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September 25, 2014

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WHERE HAS THE ELECTION GONE? By this time in 2010 before the midterms we had endured at least 10 months of bitter anti Obamacare, anti socialism and anti debt ceiling busting by the Republicans in dramatic ads, interviews and demonstrations by Tea party members. On the other side we had Democrats celebrating their rescue of the country from Bush wars and Bush economic failure. President was giving speeches everywhere. With basically 5 weeks to go before the elections I see no campaigns, no street signs, no demonstrations, and the President very quiet only pausing to campaign during his UN speeches and comments on race issues in Ferguson. Do we have some sort of peace agreement going on between Republicans and Democrats while the President goes to war? Or, are the strategies for both sides not to wake up the other side hoping to win in a low turnout election?

Republican leadership can look at polls and decide that they have a good chance of capturing the Senate if only they can count on their side turning out and the unhappy left to stay home. But, will the Republican base come out if no one reminds them how unhappy they are? Or is the leadership afraid to awaken the President's base? Or to turn off the Tea Party members with their ideas on compromise? Perhaps they think that world events are simply making the case for them that an amateur in the White House has proven costly overseas and at home? In any case this is a dangerous strategy as Eric Cantor found out. Counting on a unmotivated base to out vote a larger unmotivated base rarely works.

As I write this the President has showed up in the Midwest to make the case for his economic resurgence of America. If there is a case it is that he did not block the energy development on private lands. Other than that he and his team did everything they could to deter economic resurgence. So perhaps the waiting game is over. Economic indicators have started to disappoint once again and there is still a lowering of earnings for working Americans.

THE NEXT BIG STEP is on the horizon. While we currently watch the ISIS and Al Queda terror organizations spread quietly throughout the world the next big movement is on the horizon. In a world where Putin tries to take us back to the cold war and Muslim terrorists position themselves for not only horrendous acts of violence but political overthrows as well, the students of Hong Kong give us a look at the next likely world worry: political change in China. The administration sheepishly called for restraint against the protestors but if history is any teacher we cannot trust foreign governments to care how we feel when confronted with overthrow. China is beginning to look very similar to the USSR 30 years ago. Over built. A rising middle class. A major move toward urbanization. Way too much wealth in the hands of the communist billionaires. And, knee jerk reaction to try to stave off the rise of democracy on the national day of communist celebration. It will come as it has in the Arab spring and with it will perhaps come a change in the world's economic system. Already India, Indonesia, Vietnam and others are becoming the new favored labor markets. This time the government may contain the unrest to the British made city. But, the future is coming in the years ahead. The internet, the I-phones, e commerce, international investments by rich Chinese, international travel into and out of China will lead to freedom and ultimately more protests. Can the US leadership handle any of this? Stay tuned.

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