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March 03, 2016

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A PRESIDENT WHO CANNOT understand his opponents. Perhaps today's press conference demonstrated why the President's leadership is totally "My way or the highway", so divisive and so ineffective. I will not redo it herein but rather suggest you find it and watch it if you can tolerate the length of time he goes on and on about his views. Pay particular attention to his polar opposite comments about the debates in the Republican primaries and the debates in the Democratic primaries. And, of course, as always about himself. The Democratic candidates are two caring, well meaning Americans. While the Republican candidates are basically shaded as caring only about themselves and their rich friends.He is clueless that his inability and unwillingness to compromise or even engage his peers in conversation about issues has polarized the nation both politically, financially and ethnically. Trump's comment today that both sides want a tax deal to bring home overseas dollars and he could get that deal in 5 minutes is an example of the President's unwillingness to sit down and work through compromises. He does not want to compromise on any of the easy issues: border security, overseas profits, infrastructure funding, healthcare revisions, social security reform, Keystone pipeline approval, corporate tax changes, bank lending for small businesses, etc. When you are unwilling to compromise there is no need to meet with the other side. And, he doesn't.

WAR Here comes Europe. The currency wars finally got to the strongest country in the world: Germany. Without Germany's permission the EU would not be able to jump in to the currency war. Up goes the dollar. Down go US exports and manufacturing jobs. The EU already has negative interest rates. Now we have EU QE through at least March of 2017. UP goes the US market as people believe that the Fed cannot raise interest rates now. UP goes the US stock market as foreign money flees to US currencies. UP will go the NY city, SF and Miami real estate markets as foreign money looks for safe havens. More deflation for the US economy as the dollar buys more commodities cheaper. Who will fire next? Don't be surprised if it is China. Bernanke started this. Where does it end? Do we print another $5 Trillion? Does this make sense: all you have to do is print money to pay your bills?

THREE OBSERVATIONS:

TRUMP VS GOP I'm not a Trump fan. I am for a bit more polish and a lot more International experience. Romney, Bush and Kasich are my types. But, I suspect I am more like a lot of GOP and Independent voters, in that I am beginning to feel more likely to support Trump every day as the GOP old guard try to deny Trump the nomination he is earning without any of their help. I actually think they are helping him and I think there is a very good chance that they are helping him pick up Independents and Democrats as they put him more and more in the position of the American Favorite: Under Dog.

HILLARY/Sanders. It is unbelievable how two people can actually spend their time trying to show who is more against American business than the other person. Anti Wall Street. Anti Banks. Anti wealthy. And, now wanting to shut down the oil fracking businesses. One of the reasons a guy like Trump can emerge as a popular candidate is the past 8 years of Anti business. People with crappy jobs and no income growth no longer believe that socialism is the new American way. It will bite back.

OIL/COMMODITY RALLY. Don't believe it. This began with Putin and OPEC saying time and again they were going to cut production of oil. They do this to get the price to go up and sell as much as they can. I suspect they also buy options ahead of the announcement. The result is to boost the price of oil and commodities up quickly trapping the short traders in a squeeze which as they cover drives the prices even higher. Perhaps even Cramer is sucked into this one. Oil likely has not bottomed. Every time the price goes up more production will come on line. You think you can trust Putin, Venezuela, Iran, Iraq and even struggling American fracking companies to lower production? Nope. Stay out of those oil and commodities companies. Oil is every where and economic growth is no where.

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