Eventually some Harvard professor or New York Times editorial board member will write the Establishment's definitive book on the unifying principles of the Trump Doctrine for international affairs. They will depart from the current #Resist meme that Trump's foreign policy is just a bunch of impulsive, uninformed decisions born of inexperience and a flawed personality. They most likely will not develop the theme that Barack Obama left a mess after eight years of withdrawing American power. What follows is a first draft - version 1.0.
Premise: Hobbes had it largely right - the world is filled with inequality, injustice, and immoral leaders who will respond only to force. We cannot fix it all, but it is in our self interest to try to fix those things which will affect us. At the low end, that means preventing attacks on us; at the high end it means supporting international organizations and norms which keep us safe. There is plenty of room for international engagement in an America First philosophy.
There are several levels about how international problems should be approached. Each needs to be approached with clear eyes; the accumulating malaise since the current world order was established in the mid- twentieth century needs to be fixed. .
- The concept of the United Nations is fine, but the veto power of Russia, China, the UK, France, and the United States makes it ineffective for most important issues. (Obama's acceptance of the condemnation of Israel was an exception, but demonstrates the point.) The bureaucracy has gotten fat. When there is an urgent issue the Security Council should be given a chance, but with a short fuse before looking for other avenues. Witness the strike in Syria after Russia blocked action condemning Assad's use of chemical weapons.
- Regional alliances are important for containing our major geopolitical rivals - Russia and China - and for combating Islamic terrorism. We provide the dominant amount of money, intelligence, equipment, and leadership for these alliances. In many cases we provide a large part of the manpower. This needs to change - the Europeans need to fund their own defense at agreed levels; the Japanese and other Asian partners need to do more; Saudi Arabia and other Sunni governments need to take the lead in terms of money and troops in combating ISIS, al Queda, and whatever comes next. We will provide active support, as in the current battles in Mosul, Iraq and Raqqa, Syria.
- Spheres of influence are important. The major powers need to patrol their neighborhoods. China needs to take care of North Korea. The Europeans need to stand up to Russia.
- Where others will not act, and our national interests are threatened, we will act. Our national interests include enforcement of international agreements on development and use of weapons of mass destruction - nuclear, chemical, and biological. (The WMD term has been badly overused - the issue is nuclear, chemical, and biological.) Chemical in Syria; nuclear in North Korea.
Within that framework there are a couple of policy adjustments that have not yet received the administration's attention:
1. Afghanistan. By now we have forgotten why we have sacrificed a generation of soldiers and billions of dollars in this landlocked quagmire on the other side of the world, and still have 8400 troops there as the next "fighting season" approaches and the Taliban are expanding their areas of control. Bin Laden was there - and he was killed in Pakistan. They were big opium exporters - and they still are. Their girls were not educated - and now some are. For Obama it was a chance to show that Bush was wrong in Iraq, and he was not a wimp. Our real national interest in South Asia is the protection of the nuclear arms in Pakistan, not choosing among the warlords of this graveyard of empires.
2. Central America. Our illegal immigration problem is partly about economic migrants from Mexico seeking a better life, but it is also about true refugees from decades of civil war, gang warfare, and corruption in Nicaragua, Honduras, and El Salvador. As we deport these immigrants to Mexico, their "country of entry", they really cannot go home. Europe has a problem with at-risk refugees from the Middle East; our comparison is Central America. The root problem needs to be fixed.
Trump has a habit of speaking clearly where our leaders have spoken in muted tones for decades. After the audible gasp, it is useful to note that he is right - Obama did not believe in American world leadership; a huge gap was created; and there will be a time of challenge while Trump reestablishes America's credibility. Fortunately, his actions - from demanding that the Europeans pay their committed share for their defense, to being willing to make trade concessions for Chinese action on North Korea, to punishing Assad for use of chemical weapons - fit a pattern that is part of Making America Great Again.
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This week's video is Charles Krautheimer's commentary on Obama National Security Adviser Susan Rice. To review the bidding: the administration - unsuccessfully except for one occasion - sought wiretapping authority on Trump campaign members to find a Russia connection; they oversaw wiretapping of foreigners who might be talking to Trump campaign members; they exposed the names such as Mike Flynn who turned up; and they changed the rules for distributing intelligence information to ensure that people in 17 agencies had access to the reports which were subsequently leaked to the New York Times and others.
bill bowen - 4/14/17
THE WARNING SHOTS keep coming. This is definitely the warning shot President. His negotiating style is the warning shot early to shock the prey. (and any others in future lines) This is quickly followed by several public shocking warnings that the activity harmful to Uncle Sam is outrageous and must end. After the media frenzy (so quick to believe his tactics are about to become actions) predicts the dire consequences he announces that the prey might be coming around and by the way these are pretty good guys with whom he has a fabulous relationship developing.
President agrees to HC plan of the House. The Right caucus balks. President says this is their only shot take it or he's moving on. It doesn't fly as the conservative caucus refuses to yield. Without a beat the President moves on. Now here comes the new plan.
Syria used the chemicals. He delivered the Tomahawks on a military target. Served as a great warning shot for North Korea with Iran, China and Russia watching. Next he warned North Korea and sent an imaginary or real armada toward them. Deployed defensive missile interceptors in South Korea. All the while telling China that perhaps their relationship with the US is not going to be too good if North Korea doesn't reign in their puppet. Now there is no gas in North Korea. Who turned off that pipeline? Now China might not be a currency manipulator and is a great friend,
Off we go to Wisconsin and find the Canadians have stopped the dairy deals. Boom NAFTA has to go. We will be out in a week. 25% tariff on the soft lumber. Today the good Mexican President and his NAFTA buddy in Canada have called and suggested the US stay and renegotiate NAFTA. The President again reiterates what great partners and friends they are.
Out comes the TAX plan. Warning shot: Big Democratic states losing heavily in state tax deductions. Media going crazy. Wonder what the President might trade out to get the plan passed? Stay tuned.
It is so refreshing to see a positive, Bold person in the White House who actually is out to lead America from strength and cares about the working class and their employers.
Posted by: Bill McCormick | April 27, 2017 at 04:33 PM
MEDIA REPORTS of Trump's motivations and actual initiatives are so calculated to discredit him that it is virtually impossible for those of us who care about what is really good for the country to evaluate his effectiveness yet. I'm afraid we will have to wait out the results of his actions one or two at a time to determine how good he is. One thing appears to be certain: The personality he exhibits publically must be far more concerning than his personality in private actually dealing with issues. The next 3 months should tell us if he can pull the party and Congress together to pass some legislation or if he is going to be another Executive Order President.
Posted by: Bill McCormick | April 19, 2017 at 03:48 PM