They may not compare to the Lincoln-Douglas debates - I didn't attend and Fox didn't carry them - but the 2016 Republican presidential debates will certainly be remembered as a classic in American political history. Some thoughts:
Republicans have completely captured the political discussion. Past televised presidential debates have drawn an audiences of 5 to 8 million viewers; these have drawn an average of 17.4 million for the Republicans; the Democrats have been about half of that. The swing state of Iowa presented good evidence that the interest can translate into votes - the 2008 caucuses drew 220,000 Democratic voters and 119,000 Republican voters; in 2016 the Democrats were down 50,000 and the Republicans were up 65,000. Similarly in New Hampshire, the Republican turnout was up 18% from 2008 while the Democratic turnout was down 12%. The Democrats, who had originally tried to downplay head-to-head confrontations have decided to add four more of their own.
The surfeit of candidates has actually been a blessing, maintaining viewers for the extended process. The Democrats have Hillary and Bernie - first avoiding any controversy, and then throwing well-worn barbs with little "new news" or suspense. With the Republican "undercard" there has been the ongoing question of who would be thrown off of the island; what would the Donald do if he showed up; would those falling behind in the polls attack strategic opponents; would a gaffe knock out a contender as with Rick Perry in 2012? With Trump blowing away political correctness, tough subjects actually get discussed. It is made for the times - a blend of "Survivor" and "The Apprentice" - and only for one season.
The debates have also been good for serious observers.
- Those who began with a generic preference for governors over senators and amateurs are now getting beyond the polish of the orators. In talking about medical care for veterans, some of the candidates talk about having met wounded warriors at town hall meetings; the governors talk about what they have done in their states to establish meaningful programs. Bush and Christie can talk about their experience with natural disasters. The governors can explain why they accepted or rejected Obama's Medicaid expansion. The discussion gets beyond how much taxes have been lowered and how many jobs were created to examples of what governors actually do.
- After two months the public has become accustomed to seeing two Cubans and an African American doctor argue about things which have little to do with being Cuban or African American. They are just Republicans who have risen to the upper tier of their party. The subtle implication for Mexicans, Guatemalans, Puerto Ricans and African Americans has to change their view of the party. A bit of this happened with Bobby Jindal for awhile; also a bit with Carly Fiorina. On the Republican side young viewers see a range of ages; on the Democratic side they see their grandparents. At the top level, the Republicans are the party of diversity.
- The Democratic meme that the Republicans have no ideas is dead. Everything is on the table, and the nuances of differences are argued in detail. Candidates like Bush and Cruz have detailed proposals for just about everything, and several candidates are learning to give brief answers with referrals to their web sites. Admittedly, the Donald is weak on details, but the winner will have heard every argument battle tested and will know the logical and polling strengths and weaknesses of each.
-- The immigration debate begins with "secure the border" and ends with a path to legal status, with flavors of removal and return.
-- The ISIS argument - one of Hillary's great "experience" exposures - includes a consensus for greater engagement and a stronger military, different views on Saudi Arabia and the Kurds, the limits of air power, and the importance of Sunni allies.
-- Positions on abortion range from the purist "life begins at conception"; to exceptions for rape and incest; to protection in the third trimester; to a unilateral decision by the woman. Handled properly, most Americans would not agree with the extremist "partial birth abortion" position that Planned Parenthood and the Democratic candidate will espouse. The issue will e used or not as the candidate sees best.
-- There is enough discussion of taxes, the Iran nuclear deal, climate change, Obamacare, and any other issue to satisfy the greatest policy wonk. Most try to draw contrasts with Obama and his third term as Hillary; as Bernie Sanders rises and Hillary tacks left, the contrast gets even better.
- Among the most striking results - Ted Cruz was able to win in Iowa after opposing the federal mandate to include ethanol in gasoline. A political profile in courage - at least with staunch, unyielding conservatives.
