This State of the Union address was the last time anybody will be listening to this century's most gifted political speaker. Next year all of the Democrats will be fawning around Hillary (or whoever) and all of the Republicans will be looking for talking points for their presidential debates. President Obama's ideology is too far left for the majority of the country, his executive skills and interest are deplorable, and he has made few allies among domestic or foreign leaders ... but he has been masterful in convincing people of good will that his intentions are right and his promises are achievable. So, what did he choose for themes in his last real time on the stage?
1. Washington needs to work together and get beyond petty politics to solving real problems. "Will we allow ourselves to be sorted into factions and turned against one another — or will we recapture the sense of common purpose that has always propelled America forward?"
Never mind the fact that the essence of the speech was laying down markers that he knew had no chance of getting through an energized Republican Congress which is focused on job creation - a $320 billion tax increase; free community college educations for all; guaranteed paid sick leave; enhanced child care subsidies; an increased minimum wage. At the same time, he threatened to veto any changes to Obamacare, the Dodd-Frank financial measures, his immigration amnesty, the Keystone XL pipeline, or sanctions on Iran.
So much for cooperation. The hypocricy is evident to anybody outside of the lunatic Left fringe. Hopefully the Republicans will send him bill after bill which have the support of the majority of voters and let him show where gridlock begins. And let the Democratic presidential nominee in 2016 explain whether their president or the public is wrong.
2. The recession is over. "The shadow of crisis has passed, and the State of the Union is strong. At this moment — with a growing economy, shrinking deficits, bustling industry, and booming energy production — we have risen from recession freer to write our own future than any other nation on Earth.
It would apparently have been against the grain to mimic the recent Democratic theme of income inequality - that while the rich are getting richer, average after tax family incomes are down about 6% during the "Obama recovery". Certainly it would have been poor form to note that the real unemployment rate - including those who have dropped out or are working part time - is twice the publicized 6.2% rate, which is itself above the long term average. Leave it to others to explain why he will veto legislation to restore the definition of the "work week" to 40 hours from its artificial and disruptive 30 hours for purposes of Obamacare mandates.
3. America is providing effective global security leadership. "I believe in a smarter kind of American leadership. We lead best when we combine military power with strong diplomacy; when we leverage our power with coalition building; when we don’t let our fears blind us to the opportunities that this new century presents. That’s exactly what we’re doing right now — and around the globe, it is making a difference."
Perhaps the President is not aware that ISIS continues to gain strength in Syria in the face of our muddled policies, that the pro-West government of Yemen is on the ropes, that Russia and Iran are formalizing an alliance against our interests, that Putin is starting to make noise about protecting ethnic Russians in Estonia, and that Boko Haram is killing thousands in west Africa. There was, of course, no mention of radical Islamic terrorists.
In fairness, there were a few pearls:
- A request for legislative authority to use force against ISIS - late, but constitutionally appropriate;
- A push for cybersecurity legislation - a subject where security hawks, business interests, and civil libertarians need to thread the needle. He's got the concept, but won't offer specific language.
- A push for "fast track" agreements designed to accelerate trade growth with the 12-nation Trans-Pacific Partnership - previously blocked by Harry Reid and the labor wing of the Democratic Party.
All-in-all, President Obama chose to make his last significant speech an expression of his ideology with no reflection of the thumping that his party took in November, no realism about a world without American leadership, and little apparent understanding of what can be done to help the middle class.
----
This week's video is a Fox News panel discussion about the implications of the State of the Union speech for Hillary Clinton. The page has been turned.
bill bowen - 1/23/15
FED POLICY: On a day when snow has the markets half closed people seem to have awakened to a new view: oops falling oil prices, strong dollar and a stream of wake earnings or worse forward guidance have now inspired the FEDS to issue guidance of their won pushing the day when they MAY increase interest rates out to September of 2015. My goodness, all this money printing around the world now seems to threaten to kill off or slow the INCREDIBLE economic performance of the USA. And, then there is the impact of a political change in one of the smallest countries in the world: GREECE. So, socialists have retaken control of Greece. They want more people to work for the government. Remember nearly 65% of Greek citizens are dependent on the government. Why not 100%? IS low oil going to help or not? Certainly Japan and the EU who import all their oil have to be helped. SO, why do they need to print more money? The US still IMPORTS large quantities of our oil and is rapidly slowing the development of our oil production expansion just as the Saudi's want. Think about it: the US was one of their biggest customers for 60 years. All of a sudden we start to slow purchases in the midst of a huge slowdown of the EU, China and Japanese economies. Russia, Iran, Libya, Venezuela, Mexico and others begin to compete for their other customers. What defense does he Saudi royal family have? $10 oil. And, they have put it to work. In the end around the world there will be some big time pain. There has to be. Most likely in the countries dependent on oil revenues. And, given that Iran and Russia are among them it could get dangerous. Let the US economy cool which the strong dollar is bound to cause and the world has no where to sell their oil or their wares it could be a highly volatile world. I don't think you have to worry about higher interest rates for a long time.
Posted by: Bill McCormick | January 27, 2015 at 12:33 PM
IT's THE ECONOMY STUPID: a very famous statement that begs leaders to focus on the engine that drives all else. First of all whatever has been gained in economic turn around in America was the result of a bold experiment by the US Fed that printed $5 Trillion and bolstered the balance sheet of what we can see are very weak banks working hard to find a way to get a return on capital in a world of declining interest rates and regulations that deter lending to small businesses. For the President to take credit for his Robin Hood policies having a positive economic impact is more of his usual "I" did it all. If all were well and the US consumer-- who by the way works for US small businesses --was buying like hell then these earnings reports from December would not be so bland. The world would be manufacturing products and growing. Large corporations would be expanding everywhere and wages would be going up. Small businesses would be hiring to fulfill orders from the Fortune 1000. Commodity prices world wide would be spiking. Instead the world is searching for a solution and unfortunately the solution they all are after is to print money and devalue their currency believing cheaper products will inspire the American consumer to buy from their country. The American consumer is NOT buying from anyone. They are trying to pay survive. 42% of American's now work on contract and less than 40 hours a week. Millions of Americans are underwater in their mortgages and have no chance to "move up". Millions of illegal immigrants are now legal and can compete for jobs. Retired people are trying to find a 2% return on their investments. On fixed income not much to spend. College grads find few jobs, live with their parents and make payments on college loans. Meanwhile the President thinks we can take on another $300 Billion in tax increases. This week Ebay and American Express led a parade of big companies who continue to financially engineer and announced the lay off of thousands of workers. It's the economy stupid. Soon the devalued currencies overseas will begin to take their toll on the earnings of the BIG companies and these layoffs are the signs of it's impact. Common sense says you cannot solve problems just printing money.
Posted by: Bill McCormick | January 23, 2015 at 12:03 PM