For conservatives concerned about President Trump's latest tweet, the rantings of the socialist Left, and the New York Times latest editorial, there is one secure refuge. By all accounts, the November election will see the Republican Senate majority expand slightly, but importantly.
The Setting:
- The current 51 to 49 majority is apparently adequate to approve routine legislation and Supreme Court justices who pass the screen of the Federalist Society and exhibit no discernable blemishes. Even realistic liberals agree that Brett Kavanaugh will be on the Supreme Court when the next term begins in October.
- The Democrats (and their independent allies) will need to defend 26 Senate seats to the Republicns 9. (This will reverse in the 2020 and 2022 elections, but that is a worry for another day.) Some 10 Democratic seats are in states carried by Trump in 2016; one Republican seat is in a state carried by Hillary Clinton.
The Projections:
- The two most widely followed prognosticators, Charlie Cook and Larry Sabato, project that only six of the Democratic seats and three of the Republican seats are seriously in play (Toss up, or Lean one way.) In approximate order of risk for the Democrats, that is Joe Donnelly of Indiana, Bill Nelson of Florida, Heidi Heitkamp of North Dakota, Clair McCaskill of Missouri, Joe Manchin of West Virginia, and Sherrod Brown of Ohio. On the Republican side it is Dean Heller of Nevada, Jeff Flake's open seat in Arizona, and Tom Corker's open seat in Tennessee. Cook, who leans slightly Left, projects no way that the Democrats gain two net seats, estimating a loss of two or three. Apologies to the believers in an invisible Blue Wave and the tooth fairy.
- The "big picture" of the 2018 Senate elections rests in the upper Midwest where the move from Democrat to Republican in recent years - governors; state legislatures; House members - represents the majority of the shift of national political alignment. (The Northeast and the West Coast remain Democrat; the South and the Mountain West remain Republican.) Democratic Incumbents Debbie Stabenow of Michigan, Tina Smith of Minnesota, and Tammy Baldwin of Wisconsin are projected as "Likely Democrat". The broader erosion of Democratic strength extends to Montana (Jon Tester Leans Democrat), North Dakota (Heidi Heitkamp Toss-up), Missouri (Clair McCaskill Tossup). Most of this is Trump Country,and he is free with his endorsements, but in Democratic positioning every year is "The Year of the Woman."
- A few specific contests worth watching:
-- Some Democrats think that their day has arrived in Texas with Beto O'Rourke outraising Ted Cruz in a significantly Hispanic state where Democrats haven't held state-wide office for decades. Maybe next cycle when John Cornyn is the Republican incumbent.
-- The Trump-endorsed winner of the Michigan Republican primary, John James, is an African American, Iraq War veteran, and small business owner with degrees from West Point, Penn State, and the University of Michigan. Don't expect much liberal media coverage, but he could join Senator Tim Scott of South Carolina as attractive, reliable conservatives who demonstrate the falacy of Democratic efforts to stereotype Republicans.
The implications:
- Mitch McConnell should sleep better without needing to worry about one or two defections - Susan Collins; Lisa Murkowski; Jeff Flake; Bob Corker; Rand Paul; John McCain (who will eventually be replaced by the selection of Arizona's Republican governor, Doug Ducey.) Under current Senate rules, budget items which originate in the House and are not amended in the Senate can be passed with a simple majority, but other bills require a 60 vote majority, which McConnell will not have. He will have to legislate from the center.
- McConnell and Trump will have a clear path to re-make the judiciary. Building on Harry Reid's decision to allow confirmation of lower court and appeals court judges by a simple majority, McConnell has also cut back on the nicety of home state Senator approvals, focused on appeals court judges, and held the Senate in session for most of August to partially offset the Democrats' demand for up to 30 hours of debate on each appointee. With a total of 860 lifetime judiciary positions, McConnell's Senate has approved over 40 Trump appointees, but has almost 100 in process, and looks to another 50 vacancies beyond that.
- Impeachment remains a Left wing dream; even if the Democrats were to win the House, they would need 67 votes in the Senate.
- If the Republican Establishment wishes to challenge President Trump in 2020, the Senate would be the most likely perch for a candidate. Mitt Romney sat out the 2016 election cycle in deference to Jeb Bush; on January 4, he will become the junior Senator from Utah.
With so much political noise in the House and presidency, a Republican Senate looks to remain a relative bastion of conservative calm. Jinx!
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This week's bonus video is the first step in the utterly logical revocation of security clearances for former Obama officials who have aggressively attacked the president before and after the election. In typical disruptive style, Trump asks the common sense question as to why people no longer in the public service retain top secret security clearances.
bill bowen - 8/17/18
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