The successful 2016 Republican presidential candidate will need a combination of personality, philosophy, and experience. On the first score there is a lot to be said for freshness - provided the candidate can withstand the army of "opposition researchers" fanning out after the 2014 midterm elections, with both Democrats and Republicans trying to get the dirt on the many who want to be on the debate stage. On philosophy, all will be within a fairly narrow band of conservatism. After the disasterous Obama presidency and with 31 Republican governors extolling the virtues of the statehouse experience, the burden of proof will be on those who have not hired and fired, balanced budgets, made principled compromises, and dealt with crises large and small.
Within the governor constellation, geography plays a role in terms of the culture of the electorate and the perception of that culture outside of its region. The south - too conservative; inadequate appeal in purple states. The northeast - too liberal; will not generate adequate enthusiasm with the Party's base. The west - no Republicans in consequential states. The midwest - ah, there's the trove; focused on fixing the problems of Rust Belt economies; bland enough to not offend Hollywood or Tupolo. Let's look at the leading prospects:
1. Scott Walker (Wisconsin)
- Age 47; white; male. Dropped out of Marquette University; father a Baptist minister; Harley rider (the Harley-Davidson HQ is in Milwaukee.)
- Former state assembly member, county executive of Milwaukee County; elected governor in 2010; survived recall attempt in 2012; reelected in 2014.
- Reduced biennial budget by $1 billion; reduced Medicaid spending; cut public employee bargaining rights; increased contributions to pensions and healthcare; changed teacher tenure laws. Can claim balanced state and local budgets, reduced local taxes. Employment has grown by 100,000 since trough, but lagged Midwest.
- Reliably conservative positions on taxes, right to life, gay marriage, high speed rail, public employee pensions, voter ID, healthcare, education. A relatively blank slate on foreign policy, civil liberties, energy, and immigration.
- Top target of organized labor - perhaps a factor if running against Hilary, a "labor Democrat". Fully vetted in 2012. Should sell well in the South.
2. John Kasich (Ohio)
- Age 62; white; male. Graduate of Ohio State; divorced and remarried.
- Congressman from Columbus from 1983 to 2001; Chairman of the House Budget Committee in Gingrich/Clinton years; fringe potential presidential candidate in 1990s; Fox News personality; banker with Lehman Brothers; first elected governor in 2010; reelected easily in 2014.
- Repealed estate tax; cut small business taxes; championed restrictions on collective bargaining which were overturned in a referendum; accepted federal Medicaid increase; opposed high speed rail; increased school funding; reduced unemployment below 6.5%.
- Reliably conservative positions on right to life, gay marriage. A relatively blank slate on foreign policy, civil liberties, energy, and immigration.
- Initial cabinet of 22 had no minorities. Challenged unions and lost referendum 60% to 40%.
3. Rick Snyder (Michigan)
- Age 56; white; male. BS, MBA, JD from the University of Michigan; CPA.
- Businessman - Coopers & Lybrand Accounting; Chair of Gateway Computer; partner in venture capital firms. First elected governor in 2010 (supported by Bill Ford); reelected in 2014.
- Reduced first budget by $1.8 billion; restructured complex cororate tax code to a flat tax on C Corporations; supported controversial transportation connection to Ontario; supported authority of cities to take extraordinary measures to restructure finances; passed "Right to Work" legislation; travelled to Afghanistan to support troops; trade missions to Europe, Asia, and Israel to promote business and educational connections. Instrumental in efforts to help Detroit through bankruptcy.
- Reliably conservative positions on right to life, gay marriage. Relatively international for a governor.
- Quintessential "businessman turned governor" candidate.
4. Mike Pence (Indiana)
- Age 59; white; male. Graduate of Hanover College and Indiana University Law School. Evangelical Christan.
- First elected to Congress from eastern Indiana in 2000. Leadership position in Republican House caucus from 2006 to 2012 - top initial competitor to John Boehner for party leader; leading advocate for Israel, opposition of earmarks, opposition to gay marriage, a constitutional amendment to limit government spending, "no amnesty" immigration reform, and support for George W Bush's Iraq War policies.
- Elected governor in 2012, following Republican Mitch Daniels who was term-limited. Signed substantial cuts to business taxes; increased school choice, and increased transportation infrastructure spending.
- More than reliably conservative on social, tax, spendng, and foreign policy issues.
- An attractive candidate for Southerners who seek a Northern face.
5. Bruce Rauner (Illinois)
- Age 57; white; male. Dartmouth undergrad; Harvard MBA.
- 30 year career with CTGR private equity firm where he was chairman. Active in Chicago community groups, particularly in education.
- Announced candidacy for govennor in March 2013; partly self-funded; elected in November 2014.