The Christie - Rubio dust-up about whether President Obama is ideologically misdirected or just incompetent will be remembered for Rubio's robotic repetition of his talking point and it has certainly stopped his path to consolidating the moderate voters. Both are right, but Christie's debating skills are superior and he has the obvious examples of the Veterans Administration, Fast and Furious, the Stimulus Plan, the roll out of Obamacare, Syria, Libya, and on and on. It would have been nice if this had been a theme for more discussions. Some of us think that we are lucky that the ideological Obama was incompetent.
The Donald has certainly tapped into a mood of discontent after seven years of the domestic and international failures of the Obama administration. To the extent that his presence has contributed to the unprecedented opportunity to expose the American public to Republican ideas and the diversity of the party's leadership, Reince Priebus owes him a debt of gratitude. On the other hand, he might not have broken upon the scene if not for the free opportunity to speak directly with millions. Whether we can avoid having him as the spokesman remains to be seen.
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This week we have Chris Christie's last hurrah which ended Marco Rubio's consolidation of the moderate segment of Republican voters.
bill bowen - 2/10/2016
WHAT IS WRONG?
All I have heard for the past few years is that the long running Bull Market was overdue for (and FED protected from) a 10% correction. Now we have one and the world is ending. This is technically a Bull market but in effect all we have done is creep our way back from 15,000 in 2008 to 15,000 in 2016 in the longest, slowest recovery in history.
Virtually everything that has happened in 8 years is that the Fed took the wheel from Congress in 2008 to control the economy through the banking system and money printing. They printed money and put it on the bank balance sheets regulating that they NOT lend it then held interest rates low to keep the incentive low for banks to lend. Community banks that support small businesses disappeared. Congress has sat on their hands while the administration used executive orders to extract fees, fines and taxes from the American economy.
Technology created a new gusher of oil in the US and reversed the OPEC (Saudi) strategy to maintain high prices. For 5 years this US gusher produced the only economic stimulus in the US and 25 states benefited. Then, boom, the Saudi strategy of flooding the world with what is likely to be $20 oil destroyed high debt American oil producers driving rigs down 75%. Even Chevron has cut it's dividend.
Meanwhile Americans bought cars at record rates. Now, the world waits for the oil companies to consolidate or fold. At the same time oil rich countries are on the verge of economic collapse. Yesterday I bought 10 gallons of gas for $13.33. If I had gone inside and bought 10 gallons of water it would have cost me less. So, 25 states are beginning to struggle as the effects of lower spending by oil companies spreads into other industries.
Baby Boomers--the richest segment of the US consumers continue to retire and reduce spending. This is the ACTUAL source and driver of the world's economic struggle. It could continue for 10-20 more years if new industries do not create higher paying jobs for the new generation coming on line.
China is now following in the footsteps of Japan as their wages increase and International companies move jobs to Vietnam, India and Indonesia. Like oil where the profits go to the low cost producer--jobs go to the low cost competent labor. That will be India next. Millions and millions of educated $1/hour people await the jobs and their new Prime Minister get's it.
The US political environment continues to move left. Hillary is having a very difficult time looking "left" enough to fight Bernie. The battle to employ the best "Robin Hood" strategy of robbing the top 1% to feed the bottom 50% while bashing the banks and Wall Street is interesting to watch. After 8 years of Obama's socialist movement we now watch as the Democrats move even further left. The only question left is how far left will the Republicans move? Trump's boasting of taking our jobs back from China and Mexico sells pretty well but is not even remotely possible. There are no $1/hr laborers in the US. In fact the US is considering a $15/hr minimum wage. 15 x the overseas market. Once his real persona shows up Trump will likely look like a slightly conservative Democrat. Cruz on the other hand looks far too right for today's political reality. Within 6 weeks we will likely know if the candidates are going to be Hillary versus Trump or if not we are headed to a really uncertain outcome.
Posted by: Bill McCormick | February 12, 2016 at 09:59 AM