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January 05, 2017


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GETTING THE MESSAGE: Warning shot notification seems to be working as the "Donald" has not enacted one legislative regulation, imposed one tax or issued one Executive Order and already things are changing. Sure you can say it is tokenism when a company reverses course on a small move to Mexico. Or, opens a new factory in the USA to supplement their production overseas. But, then the mighty Apple, who defied the FBI over opening cell phones for terror and murder investigations, quietly files an a;;plication to build a technology plant in the USA. McDonald's and KFC announce they are withdrawing from China. China strengthens it's currency. All great marketing schools teach that one of the first things you look for in business is potential disruptions. Silicon valley lives off the dream of disrupting US markets and companies. Amazon is the retail killer following Sam Walton's model with Walmart stores everywhere. But, the number one potential disrupter of any industry is the Federal Government. Just ask West Virginia's coal industry. Ask the farmers in Northern California who lost there water to save a fish. So it is not just tokenism that you are seeing it is marketing for now--appease the Don with a few plants, a few jobs saved, for now. But, next will come behavioral change. For now it is the response to fear and threats of actions he has not taken. Soon it will be negotiations as American companies look to take advantage of the goodies the Donald promises: deregulation, reduced taxes, a State department that helps them overseas if they help Americans here. Lower taxes and repatriation of overseas profits. Perhaps even lower taxes yet if you build it here and ship it overseas to sell. A partnership between the SBA and your local bank to actually fund America's job machine: small businesses with bank incentives to take a little more risk. So far he is doing what he said he would do. And, CEO's are assessing their strategic alternatives. So are China and Mexico. Likely so are OPEC and Russia. oil is falling again as the Donald readies to open the flood gates of America's oil fields. OPEC can reduce production all they want--the Donald's oil machine can fill the gap and the price will not rise for long. And, of course here comes coal as well. Negotiations begin in ten days. Ready your proposals for consideration. The little guy has someone in Washington who might actually help them.

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