- Priorities include education system improvement, cutting taxes, and pension reform.
- Has been an advisor to mayor Rahm Emanuel, and comes from outside the partisan political world. Time will tell how well he adapts. Perhaps a 2020 player if he succeeds.
And while we are at it, let's think for a second about why the Midwest, most of which voted for Barack Obama, have elected Republican governors. In the former Rust Belt, jobs really are the issue. Perhaps on the coasts the Democrats can rouse a coalition of young women, minorities, and wealthy donors with social and environmental issues. Not in the Midwest - at least in terms of the elected officials who are making the decisions which have direct impact on the lives of the voters. If the 2016 election is to be about pragmatic substance, the Republicans would be well served by a Midwest governor.
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This week's video is of ObamaCare architect Jonathan Gruber's cynical explanation of why the stupid American public got snookered.
bill bowen - 11/13/14
STRIKE ONE--Democrats had a chance to get credit for an easy one in Keystone and whiffed. The public wants Keystone. It adds 1000 miles of pipeline to the already millions of miles of pipeline in America to basically pass through Canadian oil to the world and reduces the amount of oil traveling out of North Dakota on rails (Buffet's rails)to US refineries. The Democrats rebuffed 14 of their own party. This likely points out the Democrats and President's last 2 year problem: 6 to 10 of these Democrats are likely to join the new 54 Republicans on key issues to kill filibusters and force the President to use the Veto pen over and over again to defend his policies. Especially those the people believe will bring new jobs and tax relief. Stay tuned tomorrow for STRIKE TWO: Immigration by Executive Order. 60% or more of whites are opposed and even Mexicans are split on the policy as the President sees it. Of course for Republicans THREE STRIKES does not mean you are out. But, if the Republicans don't fall for the "let's anger them into shutting down the Government again" trick then Republicans can actually have a chance in 2016 by focusing on the policies that create jobs, reforming the Affordable Care Act and rationally address foreign policy issues such as Cyber Security. 66% of Americans do not like Obama care but 70% of Americans believe that long term healthcare reform will work.
On an aside Senator Mary Landrieu was thrown to the wolves presumed lost when not one Democratic Senator would change their vote to give her support in her runoff election.
Posted by: Bill McCormick | November 19, 2014 at 03:22 PM
Nice read on this set of work horses. These guys "get it" at least Wisconsin, Indiana, Michigan and Ohio do. They take on the obstructionists to their policies and they implement changes necessary to make progress. They don't win them all but they don't spend time moping either. On the other hand is that what the President does? Or is supposed to do? They all look like great Chief of Staffs or perhaps Vice Presidents. But, for me, we need a leader who will go to the people and get some progress on the hill. Get Congress focused on some programs to move the economy. It's not the same as stealing a few companies from New York or California to gain jobs. It's about getting capital out of the banks and into the economy where small businesses can get access to it to grow. It's about corporate tax reform and getting capital back in the US to create growth on this side of the Atlantic and Pacific. It's not about public union busting. It's about entitlement reform. It's about reorganizing the Federal government to address the issues facing the country on energy, infrastructure, healthcare reform and immigration reform and enforcement policy. And, finding common ground to get the funding needed to do it. Then, it is about regaining our ability to lead our allies in an all out assault on our enemies in Terror, the "new" Putin led Cold War, Cyber security and invasion by immigration. It requires a [person who will reform the national education system to get equal time for trade school education with universities and stop funding the incredible rise in tuitions forcing them reform to create programs in IT, maintenance and healthcare services to meet the unfilled needs of today's labor force.
I'm not sure where the Republicans will find such a person but they better find one soon Romney, Jeb Bush, Mario (maybe)--are possibilities but all have flaws. Kasich probably best of the above but somehow I can't see him giving the acceptance speech. It can't be Paul or Ryan or Cruz. So, who? My early guess: Jeb Bush or Mitt Romney.
Posted by: Bill McCormick | November 17, 2014 at 03:45 PM
So, Jonathan Gruber boasts not once, but serially, that he jiggered up Obamacare so that it would fool the Government Accounting Office and the stupid American people. Nancy Pelosi said that Congress had to pass the Act to find out what was in it, and now claims that she has never heard the name "Jonathan Gruber". All directly out of the Progressive playbook authored by Saul Alinsky---Lying, cheating,etc, is permissible to achieve the Progressive's view of what is in the Greater Good.
Would you buy a used car from this crowd? Shame on the Republican Party and Main Stream Media if they categorically swallow the "stories" from this Administration and Pelosi/Reid during the next 2 years.
Al B.
Posted by: Al B | November 15, 2014 at 03:33 PM