Hillary's State Department Resume

    New Year's Resolution # 1 - No Hillary posts until something really happens. Just this one exception (kind of like the resolution about creme brule.)

    The December CNN poll showing Hillary Clinton and Chris Cristie to be statistically tied as the leading candidates for 2016 reflects the importance of name recognition, but this far in advance, not much more. What is worth a bit of attention is the formation of the "Ready for Hillary" PAC which will be a better test of whether the Clintonistas who have been in the wasteland for 13 years can scare off potential Democratic opponents - younger (Maryland Governor O'Malley; NY Governor Cuomo; Massachusetts Senator Warren) and older (VP Biden; California Governor Brown who may just have some gas left in the tank.) The answer - highly unlikely. She will have to win a real contest within the Democratic Party.

    In the Democratic primaries or against a Republican opponent, a major question will be about her accomplishments as Secretary of State. Beyond the miles, where's the beef?  

    The first test is Benghazi. Media friends at the Times have started running articles about those Republicans who "long ago abandoned common sense and good judgment in pursuit of conspiracy-mongering and an obsessive effort to discredit President Obama and former Secretary of State Hillary Rodham." Long before 2016 the machine would have us forget that Hillary's State Department left the consulate poorly defended, that senior Washington leaders chose not to send reinforcements, and that the investigation was delayed and desultory. Eventually, however, the Democrat or Republican debate opponent will be able to answer the Secretary's question of "what difference does it make" whether her ambassador's killers were terrorists or "some guys out for a walk." Does the Secretary know that we still have organized deadly terrorist opponents?

    More importantly, Secretary Clinton missed all of the big international developments of President Obama's first term:

    - The Arab Spring. Indecision lost opportunities in Tunisia, Libya, Egypt, and Syria.

    - Spying. From the 2010 Bradley Manning/Julian Assange Wikileaks disclosures of thousands of State Department cables to the 2012 Edward Snowden release of NSA's trove of information, the Secretary was a silent observer as American diplomacy was pummeled.

    - Wars. A failure to negotiate a "status of forces" agreement with Iraq resulted in the complete withdrawal of NATO forces and a resurgent conflict between the Sunni's and the Shia. The expanded Afghan war dragged on through Hillary's term with no clear objectives, exit plan, or diplomatic agreement with President Karzai.    

     - Russia. Hillary's term coincided with Vladimir Putin's assertion of Russian influence as we backed off on missile defenses in Eastern Europe, winced as Putin granted asylum to Snowden, gave up leadership in Syria, and eventually saw Ukraine's leadership decide to throw in their lot with Russia rather than the European Union. So much for the "re-set".  

    - East Asia. The "pivot to Asia" has had little substance as China has expanded its confrontation with Japan and Vietnam in the South China Sea. Dennis Rodman was the de facto ambassador to North Korea.

    - Iran. We missed the chance to diminish Iran's allies in Syria and Hezbollah while the nuclear program inched along until after she left office.

    - Primary allies. Relations dropped substantially with Israel, the UK (the Churchill bust as an indicator), and Canada (XL Pipeline nominally a State Department decision.) 

    There is room to argue that the passive withdrawal around the world has been the result of President Obama's view that American presence abroad is more of a problem for the world than a benefit, and that Hillary could not contradict the Commander in Chief. In some circles that will work, but "I was just following orders" does not make a great campaign slogan.

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    This week's video is a reminder of what comes with Hillary.

bill bowen - 1/3/13  

    

  

    

  

Comments

[Bill McCormick]

I COULD NOT SLEEP last night thinking about the state of our national defense that many of you gave so many years of your lives to strengthen and maintain. And those of our friends who died defending us. And, I'm a pretty good sleeper. Exactly what is the strategic value of telling the enemy and allies what our strategy is? When Secretary Kerry went on the air and told the Al Queda leaders and the Iraq leaders that we would not intervene on behalf of the Iraq government we created and support what exactly was he telling the world? I know that a man like Kerry with a similar thought pattern of Jane Fonda must be terrified that Americans might actually suspect he and the President are about to restart the Iraq war that they still blame on President Bush. In the meantime he takes away the use of surgical strike, special forces and drones to defend our interests in the region. I guess they just feel they lost so much credibility when they told Syria that they would strike them if they used chemical weapons and then backed down when Putin jumped in that they cannot make threats any more. And, so we tell the enemy "go ahead an strike". This is similar to the President's build up of Afghanistan force announcement with a simultaneous announcement that we would withdraw 30 months later. When I was doing it the white House had strategic thinkers who understood military strategy and operations. Those people kept their options open, the enemy guessing and their mouths shut. Why is this administration so afraid of the American people?

