Right in San Francisco

Secretary Hagel's Sacking: Two Views

    Monday, November 24, was a momentous day. Judging from CNN and Fox News the decision to not prosecute Officer Wilson in Ferguson was the only thing that happened that day. In Boston, it was the signing of free agents Hanley Ramirez and Pablo Sandoval to long term Red Sox contracts. Viewed from Moscow or the Islamic State, the big news was the forced resignation of Chuck Hagel as Secretary of Defense.

    I. Excerpts from the KGB report to Vladimir Putin:

    - Chuck Hagel

        -- President Obama's third Secretary of Defense - Robert Gates (2006-2011; a heavyweight); Leon Paneta (February 2011 - February 2013; career politician; short stint at the CIA); Chuck Hagel (February 2013 - November 2014; a lightweight).

        -- Decorated enlisted Vietnam War veteran; successful businessman; Republican Senator from Nebraska. Served on Senate Foreign Relations Committee with Senators Obama, Biden.

        -- Early supporter of President Obama's desire to exit Iraq and Afghanistan. Accepted role to downsize the military (equipment cancellations, reduction of officer ranks), implement social policies among the troops (gender equality; gay/lesbian rights), and expand green energy use.

        -- Overruled by White House at last minute on plan to bomb Syria for chemical weapons viloations; upset with White House for not supporting Ukrainian government; sought a strong response to ISIS; sought clarity about policy in Syria.

          -- No friend of Russia - good riddance.

    -  The Replacement

        -- Leading candidates rejecting the position. Former Defense policy leader Michele Flournoy; Senator Jack Reed. All authority rests in Obama's inner circle; little chance to change failing policies; requirement for Senate confirmation and twilight of presidency preclude a candidate of import.

    - The National Security Team

        -- Dominated by Susan Rice as gatekeeper for President Obama. Rewarded with position as National Security advisor for lead role in lying about the attack at Benghazi in 2012. Little strategic vision. Loyal. Loyal. Loyal.

            * Subordinate Ben Rhodes - top deputy and speechwriter for Obama since 2007. No real experience.

            * Subordinate Tony Blinken - top deputy; background as political operative. No real experience. Nominated to become Deputy Secretary of State over choice of Secretary Kerry.

        -- Second in import is Denis McDonough, Obama's Chief of Staff.  Background as legislative staff member; some foreign policy education, but no real world experience. Sees everything in domestic political terms - as does Obama.

        --  Gen Martin Dempsey, Chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff since October 2011. Supports women in combat roles; elimination of anti-Islamic content in training. Advocate for allowing limited "boots on the ground" to combat ISIS. Tolerated - at least for now - for occasionally expressing views of professionals.

        -- Director of National Intelligence James Clapper and CIA Director John Brennan. Both tough and experienced. Safe as long as they stay away from policy.

        --  John Kerry - Secretary of State; former presidential candidate; former chair of Senate Foreign Relations Committee. Formidable, but consigned to failed Iran negotiations.

        -- Joe Biden - Vice President. Buffoon.

    Conclusion - Russia is marginally better off without Hegel, one of few in the Obama administration who understood or cared about Russian objectives.  Sacking is statement to others that strategic clarity is not wanted. The Russian door remains open.

    II. Excerpts from the report to Abu Bakr al Baghdadi of ISIS:

    O glorious caliph, behold the news. Confusion and fear have consumed the military leader of the Great Satan. One powerless eunoch is to be replaced by another more powerless. Victory will soon be ours.  

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    The one Thanksgiving You Tube video with troops abroad comes from Germany. Nothing from the front lines - a comment in itself about the country's priorities in 2014.  

bill bowen - 11/28/14  

    

 

The Party of the Future

    Some of the Democrats greatest presidential victories have come with young, vigorous candidates reflecting a generational change in national political leadership:Jack Kennedy following Dwight Eisenhower; Bill Clinton becoming the first Baby Boomer president; Barack Obama beating John McCain in 2008. A Hillary Clinton candidacy would promise to continue the Democratic politics of demographics - African Americans, Hispanics, women - but it would offer a golden opportunity for the right Republican candidate to strip away the other leg of the Obama coalition - the youth vote - by campaigning as the party of the future. Let's reflect on the opportunity.

    In November 2016 Hillary Clinton will be 69 years old. The first reaction is to think of her health and endurance through a grueling campaign - even if there is no real primary challenge. Health issues prevented her from testifying about Benghazi - well, maybe that was a sham. Even with chartered jets, five star hotels, a large travelling staff, and a protective media, it will be hard to avoid looking tired and making irritated comments like her famous "what difference does it make" about Benghazi.

