Californians like to think that we are "early adopters", the first to create and utilize technology and social norms which an eager country will eventually embrace. Facebook, Twitter, Uber, Airbnb, and Paypal; gay marriage, sanctuary cities, and marijuana. Thus it is with politics. California Republicans are lost for at least a few election cycles due to several factors - public attitudes on immigration and the environment; a great party disparity in financial resources; media and popular opposition to Donald Trump; and a huge gap in the effectiveness of party leadership - but the California political concept of which national Republicans should be the most concerned is the Democrats mastering of Get Out the Vote (GOTV) operations.
The eventual loss by Young Kim, an attractive, well qualified Asian-American woman Congressional candidate in formerly staunchly conservative Orange County, who led by 14% after the close of polls on election day but eventually lost by a few thousand votes, provides a good benchmark of how effective the Democrats' GOTV operation was. This is not about fraud or illegality. It is not about a process that is inherently open to one party or the other. (It does raise the philosophical question of what happens to democracy when the productive portion of society comprises a smaller portion of the electorate, but that is a subject for another day.) It should serve as a warning to Republicans across the country about underlying election laws, the effective use of money from large donors, and a bit on the effective use of technology. Let's recap.
California's Election Laws
Democrats have controlled California's legislature and governorship since 2011, with near two-thirds majorities. They also claim the Secretary of State who interprets election laws and writes the ballot titles for public initiatives. They have aggressively used this dominance to pass every possible law to advantage Democratic candidates.
-- Since 2016, Motor Voter registration, by which voting registration is automatic for people acquiring or renewing their license.
-- Registration at age 16 or 17, so that young people are prepared to vote when they become 18.
-- Same day registration, allowing people to register and file provisional ballots at the same time.
-- No identification requirement.
-- Voting rights for inmates in county jails and felons on probation.
-- Permanent mail-in ballots for all voters requesting that status. (With ten to twenty ballot initiatives and fifteen to twenty candidate choices to make, this becomes a popular option.)
-- New automatic mailing of ballots to all registered voters three weeks in advance of the election - by county option in 2018; required for all counties except Los Angeles County by 2020.
-- Acceptance of mail in ballots postmarked or turned in by close of the polls on election day.
-- New for 2018, authorization of third parties to gather vote-by-mail ballots for turn-in at the department of elections or polling places. (Previously the voter had to mail in, turn in themself, or have a close relative or roommate deliver the ballot.)
The 2018 Election
This was the perfect storm. Anger against President Trump was strong; billionaires such as Tom Steyer and Michael Bloomberg donated tens of millions of dollars to political action committees to register voters and turn out the vote; public employee unions contributed millions; the Democratic National Committee targeted seven of the 14 Republican Congressional seats in Orange County and the Central Valley.
-- Political Data Inc. sells registered voter data to either party, and provides training on its use. This includes voter name, address, history in which elections the voter participated (allowing identification of high and low propensity voters), and status as a property owner or a renter. This can be cross referenced with social media data such as group affiliations (National Rifle Association; Planned Parenthood), and political activities such as volunteering and donating. In California, Republicans do not have the financial resources and volunteer base to make significant use of these tools. Democrats do.
-- The California Republican Party has not conducted an organized voter registration drive since 2013, largely for financial reasons. Democrats have made minority and young voter registration a priority. State-wide voter registration is now about 44% Democratic, 24% Republican, and 28% "Decline to State".
-- Voter turnout was over 64% statewide as compared to an average of 52% in the last three non-presidential elections; Orange County was 70%. For all 2018 California elections (state offices; initiatives; Congress; local) spending exceeded $1 billion with over two-thirds of the outside spending going to support Democrats and "outside" dollars tracked in targeted Congressional races favoring Democrats by five to one. Much went to negative ads, but much also went to the GOTV effort which is estimated to have cost some $125,000 per day in Orange County districts.
-- During the 2018 election the Democrats had over 1000 people on the ground in Orange County, and turned in over 250,000 vote-by-mail ballotss on election day. Voting rallies were held at college campuses and in union halls. Using the PDI data they were able to visit homes of Democratic and Decline to State voters for the three weeks after the ballots were mailed out and help them with their complicated ballots. Baskets of ballots were delivered late on election day, and took weeks to count. One apparent Republican victor after another fell as the counting stretched on.
In what should be taken as a confession, National Committeeman Shawn Steele has reflected on the surprising scope of the Democratic operation, which Republicans neither expected nor made any effort to match. The lessons for national Republicans are two: continue to pay close attention to election laws, and devote significant resources to data-enabled Get Out The Vote efforts. While imitation is the greatest form of flattery, it is sometimes appropriate.
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This week's bonus video is an interview with former Canadian Prime Minister Stephen Harper, explaining the arrest of Meng Wanzhou, the CFO of Chinese telecommunications infrastructure company Huawei, as part of the Trump administration's broad confrontation of China. Combined with the assignment of hardline Trade Negotiator Robert Lighthizer to lead the current three month round of negotiations, Wall Street is nervous. Here's one vote for the administration's approach.
bill bowen - 12/7/18
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