One should be disappointed if the leaders of the CIA and the FBI were not skilled enough in their craft to make investigation of their engagement in the 2016 presidential election look like something from Alice in Wonderland. An illusion here; a feint there; a bureaucratic impasse; a legal conundrum; loud braying from allies on the Democratic side of the aisle; knee-jerk responses from conservative commentators. And all of this takes place as a counter-story to the Democratic media's obsession of alleged collusion between the Trump campaign and the Russians. Lewis Carroll at his peak could not have done better.
What do we know (largely due to the courageous persistence of House Intelligence Committee chair Devin Nunes, and over the shrieks of committee minority leader Adam Schiff)?
Prior to this week:
- The Trump campaign was full of dodgy characters. Paul Manafort; Steve Bannon; Michael Flynn; Anthony Scaramucci - each had their own agenda and client list. High on the compendium of Trump's management deficiencies is the vetting of senior managers.
- The Obama administration politicized government agencies to attack opponents. The lowlight was the use of Lois Lerner's IRS to target conservative tax-exempt organizations as part of a broader pattern of executive overreach.
- Senior Obama administration officials (UN ambassador Stephanie Powers; CIA Director John Brennan; and National Security Advisor Susan Rice), oversaw a program to bypass American privacy laws by wiretapping hundreds of foreign officials, identifying (unmasking) Americans with whom they were talking, and leaking the contents of the discussions to the New York Times, the Washington Post, and other friendly outlets.
- The FBI used the "Steele dossier", paid for by the Democratic National Committee and the Hillary Clinton campaign, as a justification for a FISA Court warrant to wiretap Trump aide, Carter Paige.
- FBI leadership, particularly James Comey, factored politics into investigatory decison making - the decision to not prosecute Hillary Clinton for her "extreme carelessness" which fell short of "intentional or gross negligence"; the "last minute" resurection of the Clinton investigation, which might actually have cost her the election. Attorney General Loretta Lynch was totally compromised by her tarmac meeting with Bill Clinton, so Comey filled the gap, rather than deferring to the Deputy Attorney General.
- A number of Comey's subordinates - Andy McCabe, Peter Strzock, Lisa Page - were ardent anti-Trumpers, loose in their communications, and (in the case of McCabe) prone to false testimony under oath.
- Trump's responses have often been right on the substance, but wrong on the facts, giving the Left ample room for distractions. The FBI did not wiretap Trump Tower, but it did wiretap calls of foreign persons with campaign aides, then unmasked the campaign aides.
And the new news - Stefan Halper:
- Halper, a former American professor at Cambridge University in the UK, has a long history of working between the intelligence community and academia to provide information to political parties about the likely policies and activities of their adversaries. In 1980, he worked for the Reagan/HW Bush campaign to gather information on President Jimmy Carter's foreign policy direction. (HW had been director of the CIA.) The activity was unearthed in 1983, and after a brief kerfullfe, was forgotten.
- He was paid some $1,000,000 through a shadowy Department of Defense account between 2012 and 2017.
- In mid-2016, he reached out as part of an FBI investigation to befriend three Trump campaign aides - Papadopolous (who he paid $3000, and introduced to a Turkish woman associate - and who has subsequently been indicted by Mueller's team for lying under oath); Carter Page (who was the subject of the FISA warrant controversy), and campaign co-chair Sam Clovis.
- Halper has been mis-characterized as a plant in the Trump campaign. He was actually employed by the FBI to investigate selected campaign members who might have Russian connections. It is not clear that he found anything, but the FBI has refused to disclose to the administration or to the House Intelligence Committee either the circumstances surrounding his hiring, or any results of his investigations.
- The next week will dampen emotions, as Trump has appointed Chief of Staff Kelly to oversee a sharing of documents between the FBI, the CIA, and the House Intelligence Committee. The burden of proof lies with the FBI to show that their surveillance of the Trump campaign was not for political purposes, a test which they can most likely pass. In any case,m this should be central to the oversight role of the House Intelligence Committee - making sure that the spooks are not interfering in our elections.