    More important is the generational disconnect. She was conspiring with Saul Alinsky, running her Whitewater scam, and tolerating Jennifer Flowers before most of the Millenials were born. Devoid of any accomplishments as Secretary of State or Senator from New York, her supporters trumpet her broad experience - a vague reference to her having been First Lady 20 years ago. Somewhere in the Republican opposition research and messaging machine there have to be videos from the 60s and 70s of Bill and Hillary in their bell bottoms and spandex cavorting with a crowd of Vietnam War protesters before Al Gore invented the Internet - three political generations ago.

    In a stroke of good luck the Democrats have decided to keep the leadership which has taken them to multi-decade lows in the House, the Senate, governorships, and state legislatures. Beyond the political and managerial issues are the optics for the Party - Nancy Pelosi and Harry Reid are 74. Out here on the Left Coast, the last Democratic Party bastion,  Jerry Brown is 76, Diane Feinstein is 81, and Barbara Boxer is 74. There is virtually nobody in this Democratic leadership who can identify with the aspirations of the Millenials.

    So, what threads can the Republicans weave together to identify themselves as the Party of the Future?

    1. The Republican candidate should trumpet a rebirth of economic vibrancy after an administration which does not understand what drives the American economy. The Keystone XL Pipeline serves as a symbol of commitment to energy indepencence for North America. Corporate tax reform can reaffirm faith in the entrepreneural spirit and acumen of American business. The healthcare industry can be saved from the suffocating taxes and regulations of Obamacare. One would expect that the prospect of a career and a path out of Mom and Dad's basement would be rewarded at the ballot box.

    2. Rand Paul is onto something with liberty, enjoying disproportionate support of young voters. Recent polls show that Americans are more concerned about the oppression of big government than that of big business or big unions. One dimension is the growth of Washington's reach in healthcare, the EPA, and education. Another is the conflict - heightened by Edward Snowden's revelations - about the intersection of privacy and security from terrorism in an era of social media, communications surveillance, and big data. A candidate who can speak about liberty in a future America will have much relevance.

    3. Threading the needle on immigration requires a vision of a future multi-ethnic America with common values. For Millenials, Republicans cannot be the party seeking to preserve an Ozzie and Harriet world of the 1950's, but there is a great opportunity for a Republican candidate to highlight the  enduring values that define the United States of America and make it exceptional. After eight years of Barack Obama this will resonate if done sincerely.

    4. Restoration of America's leadership role in the world of the 21st Century is an easy differentiator. As Secretary of State, Hillary was the primary agent of Barack Obama's failed drive to reduce both the capability and the will of the United States to lead as China emerges, Russia tries to reestablish its empire, and the Middle East disintegrates. Republicans offer a better future.

    Back in the days of the Free Speech Movement Mario Savio exhorted Hillary's contemporaries to not trust anyone over 30. Today's Republicans would be wise to make 60 the new 30.

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   This week's video is my Congresswoman's concession speech after the Democrats' drubbing in the November elections. With due apologies to my good friend John Dennis, the Republican candidate in San Francisco, long may she reign as minority leader.

bill bowen - 11/21/14    

     

            

Midwest Governors: Checking the Boxes

    The successful 2016 Republican presidential candidate will need a combination of personality, philosophy, and experience. On the first score there is a lot to be said for freshness - provided the candidate can withstand the army of "opposition researchers" fanning out after the 2014 midterm elections, with both Democrats and Republicans trying to get the dirt on the many who want to be on the debate stage. On philosophy, all will be within a fairly narrow band of conservatism. After the disasterous Obama presidency and with 31 Republican governors extolling the virtues of the statehouse experience, the burden of proof will be on those who have not hired and fired, balanced budgets, made principled compromises, and dealt with crises large and small.

    Within the governor constellation, geography plays a role in terms of the culture of the electorate and the perception of that culture outside of its region. The south - too conservative; inadequate appeal in purple states. The northeast - too liberal; will not generate adequate enthusiasm with the Party's base. The west - no Republicans in consequential states. The midwest - ah, there's the trove; focused on fixing the problems of Rust Belt economies; bland enough to not offend Hollywood or Tupolo. Let's look at the leading prospects:

    1.  Scott Walker (Wisconsin)

        - Age 47; white; male. Dropped out of Marquette University; father a Baptist minister; Harley rider (the Harley-Davidson HQ is in Milwaukee.)

