Right in San Francisco

The Republican Agenda: A Brief Scorecard

   The Dems and much of the media would convey the image that the White House is in chaos, that the Obamacare fiasco shows that the Republicans cannot pass legislation, and that all will change with the 2018 Congressional elections. Let's take a closer look at what is being done. 

    For his last six years Barack Obama ruled by executive order rather than by compromise and legislation. That has given Trump the opportunity to uniltaterally reverse policies which he didn't like. On the Trans Pacific Partnership trade pact and the Paris Climate Agreement (which should have required Senate ratification as a treaty) Trump has simply reversed Obama's decisions. To his credit, he has also shown a commendable willingness to take a broader view than did candidate Trump, agreeing to marginally expand our presence in Afghanistan, and possibly scrapping  the deportation of young undocumented immigrants.

    As expected with Greg Pruitt leading the EPA and Rick Perry leading the Energy Department, the Keystone XL Pipeline and the Dakota Access Pipeline have been approved, approval has been given for drilling off the Alaska and Atlantic coasts, restrictions on mining and drilling on federal governmnet land are being reduced, an Obama administration directive to greatly increase auto fuel standards will be scaled back, coal is accepable, and numerous regulations on wastwater, emissions, and record keeping are being relaxed. Energy in a cornerstone of Trump's jobs agenda.  

   The department of Labor is rolling back Obama's significant expansion of workers entitled to overtime pay, and a Trump-appointed National Labor Relations Board will likely change rules to make elections to form unions more difficult. Obama-era regulations preventing states from applying drug testing for welfare beneficiaries are being repealed. Reversing an 11th hour Obama regulation, Trump has signed legislation allowing states and localities to deny funding to Planned Parenthood. The Education Department is reversing federal rules on the evaluation of schools and teacher preparation programs, returning that authority to the states. 

    Preparations for the upcoming overhaul of the tax code suggest that some lessons have been learned from the Repeal and Replace healthcare defeat. Top Republican leaders from the White House, the Senate, and the House have been meeting for months to frame legislation to make corporate rates more globally competitive, to repatriate a trillion dollars of American corporate profits currently sequestered overseas, to simplify individual tax returns, and to eliminate many of the more egregious lobbyist-advocated loopholes in the current system. The marketing campaign has begun; A second failure is not an option. 

    Most of this is fairly small stuff, adequate to keep the base happy and to marginally help the economy which has increased its growth rate to 3% after years in the 1 to 2 % range. But, it is worth taking a macro view of the few big things which are really necessary to truly Make America Great Again:

        1. Reestablish our borders for legal, economic, and security reasons. While the Congress has not supported building a wall, many locales have refused to cooperate with immigration authorities, and the courts have temporarily limited the president's power to exclude immigrants from potential terrorist havens, Trump has actually had some success.  "Catch and release" has been ended; illegal immigration on the southwest border is down some 50 %; a zero tolerance policy has been adopted for criminal aliens; and legal immigration is being restructured to prioritize the needs of the country rather than the needs of the immigrants. (B+)

        2. ISIS is being crushed and there is reasonable hope for a Russian - Iranian - American partition agreement to end the Syrian civil war. Enough presence will be retained in Afghanistan to prevent the resurfacing of al Queda and to limit a Taliban threat to the nuclear facilities in Pakistan. (A)

        3. Nuclear proliferation remains a problem.  Bush ended the risk in Iraq. Obama made limited progress with Russia on the number of deployed warheads, and at least delayed the Iranian risk. Nobody has found the key to stopping North Korea, but Trump's rhetoric has probably made success less likely. (C-)

        4. During Trump's first term the federal judiciary will be remade. Neil Gorsuch has nicely replaced Antonin Scalia; a second conservative Supreme Court appointment is likely at some point. Trump and the Senate have been slow with circuit and appeals court judges, but more than 100 "conservative acceptable" judges will be seated in the first Trump term. (B+) 

        5. The unsustainable $500 billion annual trade deficit is the central focus of Trump's foreign policy - renegotiation of  NAFTA;  strong challenges to  China, South Korea, and Germany;  high profile "American jobs"  agreements with Foxconn (a Taiwanese Apple supplier), Carrier air conditioners, Ford, Bayer, Amazon, and many others. (A)

        6. The federal deficit of some $600 billion represents  over 3% of of GDP. Trump laid down a marker witha a FY 2018 budget plan that cuts just about everything except defense; the House Budget Committee has opened their discussion with a similar objective. We can look forward to another civics lesson as Paul Ryan, Mitch McConnell, and the White House maneuver around Senate rules, "reconciliation" requirements, and the bleats of thousands of special interest groups. (B) 

     On policy, an A+ would require a solution on Healthcare, disarming of North Korea, and a real plan to get to balanced budgets (including Social Security and Medicare reform) at some point.  And then there are style points. 

