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July 17, 2014

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PUTIN gambles the future of Russia? Or, plays a smoke and mirrors distraction to solidify his land grab. There is no doubt the Russian grab of Crimea is not going to be reversed. No matter what the US will not force Russia to give back Crimea and this presents a problem for the Administration as it appears we are unable to stop Russian aggression. The infiltration of Ukraine by Russian special forces pretending to be Ukrainians sympathetic to alliance with Russia is either a move to keep Ukraine out of the influence of NATO or it is a clever way to get the world focus off Crimea. In the end game Putin pulls out of Ukraine in return for an acceptance of his grab of Crimea. In actuality the world shrugged it off a few days after it happened. Some renegade commander likely put Putin in a very tough spot: dealing with the downing of a civilian airliner. Now the sanctions will become real and Putin will have to decide how to get out of the squeeze. It is true that EU needs the oil/natural gas but Russia may need the revenues more. So, EU has taken a tougher stance. It probably wasn't good for Russia that there were German's on that plane. Merkel was pretty strong this morning. Perhaps the Saudi's have pledged to make up the loss of oil. In the end Putin faces great loss of commerce with EU so he will likely put on his peacemaking hat and calm things down. But, in the end Crimea remains far from the news headlines and firmly in the Russian boundaries.

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