        - Former state assembly member, county executive of Milwaukee County; elected governor in 2010; survived recall attempt in 2012; reelected in 2014.

        - Reduced biennial budget by $1 billion; reduced Medicaid spending; cut public employee bargaining rights; increased contributions to pensions and healthcare; changed teacher tenure laws. Can claim balanced state and local budgets, reduced local taxes.  Employment has grown by 100,000 since trough, but lagged Midwest.

        - Reliably conservative positions on taxes, right to life, gay marriage, high speed rail, public employee pensions, voter ID, healthcare, education.  A relatively blank slate on foreign policy, civil liberties, energy, and immigration.

        - Top target of organized labor - perhaps a factor if running against Hilary, a "labor Democrat".  Fully vetted in 2012. Should sell well in the South.

    2. John Kasich (Ohio)

        - Age 62; white; male. Graduate of Ohio State; divorced and remarried.

        - Congressman from Columbus from 1983 to 2001; Chairman of the House Budget Committee in Gingrich/Clinton years; fringe potential presidential candidate in 1990s; Fox News personality; banker with Lehman Brothers; first elected governor in 2010; reelected easily in 2014.

        - Repealed estate tax; cut small business taxes; championed restrictions on collective bargaining which were overturned in a referendum; accepted federal Medicaid increase; opposed high speed rail; increased school funding; reduced unemployment below 6.5%.

        - Reliably conservative positions on right to life, gay marriage. A relatively blank slate on foreign policy, civil liberties, energy, and immigration.

        - Initial cabinet of 22 had no minorities. Challenged unions and lost referendum 60% to 40%.

   3. Rick Snyder (Michigan)

        - Age 56; white; male. BS, MBA, JD from the University of Michigan; CPA.

        - Businessman - Coopers & Lybrand Accounting; Chair of Gateway Computer; partner in venture capital firms. First elected governor in 2010 (supported by Bill Ford); reelected in 2014.

        - Reduced first budget by $1.8 billion; restructured complex cororate tax code to a flat tax on C Corporations; supported controversial transportation connection to Ontario; supported authority of cities to take extraordinary measures to restructure finances; passed "Right to Work" legislation; travelled to Afghanistan to support troops; trade missions to Europe, Asia, and Israel to promote business and educational connections. Instrumental in efforts to help Detroit through bankruptcy.

        - Reliably conservative positions on right to life, gay marriage. Relatively international for a governor.

        - Quintessential "businessman turned governor" candidate.

    4. Mike Pence (Indiana)

        - Age 59; white; male. Graduate of Hanover College and Indiana University Law School. Evangelical Christan.

        - First elected to Congress from eastern Indiana in 2000. Leadership position in Republican House caucus from 2006 to 2012 - top initial competitor to John Boehner for party leader; leading advocate for Israel, opposition of earmarks, opposition to gay marriage, a constitutional amendment to limit government spending, "no amnesty" immigration reform, and support for George W Bush's Iraq War policies.

        - Elected governor in 2012, following Republican Mitch Daniels who was term-limited. Signed substantial cuts to business taxes; increased school choice, and increased transportation infrastructure spending.

        - More than reliably conservative on social, tax, spendng, and foreign policy issues.

        - An attractive candidate for Southerners who seek a Northern face.

    5. Bruce Rauner (Illinois)

        - Age 57; white; male. Dartmouth undergrad; Harvard MBA.

        - 30 year career with CTGR private equity firm where he was chairman. Active in Chicago community groups, particularly in education.

        - Announced candidacy for govennor in March 2013; partly self-funded; elected in November 2014.

        - Priorities include education system improvement, cutting taxes, and pension reform.

        - Has been an advisor to mayor Rahm Emanuel, and comes from outside the partisan political world. Time will tell how well he adapts. Perhaps a 2020 player if he succeeds.

    And while we are at it, let's think for a second about why the Midwest, most of which voted for Barack Obama, have elected Republican governors. In the former Rust Belt, jobs really are the issue. Perhaps on the coasts the Democrats can rouse a coalition of young women, minorities, and wealthy donors with social and environmental issues. Not in the Midwest - at least in terms of the elected officials who are making the decisions which have direct impact on the lives of the voters. If the 2016 election is to be about pragmatic substance, the Republicans would be well served by a Midwest governor.

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   This week's video is of ObamaCare architect Jonathan Gruber's cynical explanation of why the stupid American public got snookered.

bill bowen - 11/13/14 

                                                                    

Election 2014: A Wave or a Rising Tide?