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  This week's video is an extract from President Trump's opening salvo in the campaign to reform the American tax code. 

                                                      

bill bowen - 9/1/17                                                    

Antifa: The PC Stormtroopers

   In a recent discussion about President Trump's condemnation of "violence on many sides"  in Charlottesville, a liberal friend attested that he had never heard of Antifa. Perhaps this is a sign of how narrowly informed we have become in our selection of news sources; perhaps the denial was a debating ploy. Let's be optimists and assume that people of good will on the left, center, and right want to understand what is going on in this period of heightened rhetoric and confrontation. 

    A quick reprise of Charlottesville: a protest led by a local white nationalist about a plan to remove a statue of Robert E. Lee became a magnet for a who's who of the fringe right - David Duke and Richard Spencer, the KKK and neo-Nazis, the League of the South, and a gaggle of hitherto unknown groups with Civil War or German and Norse names and insgnia, many who came armed with shields, helmets, truncheons, and a few firearms. There was an equal group of counter-demonstrators led by traditional church activists, anti-capitalists, and anarchists under the banner of Solidarity Cville. Blending with this group were Black Lives Matter, Red Neck Revolt, and Antifa agitators who came armed and motivated similar to the KKK folks. Importantly, the local and state police did nothing to separate the groups, instead allowing hours of small conflicts and beatings before a KKK-type ran a car into a group of counter-demonstrators marching toward the largely-abandoned park which had been the focal point of the demonstration. 

    KKK bad!  Nazi's bad! Racists bad! Slavery bad! Peaceful demonstrations and counterdemonstration good! Got it - at least 98% of the public does. What is new, and is only starting to get proper attention is what the liberal Atlantic magazine calls "The Rise of the Violent Left" and what the American Conservative calls "Antifa: The Other Evil Political Force."  These are the folks who wear black masks, who come to demonstrations prepared for battle, who view offensive speech as equal to violence, and who proudly announce that they will silence opponents "by any means necessary".  In Charlottesville they found a good foil and a sympathetic media which was focused on criticism of President Trump; in Berkeley, Middlebury, and Portland they preemptively destroyed property and shut down conservative speakers. Since Charlottesville, there is a national agenda on both sides.  

   Unlike past eras, in 2017 we have the Internet where 15,000 agitated souls can sign up for the New York Antifa newsletter, and agitators on both sides can easily move their street theater from coast to coast. With disappointment that the election of a Black president did not bring Nirvana, the state and national success of conservatives, the election of Donald Trump, the absence of Democratic leadership, and an overtly partisan media it is perhaps inevitable that we see a shadow of the 60's when the draft, the Vietnam War, and the assasination of John Kennedy, Bobby Kennedy,and Dr. Martin Luther King put extreme stress on our politidcal system. 

    We've been in far worse situations and survived. The existence of a small number of overt racists and fascists is not a problem. What is concerning is the failure to acknowledge, identify, and condemn the rising tide of authoritarinism on the Left which conflates conservatives with racists, and advocates violence to silence opposing thought. This is perhaps a natural outgrowth of a failed Democratic strategy of division on ethnic and gender lines, but it has reached the boundaries of America's tradition of tolerance and common sense. Violence on the political Left and Right are to be equally condemned - as was clearly indicated by President Trump. . 

What you can do:

    If you are a city official, do not allow the threat of leftist violence  shut down political demonstrations, as in Berkeley or Portland.

    If you are a college administrator, do not let the threat of leftist violence limit the breadth of opinions offered on campus, as in Berkeley and Middlebury. 

    For the rest of us, read or watch something out of your comfort zone, at least to see an articulate presentation of opposing views on important subjects.  Politics should be more than entertainment. For people on the Left I would recommend Steve Bannon's  Breitbart, which is usuallyfalsely  presented as a racist caricature by other media. For people on the Right, I would recommend the New York Times, which has the liberal bias, but without placing the objective of destroying Trump at the center of every article, as do the Washington Post and CNN. 