[Bill McCormick]

AMAZING isn't it that today's trade deficit numbers showed the effects of the oil bonanza on our BOP deficit. Oil has accounted for most of the US's tepid economic gains over the past 6 years. Now that the inventory build up for Christmas is over the decrease in oil and gas imports is clearly seen. This single statistic is likely to make the GDP number look even better. Ironic that oil, the second most hated product on the President's list next to coal, is producing the economic growth, the GDP boost and likely the only gain in jobs that we've seen in 6 years.

APPLE, the greatest company on earth, did $50B in their Apple stores in 2013 and $10B in December. Funny that analysts cannot seem to find a reason to promote it preferring Amazon with no profit and Samsung who actually has the most mobile phone competitors in their low priced space.

[Bill McCormick]

TROUBLING SIGNS today on a number of fronts:

1. Secretary of State Kerry says today that the US will NOT help Iraq fight Al Queda. This is their fight he says.

2. Secretary of State Kerry invites Iran to the Syrian talks turning against France and Saudi Arabia as well as the US former position.

WHERE has the US opposition to terror gone? Where are the drones and special forces? All of a sudden we seem to be back to the "love em" foreign policy the President avoided in his first term.

3. The 12 year average GDP of the US has fallen from 4% in 1980 to 1.8% under the current administration and Fed. The Fed will replace a very Dovish Chairman who printed $4T in money to revive an economy with an extremely Dovish Chairman. Very tough to lower unemployment if you cannot get GDP above 3%.

4. US High school students are starting to shun college educations. Projections are that enrollment in college will fall 10% over the next decade.

It seems that political leaders, with all their dependency programs are beginning to have the impact of creating a "no white picket fence, no college education, no permanent job" mentality in our society.

ON THE good news side: Boeing workers defied their union bosses and voted with the company management to keep their jobs in Seattle. A result that could never have been foreseen by the administration when they blocked the move of Boeing to build a plant in South Carolina.

[Bill McCormick]

Fallujah falls. Hillary's legacy continues. The withdrawal of the US from engagement with Al Queda forces wherever they are will likely come back to haunt us and certainly calls into question, like Vietnam, why all those US soldiers died. Now we watch the unprosecuted war in Syria spill into Iraq. Our war on terror has certainly faded in this second term.

[Bill McCormick]

UNFORTUNATELY after viewing the video of the week, Bill, I do not think we will get much help from Hillary's husband by 2017. I have great respect for his intellect but his age/health limits his ability to act as President through his proxy wife. And, after watching her performance as Secretary of State I shudder to think of the impact on our international image and performance with her in charge alone. The new Mayor of New York did not appear much better. Where do we get these politicians?

[Al B]

Hillary faces at least 3 obstacles: #1, Bill Clinton; #2, no notable achievements as Senator or Secretary of State; and #3, potential unraveling of political appetite for the Progressive agenda if public support for the Affordable Health Care Act continues to decline.

The Progressive constituency probably will be happy to look at 2014 in the rear view mirror. A lot of the 2014 potential problems with Health Care have received media attention. Charles Krauthammer recently put a focus on Sections 1341 and 1342 whereby the Administration will bailout the Insurance Industry if the rosy forecasts and predictions (used to sell the Act and set insurance rates)fail to materialize, causing severe losses to the Industry. This problem likely will hit the radar of the House, possibly causing the House to link defunding of those Section with a hike in the debt ceiling. However all these issues play out in 2014, it is more likely than not that the voting public will be more prone to question election of another Progressive President having little hands-on management experience.

Hillary already is seeing defection of some of the Progressive base to Senator Elizabeth Warren. Can Hillary mobilize that base as Obama did? Unless the Republicans do something really dumb during 2014 (as they have in the past), it would seem that the Party could retire Senator Harry from his power position and retain the House, as well as setting up very nicely for the next round. It is not beyond the realm, however, that the Republicans will grab defeat from the jaws of victory. Here in SC, there are 3 opponents already registered to oppose Senator Lindsey Graham on the grounds that "He is not conservative enough". Lets hope that the Republican establishment has learned a lesson from the Delaware primary where the hapless Christine O'Donnell beat former Governor and Congressman Mike Castle, leaving the startled Democratic Party with an opening they capitalized on. Not hard to beat a self-declared Republican Witch in a blue state.