    It is hard to find anyone outside of the White House or the New Republic who denies that President Obama and the Democrats took a thumping on November 4. A likely Senate pick-up of nine seats; the greatest Republican House majority since Herbert Hoover; three more governorships in Blue states; fully two thirds of the state legislative chambers - a wave by any standard.  The question is whether it is more than that - a rising Republican tide which will last for awhile. It is easy to think so.

    Much more will be written about how the incompetence of the Obama administration has scarred the reputation of "big government" - the Obamacare rollout; Snowden's NSA; the Veterans Administration; the events leading to ISIS; the Ukraine; the open southern border; even the inability of the Secret Service to protect the president. Some of these have an ideological underlay, but the average voter has come to the conclusion that government is trying to do more than it is capable of. Each issue stands on its own, but the collective impact on the public mirrors President Reagan's observation that "government cannot solve the problem; government is the problem."  For the middle ground voters, it is not just about what it would be nice to do, it is about what the government is capable of doing. That bodes well for Republicans.

    The Republican National Committee seems to have gotten its act together under Chairman Reince Priebus. During his prior stint in Wisconsin he shepherded the normally Democratic state to a Republican goveror, a Republican Assembly and Senate, a majority Republican congressional delegation, and a Republican US Senator. Arriving at the RNC in 2011, he was unable to save the 2012 presidential election, but he was a good listener and has done much to restore confidence among the donor base. In this cycle, the RNC (the "Washington establishment" ) did great opposition research to support defeat of problematic candidates in the primaries, and to highlight Democratic shortcomings in November.  The cavalry was sent to rescue Pat Roberts in Kansas. Contributions by outside PACs were targeted - within the campaign finance laws, of course - to provide timely support to Senate and governor candidates. Where the Obama machine's superior GOTV capability helped win the 2012 election, this time Republicans did a superior job of turning out voters in greater numbers than predicted by the polls.

    Perhaps the largest lasting advantage is the bench that the Republicans are building. With the majority of state legislators, some 30 governors, and 70 more Congress members, there are just many more future leaders to choose from. Want a Midwest governor to run for President - there are five to choose from.  Want a state Senator or a Congress member to run for a Senate seat - there is a Joni Ernst or a Cory Gardner available. While the number of Republican presidential aspirants will require some winnowing, it is far better than having only one realistic competitor who got her start in politics with Saul Alinsky in the 60s.  

    Finally, Republicans have a structural advantage in the way that our leaders are elected. 

        - Democrats explain the Republican dominance in the House as the result of gerrymandering when district boundaries were drawn after the 2010 census and Republicans controlled a disproportionate number of redistricting commissions as a result of the 2010 wave election. That may account for a dozen or two of the new 70 seat majority. A much bigger  structural problem for the Democrats is that their voters are highly concentrated in big cities. The general guideline for drawing district lines is to not divide communities of interest - thus from a partisan electoral perspective at a Congressional level, the areas of New York City, Philadelphia, Chicago, and Los Angeles that vote 90+% Democrat are wasted while the suburban or rural areas that vote 55% Republican are much more vote cost effective. Most concede Republican House dominance through at least 2020; even then, it will take much reverse gerrymandering or a massive shift in public attitudes to deliver a Democratic House.

        - Each state gets two senators, and the District of Columbia none. Because there are more heavily populated Blue states (California, New York, Illinois, Michigan) and more rural thinly populated Red states (mountain states; plains states; Southern states) there are slightly more Red states than Blue states even though there are narrowly more Democrats than Republicans. Everything being equal, the Senate should be Republican by a couple of states. In 2016 the Republicans need to defend 24 seats while the Democrats need to defend 10 - largely as a result of the 2010 Tea Party landslide. Starting with 54 will be much better than 51, but it will be a challenge.  

       - The Republican advantage is greatly diminished in presidential elections where electoral college votes are allocated to the states with one for each Representative and Senator. Still, since there are more Red states than Blue states the Senator component of the equation favors Republicans. Democrats would like direct election without the electoral college, not because of the clunkiness of the process or the risk of a rogue elector, but because it gives Republicans a small advantage.

    Maybe this is too optimistic. It is true that the mid-term elections draw an older,  more conservative electorate. Maybe Hillary will turn out to be a great campaigner with a great message. Maybe the Republicans will find a way to self-destruct. But in this lovely week in November 2014, it is more than reasonable for Republicans to celebrate success and to believe that the door is open to the party of liberty, opportunity, and self-reliance to secure ascendency for a long time.

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bill bowen - 11/6/14