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    This week's video is a short exchange on sanctuary cities between General John Kelly (then Secretary of Homeland Security) and Senator Kamila Harris (a likely 2020 presidential candidate) which offers an insight to the personality of each. 

bill bowen - 8/25/17

Replacing Obamacare - The Necessary Republican Plan

    Few would deny that the passage and ugly implementation of Obamacare was the signature achievement of Barack Obama and Nancy Pelosi's time in power. Few would also deny that the failure to repeal and replace Obamacare is, thus far, the signature failure of Donald Trump, Mitch McConnell, and Paul Ryan. But that is not the end of the story - nobody except the pharmaceutical companies likes the current set-up with its soaring costs and spotty insurance coverage. Bernie Sanders has started the call for "Medicare for all"; the left wing loons in California are calling for a $400 billion state run program; conservative states which did not accept Medicaid expansion under Obama are left out from the federal trough under Trump; everybody on the Right agreed with the "Repeal" part of "Repeal and Replace." This is not the end of the national discussion.  How and when it resumes is up to the Republican leadership which has great risk, but also great opportunity. 

    The greatest mind-numbing, political malpractice disappointment of a generatioin is that after seven years of complaining and sloganeering, the Republican Congress did not have a replacement ready for a Republican president's signature. Maybe they didn't believe that they would actually have a Republican president. Maybe getting together would have bruised too many egos. Maybe agreeing on general principles and filling in the tactical details was beyond the capabilities of the leaders. Maybe things are more difficult than in the old days when earmarks could be used to buy votes. Maybe Trump is too big a negative. Whatever, that was then. If the Republicans do not present a conservative alternative before the 2020 election, the lure of a simple alternative from the Left will be unstoppable, and the Republicans will have earned their demise. 

    The premise: 

        - In 2018 the Republicans will marginally increase their majority in the Senate under almost any circumstance, with the Democrats defending 23 seats and the Republicans 10. In the House the marginal likelihood of giving up the 24 seats necessary to give the chamber back to Nancy Pelosi would be much less if there were a Republican healthcare plan. 

        - On the substance, it is good that the efforts to slap together a Senate version did not succeed. There is now time to put together a proposition which works, based on conservative principles. 

    The process:

        - Take a deep breath. 

        - Organize a small team of White House, Senate, and House leaders to devise the plan. Draw on the experience of the past six months to define what is possible. Forget the Democrats - unless Joe Manchin or Angus King will change parties.  

        -  Start discussions in the House and Senate from the same simple blueprint.  

        -  Politics is the art of the possible. Forget ideology. Fire McConnell or Ryan if they cannot design a proposal based on conservative principles that can pass their chamber. 

        -  Ideally, have it done by early 2018. If not, use the outline as a campaign theme, implementing in 2019.

        - Hire a good public relations agency.  

    And the content:

        - First, it is important to recognize what is not on the table: we generally do not have state-run hospitals; doctors do not work for the government; individuals can have supplemental insurance plans; we use co-pays and deductibles to minimize frivilous use of the system; we do not have price controls; the government generally does not cover vision, dental, or long term care. (Progressives would love much of this, and inserted many elements in their bill which recently passed the California senate.) 

        - There are several easily-agreed (at least among conservatives) components: allowing insurance companies to sell "bare bones" catastrophic coverage policies; selling insurance across state lines; subsidized high risk pools; greater transparency in hospital pricing; allowing the states to design elements of their own programs as in Medicaid. 

        - Beyond insurance, there are a number of ways to reduce overall costs: constraints on medical malpractice lawsuits; greater use of clinics and nurse practitioners; faster FDA approval of generics; shortened periods for patent protection.

    Things like stock market bubbles that cannot go on forever frequently end badly. But not always - sometimes there are wise and prudent central bankers, legislative leaders, and executives who understand the levers to pull to safely deflate the bubble. That opportunity is at hand for Obamacare. The need to replace Obamacare is understood. The alternatives are known. The politics have been deeply and painfully plumbed. It is not much of a stretch to say that if the Republican leaders cannot present the plan well before the 2018 election, they deserve to be replaced. 

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    This week's video is from President Trump's initial press conference in which he condemned the violence in Charlottsville which erupted when left wing Antifa thugs attacked white nationalists among a crowd protesting the taking down of a statue of Confederate General Robert E. Lee. Despite the president's perfect content and tone, the Left has been able  generate a totally "fake news" narrative. 

bill bowen - 8/18/2017

         

   

 

    

    

Trump's Noteworthy ISIS Victory

      Nearly absent from the pages of the Washington Post and the New York Times - or the Wall Street Journal and Fox News for that matter - is the grinding success against ISIS which has been unfolding across Iraq and Syria. The Never Trumpers will argue that this is just the natural unfolding of the Obama strategy, but this is not the president who announced year-in-advance timelines for withdrawals from Iraq and Afghanistan, who drew a meaningless red line in Syria, who called ISIS the Jayvees, and who refused to acknowledge Islamic terrorism. Substantial differences are responsible for the success: 

       1. Without significantly changing the rules of engagement designed to protect civilians, Trump has empowered the military commanders in the theater to make operational decisions. This has entailed embedding liaison officers with Iraqi and Syrian Kurd forces to coordinate front-line intelligence and call in air strikes. The Americans do not initiatie direct "boots on the ground" combat, but are sometimes engaged. American casualties have been few; the ability to bring air power to bear has been decisive.    

