In this age when everything is about Trump, the July 1, elections in Mexico risk passing with little notice in the Norteamericano consciousness. With the election of hard left President Andres Manuel Lopez Obrador (AMLO), a legislative majority for his new National Regeneration Movement (Morena) party, and the rebuke of both the long-governing Institutional Revolutionary Party (PRI) and the more recent establishment conservative alternative, the National Action Party (PAN), our neighbor's 130,000,000 people have opted to change direction from the past three decades which have brought generally fair elections and an improved economy driven by NAFTA and opening of the energy sector to foreign capital. We stand to be significantly affected.
First some stage setting:
- For the past dozen years Mexico's government has cooperated with the United States in a military approach to defeating the drug cartels, but the problem of corruption and violence has grown progressively worse. Among the milestones in the sad story are the defeat of the Columbian cartels in the late 90's (which shifted management leadership to Mexico), the decline of the PRI (whose local affiliates had "understandings" with drug smugglers), and successful efforts to eliminate major cartel factions (which result in turf wars among the survivors.) The official murder rate was 27,000 in 2017. Some 120 candidates for local office were killed in the runup to the July elections.
- The rebellion against the political esablishment had several themes:
-- The global swing toward nationalist candidates who project strength in looking out for their countrymen. AMLO promises a strong leader, capable of standing up to Donald Trump's denigration of Mexico and Mexicans.
-- A promise to shift the war against the cartels from a military focus to one of offering poor Mexicans an employment option through free education at all levels and more social programs to narrow the extreme gap between the wealthy and the lower levels of the population which is among the worst in Latin America, and growing.
-- A promise to revert to Mexico's socialist past, halting the privatization of the electric grid and stopping private oil contracts - and to renegotiate NAFTA.
- From Mexico's perspective, immigration from Mexico to the United States should not be a problem. Since the Great Recession in 2008, the net flow north from Mexico has largely abated. Despite a 2014 initiative which has turned back most migrants from Honduras, El Salvador, and Guatemala at Mexico's southern border, the number of illegals entering the United States through Mexico from these countries exceeds those from Mexico.
It is a new day in Mexico, perhaps the most transformational in generations. Pessimists fear a collapse of the society as the PRI infrastructure is disbanded, the application of military force against the cartels is reduced, and government socialist policies blow up the budget and drive away foreign investment. They point to the potential for AMLO, unconstrained by opposition parties, to emerge in the model of Fidel Castro in Cuba or Hugo Chavez in Venezuela. Should he choose so, he will have a ready rallying cry in resisting Trump's border and trade policies. By design or as a result of economics and lawlessness in Mexico, there could be a return to mass movement to the United States.
The optimists would say that the new Mexican leader has learned pragmatic executive skills during his experience as mayor of Mexico City, and political skills from his three presidential campaigns. Trump needs to complete some of the disruptive projects which he has begun, and a renegotiation of our trade relationship with Mexico might serve both men. The wall and how we treat illegal immigrants will be determined in Washington, but expanded joint (largely US-funded) efforts to improve conditions in Central America and to disrupt the human trafficking could benefit both countries.
With Trump's foreign policy staff overtaxed - North Korea; Russia; China; trade agreements - Mexico is unlikely to receive the attention needed by our neighbor which is in the Emergency Room. And then there is the reality of the $64 billion trade deficit; and the cynical benefit to DemocratIc and Republican politicians of not solving the immigration problem. Absent vision, empathy, and and informed self-interest, the traditional benign neglect seems likely.
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This week's video is a surprising Washington Post piece on Amy Coney Barrett, who would be wonderful member of the Supreme Court.
bill bowen - 7/6/18
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