It is easy to get thrown off track. When President Trump proclaimed that the North Korean nuclear threat was over, he was doing his normal "take him seriously, but not literally" schtick; when the New York Times proclaimed that the Kim-Trump summit was a failure, they were doing their normal "write the headline before the event" anti-Trump journalism. In this most important negotiation of the decade, it is helpful to keep a few major factors in mind.
1. Success requires Chinese concurrrence.
- The breakthrough with Kim Jong Un occurred in 2017 when Xi Jin Ping began to enforce the economic sanctions against North Korea passed by the United Nations Security Council following missile tests. With some 90 % of the Hermit Kingdom's foreign trade being with China, maintaining an intolerable level of deprivation requires Chinese concurrence. Kim has gone to the mountain twice in the past six months for consultations; he understands where the power lies. Ditto Mike Pompeo.
- Any guarantee of Kim's survival will require Chinese participation. After Kadhafi and Hussein, the word of the West has been devalued.
- Our relationship with China is complicated by the $375 billion trade deficit. Xi and Trump have an agreement for a substantial increase in Chinese imports, but there will be much chest thumping by politicians and busineess leaders about tariffs and counter-tariffs. Both leaders know that the current imbalance is not tolerable, and that a true balance is not attainable. As long as there is progress, the deficit should not get in the way of solving the mutual objective of removing the destabilizing nuclear threat in China's back yard.
- Congress can be unhelpful. Trump agreed with Xi to find a way to keep Chinese telephone manufacturer ZTE in business after they violated sanctions against trading with Iran and North Korea - firing senior management; changing members of the Board of Directors; paying a billion dollar fine. The Republican Senate is trying to override that agreement.
2. Time is a big factor.
- Kim, age 34, is dictator for life. Xi has recently had the rules changed to allow him to stay in power for as long as he wishes. Trump may be out of office in 31 months.
- The Iran agreement demonstrates to Kim both that Americans might accept a limited agreement with a finite time frame, and that in our system it is a new game with a new president. It is a nuance probably lost on the Koreans, but a treaty approved by Congress would be a much stronger American commitment than an agreement made only by the executive branch - as was President Obama's style on the Iran nuclear deal and the Paris Climate Agreement.
- Mike Pompeo's objective of lifting sanctions following verified denuclearization within Trump's first term is the only realistic goal.
3. It is imperative to keep focused on the objective.
- Trump critics will become obsessed with the fact that the president is not addressing human rights - which is a total non-starter.
- Good will gestures are important, but not essential - the return of the remains of Americans killed in the Korean War; the conditional suspension of war games with South Korea.
- Other goals can be used as bargaining chips - the removal of American forces from South Korea; a formal treaty ending the Korean War; granting of McDonald's franchises in Pyongyang.
- It is to our advantage to raise expectations on the part of the people of North Korea. If Kim's internal propaganda falsely claims that we have agreed to remove sanctions, so much the better. He promised economic progress when he succeeded his father; instead he has delivered increased deprivation.
- Kim's ego is critical. Witness Trump's rise from the field of 17 in 2016, he understands how to manipulate people. If he chooses flattery, so be it.
4. The essence of debate is whether sanctions will be phased out as North Korea takes (perhaps reversable) steps, or whether they will remain in place until irreversible critical steps are verified. South Korea would probably accept the prior approach; China may also. Trump cannot.
Given the importance of these negotiations, their domestic political significance, Trump's hyperbole, our penchant for immediate gratification, and the amount of anti-Trump bias in the media, it is difficult to judge the likelihood of success. Talk of a Nobel prize for Trump is way premature, but the foundation of personal relationships has been laid, objectives have been agreed upon, and good will gestures have been abundant. The best indicator of real progress is probably the occasional statement by Secretary of State Pompeo - the perfect point man.
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This week's bonus video is an interview with Jerry Yellin, a 91 year old fighter pilot who flew the last mission in World War Two from Okinawa.
bill bowen - 6/15/18
WHEN TRUMP CAN'T WIN with the media he has no reason to worry about what they think. At this point he has destroyed ISIS; instituted sanctions on Russia, Iran, North Korea; bombed Syria; sent Iran back to the nuclear negotiating table with Europe; levied steel and aluminum tariffs on Europe, China and NAFTA; met with North Korea; strengthened immigration barriers, appointed a conservative Supreme Court judge and hundreds of lower court judges; changed the head of the Fed; removed the mandatory participation in the Affordable Care Act; reversed the policy on Cuba; removed hundreds of regulations; passed a new tax plan for corporations and individuals; repatriated Trillions of overseas dollars; and set a pace of work that no one has ever seen before in a public service employee. The result of this? Media disparagement. Congressional disagreement. Democrats in a 4 corners defense agreeing with nothing. Republican old guard shell shocked. World leaders publicly outraged while they continue to negotiate in closed door sessions.
Meanwhile the economy is on fire. He is putting people to work who have been embedded in 2-3 part time jobs for 8 years. He is bringing back to work people who for years have been counted as uninterested in work. He is bringing back to work seniors who were "too old" to hire. He is giving opportunity to work to Hispanics and African Americans. He is slowing the 31 million immigrant migration into America's social service and education system. Democrats and economists are amazed with the number of people still filling jobs while the "so called" unemployment rate is nearing all time lows. People want dignified work and will come off the safety net given the opportunity that capitalism offers when unconstrained.
You will note that last night he threatened more tariffs on China. Today North Korea's leader is in China once again You think the Chinese are not "guiding" him to the table with Trump? The President wants these closed door negotiations to progress at business pace not the government's. He wants deals. He is not in the business of waiting. And, if "warning shots" provide the messages he needs to get action then he does not worry about the media, the Democrats or the "old guard" Republicans reactions.
By the way as you listen to the cries of foul about the separation of children and parents at the border from opponents, consider what we do when we put parents and children in prison for breaking laws? Any different? Shall we allow parents to have their children in prison with them?
Lead, follow or get out of the way. The Chinese leader knows exactly what Trump knows. This is likely about the North Korean leader, the intellectual property theft as well as the imbalance of trade. Don't be surprised if you see a North Korea treaty, a renegotiated Iran agreement, a new NAFTA agreement, a trade agreement with China and the EU in the months ahead. Whether the media likes it or not.
Posted by: Bill McCormick | June 19, 2018 at 12:42 PM