       2. Coalition forces have adopted a "no escape" policy. ISIS-controlled cities have been surrounded and escape routes cut off, leaving ISIS fighters with a choice between surrender and death. (Some admittedly get both.)  The bad effect - resistance is stiff with heavy civilian and coalition casualties. The good effect - ISIS combatants in Iraq are being eliminated in Iraq rather than being allowed to survive to fight in Syria; few are surviving to return home to fight in Europe, Russia, Kazakhstan, or Pakistan.  Claims of 20,000 or more ISIS fighters killed cannot be substantiated, but are reasonable, given the firepower and targeting. 

      3. In the complicated patchwork of Iraq and Syria, the Trump administration has adopted a "my enemy's enemy is my friend" policy on the battlfield. In Iraq, Iran-oriented militias have taken blocking posiitons outside of the major cities while the Iraqis have done the urban fighting; In Syria, we have agreed to "deconfliction zones" where Russian-supported Assad forces have pressured ISIS from the south while (against Turkey's wishes) we have equipped the Kurds who have attacked the ISIS Capital at Raqqa from the north. This is quite unlike the Obama administration which was paralyzed by the conflicting objectives of the Turks, the Iranians, the Russians, and the Sunni Arabs. For Trump's generals it is simple - destroy ISIS.

    The results since Trump's innauguration:

        - After long delays, the liberation of Mosul - the second largest city in Iraq with some 2,000,000 people - was completed in July;

        - The Free Syrian Army (largely the Kurds) has recaptured half of the ISIS capital in Raqqa, Syria, anticipating complete victory in a few months;

        - The Russians and the US have agreed to enforce operational areas and procedures to avoid direct conflict while focusing on the defeat of ISIS. Assad's forces follow the Russian lead; the Free Syrian Army follows ours.        

    And what will follow:

        - Mosul will require $1 billion of rebuilding infrastructure and housing. With the temporary disloction of some 800,000 residents and the death of thousands, a generation has been traumatized. Years of school were missed under ISIS rule; everybody has witnessed public executions and general brutality; and the nine month campaign brought starvation and use of civilians as "human shields". The Shia-dominated government in Baghdad appears to understand that leadership of the rebuilding must be led by local Sunnis, but the task is immense.  

        - The tragic Syrian civil war with its 400,000 civilian deaths, 6 million internally dislaced, and 5 million external refugees has real hope of being over. While the "Assad must go" refrain has occasional resurrection, it is unlikely. Mopping up will require agreement on who bears the brunt of cleaning up ISIS elements who have retreated to the Deir Ezzor region of eastern Syria - and gets the oil there; who will hunt down the remnants of the al Queda affiliate; how much of the territory that they have captured will the Kurds be allowed to keep; and what form of government will the US-organized Arab Free Syrian Army establish. The political aftermath can be worked out if Trump is allowed to deal with Putin. Those seeking justice can keep waiting. 

        - The global ISIS brand has been badly tarnished. The great majority of the thousands of zealots who flocked to fight for the caliphate in 2014, 2015, and 2016 have achieved their martyrdom, but their earthly reward was transitory. Few new recruits are arriving. The affiliates in Africa, Southeast Asia, and South Asia who pledged their allegiance to Caliph Abu Bakr al-Bagdadi (who may have himself been killed in a Russian airstrike) will return to their local grievances. 

        - In all likelihood, the Trump administration will not be concerned about the conservative/authoritarian direction of  government in Turkey or Egypt, the tactics of the Saudi's for restoring order in Yemen or Quatar, or the many other ancient squabbles in the region. Unlike the Bush and Obama years, we will not be there to spread the Enlightenment or foster an Islamic Reformation. 

     Now, about North Korea,,,,,

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    This week's bonus video is a second version of Trump speechwriter, Stephen Miller, explaining the Trump policy on legal immigration which places the interests of low wage Americans above those of potential immigrants. 

bill bowen - 8/11/17

Trump in Literary Perspective

    If the Trump presidency is a three act play, we are past the Set Up of Act I when the major characters are introduced, the setting and logic of the story are defined, and the nature of the conflict is established. We are probably in the Confrontation of Act II, where subplots are introduced, foreshadowing events occur, the protagonist leaves his comfort zone, there may be a change of direction, and the stakes escalate. The Resolution of Act III lies in the future with the protagonist coming face to face with the antagonist. 