The two investigations - Mueller's and that of FBI Inspector General Michael Horowitz - should be viewed as a pair: Mueller investigating whether candidate Trump colluded with the Russians to influence the outocome of the election (excluding Stormy Daniels and other tangents); and Horowitz investigating whether the Obama administration used the FBI and the CIA to tilt the election in the favor of Hillary and undermine the incoming Trump administration. Niether will ever be proven to the satisfaction of both Republicans and Democrats. In the short run, we will be consumed by the Mueller report, but in a 100 year perspective, abuse of the FBI and the CIA by a sitting administration for partisan political purposes is far more important to the health of the Republic.
-----
This week's video is an introduction to John Cox, the candidate for California governor who won the support of 55% of the delegates at the recent GOP state convention, and who has been endorsed by President Trump and House Majority Leader Kevin McCarthy. The immediate priority is to come in among the "top two" in the June 5, primary.
bill bowen - 5/25/18
GETTING USED TO TRUMP--Contined
6. He has pressed the immigration issue. The wall. Sanctuary Cities.
7. He put unbelievable pressure on North Korea. He used China to do it. Mixing tariffs in to get leverage. He did a successful ICBM warhead defense test over the Pacific. He got their attention.
8.He dumped the Pacific trade agreement. Then went on to issue tariffs on China. The trade war has never happened.
9. He cancelled the Iran agreement and now Iran is talking to NATO. Germany and France visited him prior to the announcement.
10. He moved the embassy to Jerusalem. Israel is happy. Others will follow.
11. He told the NATO guys to pay up and they did. Then he gave them Tariffs on Aluminum and steel. Time to open Europe's markets to US goods?
12. His probusiness actions, trade leveraged negotiations and pushes on the Hi Tech community actually provide some hope for the working men and women of the country. Almost seems like a Democrat. Blue collar American put him in there and it is unlikely that they are unhappy with their choice at this point.
13. A woman leads our UN team. A woman heads the CIA. A woman speaks for him to the press. Women might wonder why they should not support him.
So, will he be able to rally the public to support him in the midterms? Maybe. The rednecks and blue collar guys are hard to drive to the polls. Eight years of Obama followed by the fear of Hillary did it. A bigger question is what is the reason the Democratic base should not stay home and support him? Probably the worst nightmare for the Democrats will be an attempt by Mueller to impeach him. That would bring out the boys again.
Posted by: Bill McCormick | May 25, 2018 at 11:12 AM
GETTING USED TO TRUMP: Difficult as it may be for Democrats to accept and even social minded Republicans the American public seems to be getting used to Trump. His Warning Shot style of beginning negotiations with some outrageous threat of retributions for noncooperation are beginning to being seen as "just negotiations" by the public. Now the media and talking heads are still all over the "dangerous behavior" of the "devil" President. And, the media continues to predict the world will end with every "warning shot" he fires. We are beginning to see the difference between diplomats/ Bureaucrats and business leaders is the way they negotiate and the speed with which they make things happen. Bid and proposal is for the most part the way of the government buy goods and services. Formality and Process is the way to negotiate international agreements. In business alternatives are the key. Leverage is the key. Game strategy is used. Urgency is expected. Lead, follow or get out of the way is a famous motto. Loyalty is demanded. You are with me or you are out of here. In government that never happens--until now. Leak something and "you are fired". Disagree in public after the decision is made and "you are fired". Since Eisenhower's affair in WWII the public doesn't care. The public considered "Tricky Dick" one of the most effective Presidents in Foreign Affairs despite his Watergate dismissal. The public quickly fired Jimmy Carter when he failed to bring home the hostages. Reagan bombed Qaddafi's house, fired the Air Traffic Controllers and took out Noriega without public outrage. So now the public has been shocked over and over with Trump's warning shots and then observed:
1. He took on Obamacare. The congress stalled it. He did away with mandatory coverage and cut his losses.
2. He daily dismantles regulations.
3. He quit NAFTA then did not. Then when the negotiations stalled he put on tariffs. Mexico and Canada are at the table.
4. He bombed the airport in Syria. They used chemicals again and he bombed a lot more.
5. He passed tax reform for both individuals and corporations and repatriated the overseas cash.
Continued in next comment
Posted by: Bill McCormick | May 25, 2018 at 11:09 AM