Democrats are still concentrating on the Obamacare monstrosity.
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This week's video shows President Bush at Yankee Stadium for the World Series in New York after 9/11. Exceptional.
And for those who have 10 minutes to better understand Ted Cruz, here is Cruz' father discussing Cuba and his son's upbringing.
bill bowen - 9/27/13
DULY PASSED LAW; how many Constitutional INFRINGEMENTS do you suppose might have been committed during the PROCESSING of the ACA-'Alinsky Care Access' Law ?
Posted by: DickG | October 03, 2013 at 10:28 PM
Do any of you care that a duly passed law (confirmed by The Supreme Court) may be overturned by a minority in one political party through extortion? If this should happen, then any group with a bit of leverage could alter/repeal ANY law even though that law be passed by congress.
That result would be a travesty of the American system and threatens our entire system of governance. This is profoundly not a CONSERVATIVE position. It proposes a new way to conduct our nation's business. Our current form of government would be profoundly altered and we (all of us) would have to come up with a new system of governance. The American experiment would be over.
Posted by: harrycat | October 03, 2013 at 11:38 AM
WILL 'HARRY' THROW 'BARRY' UNDER THE BUS ? Harry Reid's bigger fear,the true proportion of Essential vs Non Essential government. It's coming into the public's focus..What action will a true 'Allinskyite' take ?
Posted by: DickG | October 01, 2013 at 09:09 AM
SEN CRUZ ON LIMBAUGH; Another case of 'what you suspected' about the majority of Republican
Congressmen is true. Cruz said it on national radio. -quote- "They (Republicans)
have been beaten down and have been there too long; they don't think they can
win". "They don't even talk about how to win". "All they talk about at lunch is
comming up with a 'SHOW PONY' legislative move to fake out their constituents."
"There is little or no leadership". "It's all 'go along and get along' ". -end
quote (+or- a few words).
I know it's no schock but when they admit it; it's bad, real bad. They've
surrendered The Country to the 'Allinsky-ites'. When we hear, "let your
Congressmen know about it".;we've got to do it. He says they respond to that. It
scares them into action;including many Democrats who's support for 'O'Care is
very thin.
Thank God we had men of more stearner stuff at Lexington, Trenton,New Orleans,The Ardennes, Normandy, Guadalcanal, Midway,Okinawa,The Bulge, In Chon, Chosin,Con Thien,Hue,Fellujah,Afghanistan.
Posted by: DickG | September 29, 2013 at 08:10 AM
IT'S CALLED "TORTLESS REFORM" AND IT WORKS. The experiment was conducted with malpractice costs years ago for Anesthesiologists. The "Admitted Fault" approach was documented by Gibson & Singh in their 2012 Book 'The Battle With Healthcare Reform'. The solution proved to be a simple admission by the hospital and physician to the patient. Having assumed responsibility, a solution at no cost to the patient and a retirement of the entire Hospital Bill is carried out.
The result was a 2/3 reduction in malpractice costs and premiums (and NO TORT).
The Obama 'Allinskees' turned away from this 'COST DRIVER' as they did all others of any significance. WHY ? 'The Trial Lawyers Association' rejected "The Admitted Fault" approach. Large Hospital Networks, and Pharmaceuticals that represented $20,000,000. size campaign donors,also turned 'The Allinskees' up an 'allyway'.
Because making campaign financial pursuit the almighty priority; the one primary 'healthcare problem'(COST) haunting us all was cast into the obscurity of a 2700 page debaucle. The potential cost of this 'Signature Legislation'-CALAMITY. Any more ideas Saul ?
Posted by: DickG | September 28, 2013 at 08:33 AM
TWO ASSUMPTIONS WHICH SHOULD NOT BE MADE;(1)That the 'Medical Industrial Complex',as we know it,is reversible to it's former status ;should 'Obamacare' implode. (2) That re-organized business models, having adjusted employee levels to avoid 'Obamacare'mandates, will recover after a time to their former hiring levels.
Posted by: DickG | September 26, 2013 at 10:28 PM
THE REPUBLICANS NEED TO GET INTO THE FIGHT, NOW. The hope of future calamity befalling these Socialist zealots are not likely. As any bad news arises , 'bond printing' could accellerate at an unimagined rate. No doubt these folks would calapse the entire economy wrather than have 'Obamacare' implode. Lawlessness and unbridled waste has been demonstrated for the past 5 years. SHUT IT DOWN NOW, while you have some semblance of CONTROL and the last workable opportunity at forcing responsible action. When in History have the Republicans had Business and The Unions backing them up ? If they can't pull it off now; disband the Party or surrender all Leadership positions to the Tea Party. It's OVER !
Posted by: DickG | September 26, 2013 at 09:36 PM