We are close enough to November 6 (or dates in mid-October when vote-by-mail ballots are distributed) to know that the Republicans will in all likelihood hold the Senate, but that there is a real chance that the Democrats will take the House. Kyle Kondik who writes for right-leaning Rasmussen, has a current rating of 208 likely or leans Democratric, 199 likely or leans Republican, and 28 toss ups with a trend toward the Democrats. While there are uncertainties about the impact of the Kavanaugh appointment or any potential Mueller announcement, that feels about right. It is worth contemplating the implications of a Democratic House with a narrowly Republican Senate.
Some general considerations:
- The 2020 presidential election campaign will begin in full force on November 7. That the Republicans are not able to sail to victory on the strength of the strongest economy in generations reflects the unpopularity of President Trump. Since legislation needs to pass both houses and be signed by the president, there will be low expectations for meaningful output; rather, the Democratric goal would be anti-Trump spectacle.
- There would be a battle for the speaker position. In 2016, moderates such as Tim Ryan of Ohio challenged Nancy Pelosi for party leadership on the premise that new blood was needed and that the path forward for the party was through purple and red districts where the candidates looked like the district. That dynamic has changed with extreme left candidates beating establishment types in Democratic primaries in New York and Boston, and Congressional Black Caucus leader James Clyburn making noise about his time being at hand. The most likely outcome would see Pelosi remaining leader, with the socialists looking quite a bit like the Tea Party Republicans of 2010.
What would not change:
- Trillion dollar deficts will continue. In her last stint as Majority Leader Pelosi presided over the 2009 Stimulus Act which launched four years of trillion dollar deficits. Much to their discredit, the Republicans who regained the House in 2010 have given up on reforming entitlements while boosting both defense and domestic spending to the point that this year's projected deficit - despite the booming economy - is some $984 billion. Pelosi would offer proposals to cut military spending to support domestic (particularly healthcare) increases and to raise taxes on the rich, but the total won't change.
- Obamacare was Nancy Pelosi's proudest accomplishment. There will be no retreat.
- The cry of the extreme left wing to "abolish ICE" will not see the light of day.
What may change:
- In January Trump sent Congress a proposal to offer up to 1.8 million illegal immigrants who came to the United States as children a path to citizenship, coupled with $25 billion to improve border security, a shift from an extended family-oriented system to a skills-based system, and the elimination of the visa lottery system for under-represented countries. With the Freedom Caucus out of the way, a compromise which would pass the Senate may be possible.
What will definitely change:
- Billionaire Tom Steyer will have his day - there will be impeachment hearings. Representative Al Green's December 2017 House Resolution 646 to impeach Trump for being a schmuck garnered 58 votes. Before 2018 is over, we will all know what constitutes "high crimes and misdemeanors", the process for bringing charges and eliciting testimony, and the history of Andrew Johnson and Bill Clinton. That there is no chance of conviction by the Senate is not the issue - the administration must be ground down.
- Adam Schiff will replace Devin Nunez as chairman of the House Intelligence Committee. Forget anything further on the corruption in the FBI during the Clinton - Trump election. Expect a rush for the high visibility seat as Chair of the House Oversight Committee which propelled Darrell Issa and Trey Gowdy to prominence. Corruption will be sought behind every bush.
- As far ranging as it has been, the Mueller investigatiion has touched only minimally on Trump's business dealings. (The CFO of the Trump organization has been subpoened to testify about the bimbo payments.) Expect the House to offer hearings on local government support for any property outside of the United States, payments by lobbyists and foreign nationals at the hotel in Washington, and the underside of real estate development in New York.
For those who thought the media coverage of all things Trump was bad in his first two years, a Democratic House would provide a relentless two year campaign to deny the president a second term.
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This week's video is an introduction to liberal former California Senate leader Kevin de Leon, who received the California Democratic Party endorsement for the US Senate, helping to push Diane Feinstein off the edge of ethical behavior in the matter of Ford v Kavanaugh. Also weighing on her political calculations - the little-reported discovery of a Chinese spy on her staff for fifteen years.
bill bowen - 9/21/18
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