    From Homer to Shakespeare and F. Scott Fitzgerald the concept of the hero's tragic flaw has filled literature. For Achilles, Macbeth and Jay Gatsby a lack of self awareness, a lack of judgement, or hubris brought down the otherwise heroic central character. Greek playwrights often had the gods intervene. There is also the conventional character arc, in which the protagonist grows and in the end is capable of things that were impossible in the beginning.

    For those hoping for a happy ending, the character arc will have to bend pretty significantly, or the gods will have to intervene for Donald Trump.  Consider: 

        - During the decade of Republican ascendancy, the blocking and tackling was led by Reince Priebus, first in Wisconsin and since 2011 as chair of the Republican National Committee.  Recruiting candidates, fundraising, organizing databases, supporting phone banks, building state and local party structures for Get Out The Vote. While the Democratic National Committee leaned over backward to help Hillary defeat Bernie Sanders, Priebus played it straight. When Trump triumphed over the party establishment's preferred candidates, Priebus eschewed the Never Trump movement, and swung all of the power of the party behind Trump's candidacy. While Trump had the big rallies and energized outsiders, Priebus had the database, the field offices, and the staff to guide the volunteers. When he appointed the party leader as Chief of Staff, Trump seemed to understand Priebus' value, but he is gone -  a victim of Anthony Scaramucci's 10 day wrecking ball, leaks by self-serving staff members, and his inability to get Congress to pass Healthcare legislation. Exit Stage Right. 

        - During the decade of Republican ascendancy, for Middle America the media came less and less to mean the New York Times and CBS, and more to mean talk radio and Fox News. Rush Limbaugh, Michael Savage, and Mark Levin are still going strong, but in twelve short months Trump has declared war on the mainstream media, and Fox has become a shell of its former self. Anointed star Megyn Kelly, gone. Roger Ailes, gone. Top Ailes assistant Bill Shine, gone. Bill O'Reilly, gone. Sean Hannity and Tucker Carlson still offer conservative advocacy, but the rest of the cast is either B Team or trying to truly be "fair and balanced" and there is nowhere to go for the viewer who wants a pro-Trump perspective on why Chuck Schumer and CNN are hyperventilating each day. Meanwhile those looking for clever star power are migrating to Rachel Maddow for their evening entertainment. If there is any evidence that team Trump would like to help their most loyal news partner, it is missing in the daily White House briefing room where most time is spent jousting with reporters from CNN, the New York Times, and others who have written their stories before entering the room. Exit Stage Right. 

        - Under Trump, FDR's "fireside chats" - speaking directly to the American people - have become midnight Tweets. Perhaps he is a victim of the technology. In a different era his utterings would have had limited distribution. But the gods gave us Twitter, and Trump gave us stream of consciousness in 140 characters. No Marc Anthony; no Churchill. Not even Mao's little red book. It is not as if Trump does not have great speech writers to polish his thinking - they have been evident at the inaugural, in the State of the Union address, and in several foreign speeches, but the hubris makes him believe that immediate dissemination of a midnight thought is more important than a reasoned argument. Each time that a day goes by without a tweet hope arises that the protagonist is growing, but it is a faint hope.

        - Perhaps because of his "sole proprietor" business background, Trump does not understand the need for a chorus. Six months into his term, he had Senate approval for only 50 department political nominees, about a quarter of the rate for recent presidents. Only 5 of the 15 departments have deputy directors. Some of this is due to Democratic obstructionism; some is due to avoidance of Establishment Republicans; some is due to a lack of appreciation for basic staffing functions.

     Hope remains that Trump will grow; that he will come to understand the importance of early supporters like Jeff Sessions; that he will let General Kelly impose much needed discipline on the White House staff; that he will coordinate legislative strategy with Paul Ryan and Mitch McConnell. Perhaps the loss on Repeal and Replace will serve as the plot turning point; perhaps the Scaramucci fiasco. He will definitely need to up his game before he meets his ultimate antagonist  - whether it be a united Democratic Party in the 2020 election, an out of control Special Prosecutor, or perhaps Vladimir Putin or Kim Jong Un. 

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    In this week's video senior White House staffer Stephen Miller tangles with CNN's senior White House correspondent in explaining the forthcoming change in legal "green card" immigration policy - reducing the number of unskilled immigrants to help current working class Americans, and focusing on immigrants who have skills which America needs rather than members of extended families. This is a problem for the Democrats who understand the need to reclaim working middle class American voters, but are wed to open borders.   

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