To the core Trump voters and most Democrats, there isn't much point in trying to grade the performance of President Trump. He is the first president to speak for them in a long, long time or he is a tyrannical, corrupt pig. For the rest of us, who make the difference in elections and who are hoping for solutions to the nations ills, there has been enough time for emotions to calm and for hard evidence to surface. Let's look at three dimensions: is he working on the right things; does he frame solutions well; and can he get things done?
I. The Right Things: A
First, there are a few things that afforded little choice: the Mueller investigation of Russian campaign meddling; the rapidly emerging North Korean nuclear threat; an unusual spate of disasters - Hurricanes Harvey, Irma, and Maria; the Las Vegas shootings; the California wild fires.
Immigration has been a growing national issue for decades, with discontent on both the Left and the Right. He is addressing it directly.
Radical Islamic terrorism, and turmoil in the Middle East in general, was a major unsolved feature of the Obama presidency. He is addressing it directly.
The economy has been growing at a sub-optimal 1-2% per year since the financial crisis of 2007. He is aggressive on trade policy, regulatory relief, and tax policy, and will soon appoint a new Federal Reserve Board Chair.
Reform of the healthcare system remains on the agenda despite the inability of the Republican Congress to pass any legislation.
Trump and the Republican Senate have an opportunity to re-shape the federal judiciary for a decade or more.
II. Framing of Solutions: B+
- Although upset about his Attorney General recusing himself from the Russia investigation, Trump has let the system work, ignoring suggestions that he fire Mueller and making the White House staff available for interrogations. What will be will be - and it is unlikely to impact him directly. Excellent.
- With Kim Jong Un on the brink of a nuclear missile capability, Trump does not have the luxury of past presidents in adopting varying levels of accommodation. All options are on the table; enforcement of harsh sanctions has been advanced; and China has been pushed into the forefront. Excellent.
- The appropriate local, state, and federal disaster recovery agencies have taken center stage, with the President - in the case of the hurricanes- appearing to provide moral support and asking Congress for billions in reconstruction funding. Good, except for Puerto Rico.
- Unlike President Obama, Trump has attempted to address immigration through legislation rather than simply through executive edicts. His proposals are comprehensive - legal status for children; greater resources for border security and the related court system; a shift from "family relationship" priorities to "American needs" priorities; enforcement of e-verify for employers; reduced visas for foreigners displacing American workers. Excellent.
- Trump has taken a Realpolitik approach to the Middle East, aligning with Sunni Saudi Arabia against Shia Iran, seeking de facto partition of Syria in concert with the Russians, and allowing the generals to determine tactics and (to a modest extent) troop levels. Excellent.
- To help the economy, Trump blew up the Trans Pacific Partnership, is renegotiating NAFTA, has the EPA - and to a lesser extent the Department of Labor - significantly reducing regulatory constraints. He has proposed comprehensive tax reform with globally competitive corporate rates, reductions for the middle class (but probably not the upper earners), and significant streamlining - but perhaps fiscal irresponsibility. Good scope.
- Absent legislation, Trump has eliminated the Obamacare provision which required employers with ethical reservations to provide birth control and will allow insurers to sell inexpensive, stripped down policies to the millions who want them. He has not dealt with disparity between states which expanded Medicaid under Obamacare and those that did not. Fair.
- Trump's team put forward an excellent, conservative jurist to replace Antonin Scalia on the Supreme Court. He has put forward some 57 nominees for federal District and Appeals courts. An additional 100 seats are unfilled. Good on quality; fair on numbers.
III. Getting Things Done: C
Two themes dominate the discussion of results.
- Given the Democrats scorched earth #Resist reaction to the election of Trump, the Republicans adopted a "Republicans only" approach to legislating without adequate majorities to tolerate many defections or leadership capable of maintaining order. Much of the administration's energy went into the three failed efforts to Repeal and Replace Obamacare. While the Senate did change the rules to approve Justice Gorsuch with 51 votes, they are still arguing about the right of opposition party home state senators to veto court nominees, and only 7 have been approved to date. House Republicans could not be counted on to pass a budget or raise the debt ceiling, driving Trump to seek help from the Democrats.
- While, unlike President Obama, Trump is good at framing legislation and allowing Congress to engage in the necessary sausage making, he is terrible - no, worse than terrible - at developing relationships with key allies and persuadable opponents. With a paper thin majority in the Senate he seeks battle with Susan Collins and Lisa Murkowski over Planned Parenthood, and with John McCain and Bob Corker over nothing in particular, while not courting Democrats from red States. Add Attorney General Jeff Sessions; Secretary of State Rex Tillerson; chief economic adviser Gary Cohen; San Juan Mayor Carmen Yulin Cruz; and NFL Commissioner Roger Goodell.
That said,
- ISIS is on the verge of destruction in Iraq and Syria.
- The S&P 500 US market index is up 21 % since the election, while the GDP growth rate is pushing 3 %.
- Illegal immigration has been reduced by double digits.
- Every day's Washington Post has howls about some new travesty - withdrawal from the Paris Climate Agreement; withdrawal from UNESCO, the United Nations Educational, Scientific, and Cultural Organization, for its history of anti-Israel bias; review of an Obama administration rule which would expand overtime pay to millions of additional workers.
- And the ball is clearly in Congress' court on immigration and tax reform.
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This week's video is The Donald's "First 100 Days" plan in the halcyon days just after the election
bill bowen - 10/13/17
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